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Duke vs Virginia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 77-51
41-26 36-25
Position#8
Record26-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game62.9
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Virginia
USA
Position#19
Record25-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game69.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Duke v Virginia
14 Mar 2026
DUKE74
VIRG70
28 Feb 2026
DUKE77
VIRG51
02 Mar 2024
DUKE73
VIRG48
07 Feb 2022
DUKE68
VIRG69
20 Feb 2021
DUKE66
VIRG65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virginia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#190
W
90-69
90
69
+21
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
83-52
83
52
+31
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-56
100
56
+44
A25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
42-31
48-38
38-28
45-24
40-31
32-27
42-27
25-22
41-29
27-42
35-29
35-25
31-26
36-28
40-24
61-40
35-33
33-30
54-22
46-34
137.6Avg total
78.6Scored
59.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)83.062.9145.9+20.193%
Season at home (17)84.162.7146.8+21.494%
Season away (11)81.563.2144.6+18.391%
Last 10 (10)78.659.0137.6+19.690%
Last 5 (5)81.258.2139.4+23.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)83.663.1146.8+20.589%
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
80-85
80
85
-5
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-97 OT
100
97
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
67-47
67
47
+20
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
72-59
72
59
+13
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
94-68
94
68
+26
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
43-34
37-51
35-44
38-29
27-32
46-34
33-20
34-27
38-35
34-24
32-32
29-26
37-37
33-29
59-27
35-41
39-44
47-39
32-19
58-42
148.3Avg total
79.3Scored
69.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)81.369.1150.4+12.386%
Season at home (18)83.765.5149.2+18.289%
Season away (11)77.574.9152.4+2.582%
Last 10 (10)79.369.0148.3+10.390%
Last 5 (5)80.267.2147.4+13.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (9)77.969.9147.8+8.078%
vs Weaker (21)81.868.6150.4+13.286%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-15-7+0+7+151st half1st half: +11.8+11.81st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +7.8+7.82nd half: +4.9+4.9
-15-7+0+7+151st half1st half: +11.8+11.81st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +7.8+7.82nd half: +4.9+4.9
DukeVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#190
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
54-22
54
22
+32
A25/02
NCAA
67.8Avg total
39.8Scored
28.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.030.771.7+10.383%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.430.271.5+11.289%-
Last 30 away (11)40.331.671.9+8.673%-
Last 10 (10)39.828.067.8+11.8100%-
Last 5 (5)39.026.865.8+12.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)41.430.972.2+10.582%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
33-20
33
20
+13
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
59-27
59
27
+32
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
32-19
32
19
+13
H25/02
NCAA
69.9Avg total
37.5Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.130.669.7+8.573%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.230.371.5+10.889%-
Last 30 away (12)36.131.067.1+5.150%-
Last 10 (10)37.532.469.9+5.150%-
Last 5 (5)39.831.871.6+8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (9)37.230.167.3+7.167%-
vs Weaker (21)40.030.870.8+9.176%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Duke wins
3
Virginia wins
DateGameScore
18/02/25Virginia v Duke62-80
02/03/24Duke v Virginia73-48
12/03/23Virginia v Duke49-59
11/02/23Virginia v Duke69-62 OT
24/02/22Virginia v Duke61-65
08/02/22Duke v Virginia68-69
21/02/21Duke v Virginia66-65
29/02/20Virginia v Duke52-50
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26ANotre Dame100-56
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
07/02/26ANorth Carolina68-71
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
31/01/26AVirginia Tech72-58
27/01/26HLouisville83-52
24/01/26HWake Forest90-69
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HNC State90-61
21/02/26HMiami (FL)86-83
19/02/26AGeorgia Tech94-68
15/02/26AOhio State70-66
11/02/26AFlorida State61-58
07/02/26HSyracuse72-59
04/02/26HPittsburgh67-47
31/01/26ABoston College73-66
28/01/26ANotre Dame100-97 OT
24/01/26HNorth Carolina80-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW93%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWWLWW91%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %93%94%91%
Points / game83.084.181.5
Allowed / game62.962.763.2
Point differential+20.1+21.4+18.3
Avg total145.9146.8144.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+68%71%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeLWWWW89%
AwayWWWWW82%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %86%89%82%
Points / game81.383.777.5
Allowed / game69.165.574.9
Point differential+12.3+18.2+2.5
Avg total150.4149.2152.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%72%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)67% (3)100% (4)
Overtime %7%0%18%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2826293%83.062.9+20.1
2 Virginia2925486%81.369.1+12.3
3 Miami (FL)2822679%82.970.6+12.3
4 North Carolina2822679%80.670.8+9.9
5 Louisville2820871%86.472.0+14.4
6 Clemson2820871%74.565.6+8.9
7 California2820871%78.572.6+5.9
8 NC State2819968%84.074.4+9.6
9 SMU Mustangs2819968%86.277.4+8.8
10 Virginia Tech28181064%78.874.0+4.8
11 Stanford28171161%75.172.3+2.8
12 Syracuse28151354%75.673.4+2.2
13 Wake Forest28141450%78.876.9+2.0
14 Florida State28141450%79.777.9+1.9
15 Notre Dame28121643%73.874.4-0.6
16 Georgia Tech28111739%74.177.3-3.2
17 Pittsburgh28101836%69.971.8-1.8
18 Boston College28101836%67.770.5-2.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke413677
Virginia262551
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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