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Virginia vs Miami (FL) Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 86-83
0-0 39-44 0-0 47-39
Position#19
Record23-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game68.9
Virginia 🏆
USA
vs
Miami (FL)
USA
Position#38
Record21-5
FormLWWWW
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game69.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Virginia v Miami (FL)
13 Mar 2026
VIRG84
MIAM62
21 Feb 2026
VIRG86
MIAM83
05 Feb 2024
VIRG60
MIAM38
05 Feb 2022
VIRG71
MIAM58
01 Mar 2021
VIRG62
MIAM51
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami (FL) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
79-70
79
70
+9
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
80-85
80
85
-5
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-97 OT
100
97
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
67-47
67
47
+20
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
72-59
72
59
+13
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
94-68
94
68
+26
A19/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
33-28
0-0
46-42
0-0
40-37
0-0
32-31
0-0
43-34
0-0
37-51
0-0
35-44
0-0
38-29
0-0
27-32
0-0
46-34
0-0
33-20
0-0
34-27
0-0
38-35
0-0
34-24
0-0
32-32
0-0
29-26
0-0
37-37
0-0
33-29
0-0
59-27
0-0
35-41
145.2Avg total
76.8Scored
68.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)80.968.9149.7+12.085%
Season at home (16)83.264.7147.9+18.588%
Season away (11)77.574.9152.4+2.582%
Last 10 (10)76.868.4145.2+8.490%
Last 5 (5)72.859.6132.4+13.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)72.869.6142.3+3.267%
vs Weaker (21)81.868.6150.4+13.286%
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami (FL)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
81-69
81
69
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
63-65
63
65
-2
H21/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
85-76
85
76
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H29/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
85-86
85
86
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A07/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H11/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
77-76
77
76
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H18/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
39-39
0-0
42-30
0-0
26-35
0-0
33-34
0-0
37-38
0-0
26-27
0-0
41-36
0-0
44-40
0-0
35-40
0-0
44-30
0-0
44-45
0-0
41-41
0-0
34-33
0-0
40-35
0-0
43-40
0-0
32-26
0-0
37-42
0-0
40-34
0-0
31-34
0-0
36-32
145.6Avg total
74.5Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)82.969.9152.8+13.081%
Season at home (17)86.968.8155.8+18.182%
Season away (9)75.372.0147.3+3.378%
Last 10 (10)74.571.1145.6+3.470%
Last 5 (5)75.672.4148.0+3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)69.486.0155.4-16.620%
vs Similar ◀ (4)68.270.8139.0-2.550%
vs Weaker (21)86.469.2155.6+17.290%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +5.1+5.1Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +4.9+4.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +5.1+5.1Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +4.9+4.9
VirginiaMiami (FL)
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#53
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A14/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
33-20
33
20
+13
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
59-27
59
27
+32
A19/02
NCAA
70.3Avg total
37.7Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.530.969.4+7.770%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.030.171.1+10.988%-
Last 30 away (13)35.331.967.2+3.446%-
Last 10 (10)37.732.670.3+5.160%-
Last 5 (5)39.830.270.0+9.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)35.231.066.2+4.256%-
vs Weaker (21)40.030.870.8+9.176%-
This opponent (Miami (FL)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami (FL)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A14/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H21/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H29/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A07/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H11/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H18/02
NCAA
74.9Avg total
36.7Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.236.775.9+2.550%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.436.978.4+4.553%-
Last 30 away (11)35.436.471.7-1.045%-
Last 10 (10)36.738.274.9-1.530%-
Last 5 (5)37.838.876.6-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)30.643.874.4-13.20%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)34.836.571.2-1.850%-
vs Weaker (21)42.135.177.2+7.062%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Virginia wins
1
Miami (FL) wins
DateGameScore
30/01/25Miami (FL) v Virginia71-82
06/02/24Virginia v Miami (FL)60-38
21/12/22Miami (FL) v Virginia66-64
19/02/22Miami (FL) v Virginia71-74
05/02/22Virginia v Miami (FL)71-58
01/03/21Virginia v Miami (FL)62-51
05/03/20Miami (FL) v Virginia44-46
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/02/26AGeorgia Tech94-68
15/02/26AOhio State70-66
11/02/26AFlorida State61-58
07/02/26HSyracuse72-59
04/02/26HPittsburgh67-47
31/01/26ABoston College73-66
28/01/26ANotre Dame100-97 OT
24/01/26HNorth Carolina80-85
17/01/26ASMU Mustangs72-68
14/01/26ALouisville79-70
Miami (FL)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/02/26HVirginia Tech67-66
14/02/26ANC State77-76
11/02/26HNorth Carolina75-66
07/02/26ABoston College74-68
31/01/26HCalifornia85-86
29/01/26HStanford79-70
24/01/26ASyracuse85-76
21/01/26HFlorida State63-65
17/01/26AClemson59-69
14/01/26ANotre Dame81-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW85%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayWWWWW82%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271611
Win %85%88%82%
Points / game80.983.277.5
Allowed / game68.964.774.9
Point differential+12.0+18.5+2.5
Avg total149.7147.9152.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won83% (6)50% (2)100% (4)
Overtime %7%0%18%
Miami (FL)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW81%
HomeLWLWW82%
AwayWLWWW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games26179
Win %81%82%78%
Points / game82.986.975.3
Allowed / game69.968.872.0
Point differential+13.0+18.1+3.3
Avg total152.8155.8147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%59%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)33% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2624292%83.063.2+19.8
2 Virginia2723485%80.968.9+12.0
3 Miami (FL)2621581%82.969.9+13.0
4 North Carolina2721678%80.770.6+10.1
5 Louisville2619773%86.871.8+15.0
6 Clemson2820871%74.565.6+8.9
7 NC State2719870%84.973.8+11.1
8 SMU Mustangs2618869%86.577.8+8.7
9 California2618869%79.073.0+6.0
10 Virginia Tech28181064%78.874.0+4.8
11 Stanford26161062%75.472.5+2.9
12 Syracuse28151354%75.673.4+2.2
13 Florida State27141352%80.077.7+2.3
14 Wake Forest27141352%79.377.2+2.1
15 Notre Dame26121446%74.773.4+1.2
16 Georgia Tech27111641%74.377.0-2.7
17 Pittsburgh2691735%69.971.8-1.8
18 Boston College2691735%67.669.7-2.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Virginia03904786
Miami (FL)04403983
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