The Virginia Cavaliers host the Drexel Dragons on 3 November 2026 in an NCAA contest where the model names Virginia the clear favourite, rating them 83% to win against Drexel's 17%. Virginia's season so far shows a strong offensive output, averaging 76 points per game in the projected score, while Drexel is expected to score 65, a gap that reflects the Cavaliers' higher scoring average and defensive consistency. In their last five outings Virginia won three and lost two, with a recent loss to Tennessee 72-79 at home on 22 March 2026, a win over Wright State 82-73 at home on 20 March 2026, and a loss to Duke 70-74 away on 14 March 2026; Drexel likewise has three wins and two losses in their last five, having fallen to Monmouth 57-65 away on 8 March 2026, beaten Northeastern 84-77 at home on 7 March 2026, and lost to Hofstra 51-62 away on 3 March 2026. The projected total of 140.5 points sits below the over-under line of 143.0, giving the model a 43% chance the game will exceed that line, and there is a 3% probability of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virginia winWon
83.1%fair 1.20
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Drexel winLost
16.9%fair 5.92
Best odds65.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Virginia total 87 · main lineActual: Virginia over 87
Over 87
12.0%
@ 1.85-38.1pp
Under 87
88.0%
@ 1.86+38.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Virginia total 91Actual: Virginia under 91
Over 91
5.7%
Under 91
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drexel total 52.5Actual: Drexel over 52.5
Over 52.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under 52.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
Drexel total 57 · main lineActual: Drexel over 57
Over 57
78.5%
@ 1.85+28.5pp
Under 57
21.5%
@ 1.85-28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Drexel total 61Actual: Drexel under 61
Over 61
64.7%
Under 61
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Virginia -34.5Actual: Drexel +34.5
VIRG -34.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
DREX +34.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
DREX
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
Spread Virginia -31.5 · main lineActual: Drexel +31.5
VIRG -31.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
DREX +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Marathon Be
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
DREX
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Virginia -28.5Actual: Virginia -28.5
VIRG -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
DREX +28.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.73
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
DREX
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
VirginiaDrexel
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Virginia win
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.04
DREX win
no forecast
@ 10.75
2nd half Spread Virginia -13.5 · main lineActual: Drexel +13.5
VIRG -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
DREX +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Virginia 2nd half total 45.5 · main lineActual: Virginia under 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Drexel 2nd half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Drexel over 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread Virginia -14.5Actual: Drexel +14.5
VIRG -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
DREX +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread Virginia -12.5Actual: Drexel +12.5
VIRG -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
DREX +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia (regulation)
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 30.00
DREX
no forecast
@ 10.25
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Drexel +24
88.0%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+61.1pp
Lost
Drexel +25
89.6%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+59.6pp
Lost
Drexel +23
86.3%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+59.4pp
Lost
Drexel +23.5
86.5%
3.38
Bet365
3.60
Betano
3.15
-
-
-
+59.0pp
Lost
Drexel +24.5
88.2%
3.04
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
+57.6pp
Lost
Drexel +21.5
82.6%
3.80
Bet365
4.40
Betano
3.20
-
-
-
+57.5pp
Lost
Drexel +22.5
84.6%
3.30
Bet365
3.60
Betano
3.00
-
-
-
+56.3pp
Lost
Virginia under 83.5
78.4%
2.45
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.30
-
-
+40.9pp
Lost
Virginia under 81.5
72.0%
2.92
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
+40.6pp
Lost
Virginia under 82.5
75.3%
2.52
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
Virginia under 87
88.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+38.1pp
Lost
Virginia under 86
85.8%
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
-
-
-
+36.6pp
Lost
Virginia under 85.5
83.8%
1.93
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+36.5pp
Lost
Virginia under 84.5
81.2%
2.02
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
1.91
-
-
-
+35.7pp
Lost
Virginia under 86.5
86.1%
1.88
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+35.5pp
Lost
Drexel over 58.5
73.0%
2.52
Bet365
2.65
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
+35.5pp
Won
Virginia under 87.5
88.2%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Lost
Virginia under 85
83.4%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+33.9pp
Lost
Virginia under 88.5
90.1%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+33.7pp
Lost
Drexel over 56.5
79.1%
1.95
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
+32.2pp
Won
Virginia under 89.5
91.7%
1.55
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
-
-
+32.0pp
Won
Drexel over 56
81.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+31.6pp
Won
Drexel over 55.5
81.9%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
+31.2pp
Won
Virginia under 90.5
93.1%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+30.2pp
Won
Drexel over 57
78.5%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Drexel over 57.5
76.2%
1.99
Betano
2.18
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
Virginia under 91.5
94.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
Under 149.5
71.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 150
72.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 149
70.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Push
Under 150.5
73.3%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 167.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
91.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 152.5
77.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 157.5
85.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 117.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Over 122.5
86.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Over 127.5
78.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Virginia over 67.5
79.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Virginia over 69.5
73.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.1pp
Won
Drexel under 70.5
71.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-22.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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