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Virtus Bologna vs BC Roma Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 101-88
Projected total 188.2
Scheduled
Position#1
Record7-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game95.4
Allowed / game84.6
Virtus Bologna
Italy
Vs
87%
13%
■ VIR 87%■ ROM 13%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.3/10
Below normal
BC Roma
Italy
Position#13
Record2-6
FormWLLWL
Points / game98.6
Allowed / game98.0
ItalyLega ARound 9· Segafredo Arena
Domestic2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Virtus Bologna host BC Roma in the Lega Basket Serie A. Pythia makes Virtus Bologna the favourite at 87% and projects 101-88, about 188 points in all. Overtime chance: 3%. Virtus Bologna are 7-1 this season (95.4 scored, 84.6 allowed a game), form LLWLW; BC Roma are 2-6 this season (98.6 scored, 98.0 allowed a game), form WLLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virtus Bologna win
86.6%fair 1.15
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
BC Roma win
13.4%fair 7.48
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Virtus BolognaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Scafati
#15
W
108-83
108
83
+25
113avg 81
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
L
81-90
81
90
-9
65avg 81
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#3
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
90avg 81
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
74-91
74
91
-17
62avg 81
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
101-103
101
103
-2
97avg 81
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#8
L
93-100
93
100
-7
no box
H02/11
Lega A
Dubai
#9
L
75-93
75
93
-18
no box
H06/11
Euroleague
Verona
#10
W
95-81
95
81
+14
no box
H09/11
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
91-103
91
103
-12
no box
A13/11
Euroleague
Trento
#11
W
88-75
88
75
+13
no box
A15/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-17
18-19
23-20
35-27
25-23
23-13
14-28
19-26
20-22
17-30
22-15
22-14
22-14
13-23
18-28
21-26
24-24
30-23
20-23
27-33
24-25
31-21
17-31
21-23
17-21
17-27
19-28
22-17
21-22
21-14
26-27
27-18
20-28
23-32
25-16
23-27
24-13
15-19
31-16
18-27
181.7Avg total
90.4Scored
91.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)95.484.6180.0+10.888%
Season at home (4)98.588.2186.8+10.275%
Season away (4)92.281.0173.2+11.2100%
Last 10 (10)90.491.3181.7-0.940%
Last 5 (5)88.490.4178.8-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)78.889.2168.0-10.420%
vs Similar (6)94.294.7188.8-0.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)92.284.4176.6+7.768%
This opponent (BC Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BC RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRoma
Date
Competition
Balkan
#32
W
77-72 OT
77
72
+5
69avg 86
H13/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#7
L
98-104
98
104
-6
92avg 86
H17/10
Lega A
Manresa
#8
L
88-108
88
108
-20
78avg 86
A20/10
Eurocup
Varese
#6
L
103-110 OT
103
110
-7
95avg 86
A24/10
Lega A
KK Bosna
#23
L
80-85
80
85
-5
70avg 86
H27/10
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
W
103-90
103
90
+13
101avg 86
H31/10
Lega A
PAOK
#7
L
111-113
111
113
-2
no box
A03/11
Eurocup
Trieste
#8
L
100-116
100
116
-16
no box
A08/11
Lega A
Ulm
#15
W
83-78
83
78
+5
no box
H11/11
Eurocup
Verona
#10
L
88-89
88
89
-1
no box
H14/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-12
16-21
18-12
22-24
29-24
26-22
13-24
30-34
21-32
25-25
24-25
18-26
28-32
17-17
22-17
28-29
21-16
20-27
26-20
13-22
25-29
26-24
27-23
25-14
22-29
38-32
26-31
25-21
32-28
24-30
26-34
18-24
11-15
24-19
27-16
21-28
31-29
19-23
19-21
19-16
189.6Avg total
93.1Scored
96.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)98.698.0196.6+0.625%
Season at home (4)99.288.2187.5+11.050%
Season away (4)98.0107.8205.8-9.80%
Last 10 (10)93.196.5189.6-3.430%
Last 5 (5)97.097.2194.2-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)94.2107.0201.2-12.80%
vs Similar (7)91.695.9187.4-4.314%
vs Weaker (4)95.079.8174.8+15.2100%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1451%1502%1553%1605%1658%1709%17511%18012%18511%19011%1959%2006%2055%2103%2152%2201%2250%2300%235
0%1452%1555%1659%17512%18511%1956%2053%2151%2250%235
Pythia expects about 188 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 185-189 (12%).
Over/Under 168
Over 168
89.2%
Under 168
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173
Over 173
82.3%
Under 173
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 178
Over 178
73.1%
Under 178
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Virtus Bologna total 84.5
Over 84.5
93.9%
Under 84.5
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Bologna total 88.5
Over 88.5
87.8%
Under 88.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Bologna total 92.5
Over 92.5
78.3%
Under 92.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BC Roma total 80.5
Over 80.5
75.5%
Under 80.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BC Roma total 84.5
Over 84.5
61.4%
Under 84.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BC Roma total 88.5
Over 88.5
45.8%
Under 88.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-211%-181%-152%-123%-94%-65%-34%+08%+39%+69%+99%+1210%+158%+187%+216%+245%+273%+302%+331%+361%+391%+42
0%-211%-153%-95%-38%+39%+910%+157%+215%+272%+331%+39
Margin from Virtus Bologna's side (positive = Virtus Bologna win). Pythia's expected margin is +12.9; Virtus Bologna win by 1+ in 80% of simulations.
Spread Virtus Bologna -3
VIR -3
82.0%
ROM +3
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
VIR
No market prices yet.
ROM
No market prices yet.
Spread Virtus Bologna 0
VIR 0
86.6%
ROM 0
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
VIR
No market prices yet.
ROM
No market prices yet.
Spread Virtus Bologna +3
VIR +3
90.8%
ROM -3
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
VIR
No market prices yet.
ROM
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.9-1.9
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.9-1.9
Virtus BolognaBC Roma
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Scafati
#15
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#8
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H02/11
Lega A
Dubai
#9
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H06/11
Euroleague
Verona
#10
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H09/11
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A13/11
Euroleague
Trento
#11
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A15/11
Lega A
86.7Avg total
43.7Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.342.687.9+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.942.390.3+5.667%-
Last 30 away (15)42.742.985.6-0.353%-
Last 10 (10)43.743.086.7+0.760%-
Last 5 (5)42.644.487.0-1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)40.842.082.8-1.220%-
vs Similar (6)45.547.893.3-2.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)46.441.287.6+5.374%-
This opponent (BC Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BC RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Balkan
#32
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H13/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#7
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H17/10
Lega A
Manresa
#8
L
46-57
46
57
-11
A20/10
Eurocup
Varese
#6
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A24/10
Lega A
KK Bosna
#23
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H27/10
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
L
51-53
51
53
-2
H31/10
Lega A
PAOK
#7
L
60-61
60
61
-1
A03/11
Eurocup
Trieste
#8
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A08/11
Lega A
Ulm
#15
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H11/11
Eurocup
Verona
#10
L
50-52
50
52
-2
H14/11
Lega A
95.4Avg total
46.8Scored
48.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (15)47.148.195.3-1.033%-
Last 30 at home (8)45.042.987.9+2.150%-
Last 30 away (7)49.654.1103.7-4.614%-
Last 10 (10)46.848.695.4-1.820%-
Last 5 (5)50.451.6102.0-1.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)50.055.2105.2-5.20%-
vs Similar (7)46.947.694.4-0.743%-
vs Weaker (4)44.842.086.8+2.850%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 92.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.821.9
55.0%
54.3%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.8
36.3%
34.3%29.4
🏀 Free throws24.819.7
79.4%
74.6%19.7
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
BC Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BC Roma: 91.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.722.2
60.5%
54.3%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.710.2
34.3%
34.3%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.716.7
80.7%
74.6%16.7
They take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Virtus Bologna
WLWLLLLWLW
BC Roma
LWLLWLLLLW
#1
League position
#13
+3.7
Net rating
+0.8
102.2
Offensive rating
100.1
98.4
Defensive rating
99.3
54.8%
Effective FG%
56.5%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
14.0%
Turnover %
16.6%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.31
36.3%
3-point %
34.3%
57.7%
Assist %
59.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence102.2 · 100.1Defence98.4 · 99.3Shooting54.8% · 56.5%3-point %36.3% · 34.3%Ball care14.0% · 16.6%Free throws0.37 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Virtus Bologna   ■ BC Roma
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Virtus Bologna wins
0
BC Roma wins
No previous meetings.
Virtus Bolognalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ATrento88-75
13/11/26AAnadolu Efes91-103
09/11/26HVerona95-81
06/11/26HDubai75-93
02/11/26HTrieste93-100
30/10/26HBesiktas101-103
28/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas74-91
25/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-94 OT
21/10/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv81-90
18/10/26HScafati108-83
BC Romalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HVerona88-89
11/11/26HUlm83-78
08/11/26ATrieste100-116
03/11/26APAOK111-113
31/10/26HScafati103-90
27/10/26HKK Bosna80-85
24/10/26AVarese103-110 OT
20/10/26AManresa88-108
17/10/26HVenezia98-104
13/10/26HBalkan77-72 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virtus Bologna
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW88%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%75%100%
Points / game95.498.592.2
Allowed / game84.688.281.0
Point differential+10.8+10.2+11.2
Avg total180.0186.8173.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %12%0%25%
BC Roma
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL25%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game98.699.298.0
Allowed / game98.088.2107.8
Point differential+0.6+11.0-9.8
Avg total196.6187.5205.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %12%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna87188%95.484.6+10.8
2 Basket Napoli87188%93.286.9+6.4
3 Olimpia Milano86275%89.981.1+8.8
4 Treviso86275%90.887.6+3.1
5 Maxima Roma85362%87.284.2+3.0
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Venezia85362%87.987.6+0.2
8 Trieste84450%93.888.6+5.1
9 Udine84450%79.980.6-0.8
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento83538%79.884.1-4.4
12 Tortona83538%86.591.1-4.6
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati81712%81.591.9-10.4
16 Cantu8080%78.892.8-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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