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VMI vs Gardner Webb Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 84-66
Projected total 149.5
Scheduled
Position#187
Record3-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game70.4
Vs
94%
■ VMI 94%■ GARD 6%
Pythia win probability
Position#303
Record1-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game61.3
Allowed / game83.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · VMI v Gardner Webb
21 Nov 2026
VMI v GARD
upcoming
11 Dec 2021
VMI64
GARD61
Sections
Game preview & prediction
VMI host Gardner Webb in the NCAA. Pythia makes VMI the favourite at 94% and projects 84-66, about 150 points in all. Overtime chance: 1%. VMI are 3-2 this season (77.8 scored, 70.4 allowed a game), form WLLWW; Gardner Webb are 1-2 this season (61.3 scored, 83.3 allowed a game), form WLLLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

VMI win
93.8%fair 1.07
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Gardner Webb win
6.2%fair 16.14
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VMIUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wofford
#126
L
76-82
76
82
-6
A18/02
NCAA
Western Carolina
#221
L
62-81
62
81
-19
H21/02
NCAA
Samford
#149
L
61-80
61
80
-19
A27/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
L
79-86
79
86
-7
A28/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
L
70-84
70
84
-14
A07/03
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#492
W
115-83
115
83
+32
H02/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#34
L
70-95
70
95
-25
A06/11
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#177
L
68-70
68
70
-2
A07/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#353
W
65-51
65
51
+14
H11/11
NCAA
Mary Baldwin
#373
W
71-53
71
53
+18
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-44
44-38
30-38
32-43
36-36
25-44
33-42
46-44
27-39
43-45
60-31
55-52
28-47
42-48
35-31
33-39
32-22
33-29
38-18
33-35
150.2Avg total
73.7Scored
76.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.870.4148.2+7.460%
Season at home (3)83.762.3146.0+21.3100%
Season away (2)69.082.5151.5-13.50%
Last 10 (10)73.776.5150.2-2.830%
Last 5 (5)77.870.4148.2+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)68.983.0152.0-14.19%
vs Similar (2)62.081.0143.0-19.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)82.768.0150.7+14.767%
This opponent (Gardner Webb) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Gardner WebbUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
High Point
#10
L
87-112
87
112
-25
H14/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
66-75
66
75
-9
A17/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
70-82
70
82
-12
A20/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
L
71-77
71
77
-6
H27/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
61-71
61
71
-10
A28/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
65-64
65
64
+1
A05/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
59-81
59
81
-22
A06/03
NCAA
Uconn
#31
L
46-86
46
86
-40
A03/11
NCAA
Texas
#2
L
50-98
50
98
-48
A06/11
NCAA
Erskine
#420
W
88-66
88
66
+22
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-48
50-64
28-40
38-35
34-48
36-34
37-34
34-43
24-31
37-40
29-30
36-34
27-43
32-38
24-43
22-43
20-54
30-44
33-29
55-37
147.5Avg total
66.3Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)61.383.3144.7-22.033%
Season at home (1)88.066.0154.0+22.0100%
Season away (2)48.092.0140.0-44.00%
Last 10 (10)66.381.2147.5-14.920%
Last 5 (5)61.679.0140.6-17.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)64.885.6150.3-20.87%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)96.565.5162.0+31.0100%
This opponent (VMI) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
58.6%
Under 146
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
46.0%
Under 151
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
33.8%
Under 156
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

VMI total 80.5
Over 80.5
62.8%
Under 80.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VMI total 84.5
Over 84.5
46.8%
Under 84.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VMI total 88.5
Over 88.5
31.4%
Under 88.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gardner Webb total 62
Over 62
65.0%
Under 62
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gardner Webb total 66
Over 66
48.7%
Under 66
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gardner Webb total 70
Over 70
32.7%
Under 70
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread VMI -3
VMI -3
91.3%
GARD +3
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
VMI
No market prices yet.
GARD
No market prices yet.
Spread VMI 0
VMI 0
93.8%
GARD 0
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
VMI
No market prices yet.
GARD
No market prices yet.
Spread VMI +3
VMI +3
96.0%
GARD -3
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
VMI
No market prices yet.
GARD
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: +0.3+0.31st half: -10.7-10.72nd half2nd half: -3.1-3.12nd half: -4.2-4.2
-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: +0.3+0.31st half: -10.7-10.72nd half2nd half: -3.1-3.12nd half: -4.2-4.2
VMIGardner Webb
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VMILast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wofford
#126
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A18/02
NCAA
Western Carolina
#221
L
30-38
30
38
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Samford
#149
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A27/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A28/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A07/03
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#492
W
60-31
60
31
+29
H02/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#34
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A06/11
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#177
W
35-31
35
31
+4
A07/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#353
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H11/11
NCAA
Mary Baldwin
#373
W
38-18
38
18
+20
H14/11
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.1Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.836.970.7-3.230%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.333.370.6+4.050%-
Last 30 away (16)30.740.170.8-9.412%-
Last 10 (10)35.134.869.9+0.340%-
Last 5 (5)38.629.868.4+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)32.239.471.6-7.317%-
vs Similar (2)29.540.570.0-11.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)42.328.070.3+14.3100%-
This opponent (Gardner Webb) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Gardner WebbLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
High Point
#10
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H14/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A17/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A20/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H27/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
24-31
24
31
-7
A28/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A05/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A06/03
NCAA
Uconn
#31
L
24-43
24
43
-19
A03/11
NCAA
Texas
#2
L
20-54
20
54
-34
A06/11
NCAA
Erskine
#420
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H12/11
NCAA
69.3Avg total
29.3Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.040.371.3-9.227%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.937.571.5-3.640%-
Last 30 away (15)28.143.071.1-14.913%-
Last 10 (10)29.340.069.3-10.720%-
Last 5 (5)26.639.866.4-13.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)30.641.672.2-11.019%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)36.030.566.5+5.5100%-
This opponent (VMI) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
VMI wins
1
Gardner Webb wins
DateGameScore
11/12/21VMI v Gardner Webb64-61
18/12/20Gardner Webb v VMI88-77
VMIlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HMary Baldwin71-53
11/11/26HN. Carolina Central65-51
07/11/26AUTSA Roadrunners68-70
06/11/26ASMU Mustangs70-95
02/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg115-83
07/03/26ANC Greensboro70-84
28/02/26AChattanooga Mocs79-86
27/02/26ASamford61-80
21/02/26HWestern Carolina62-81
18/02/26AWofford76-82
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HErskine88-66
06/11/26ATexas50-98
03/11/26AUconn46-86
06/03/26AHigh Point59-81
05/03/26AUSC Upstate65-64
28/02/26AUSC Upstate61-71
27/02/26HUNC Asheville71-77
20/02/26ARadford70-82
17/02/26ACharleston Southern66-75
14/02/26HHigh Point87-112

📊 11. Overall Statistics

VMI
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW60%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%100%0%
Points / game77.883.769.0
Allowed / game70.462.382.5
Point differential+7.4+21.3-13.5
Avg total148.2146.0151.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Gardner Webb
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game61.388.048.0
Allowed / game83.366.092.0
Point differential-22.0+22.0-44.0
Avg total144.7154.0140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Furman440100%94.568.0+26.5
2 Citadel32167%94.361.3+33.0
3 Western Carolina32167%97.074.3+22.7
4 VMI53260%77.870.4+7.4
5 NC Greensboro42250%81.070.8+10.2
6 Chattanooga Mocs42250%84.279.5+4.8
7 Wofford42250%80.078.2+1.8
8 Mercer52340%78.280.6-2.4
9 Samford31233%77.378.7-1.3
10 East Tennessee St31233%65.368.3-3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big South conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 High Point440100%76.559.0+17.5
2 Longwood43175%94.267.2+27.0
3 UNC Asheville42250%81.581.8-0.2
4 Charleston Southern31233%73.776.3-2.7
5 Gardner Webb31233%61.383.3-22.0
6 USC Upstate41325%75.068.8+6.2
7 Winthrop3030%89.094.7-5.7
8 Radford3030%59.776.7-17.0
9 Presbyterian3030%71.790.7-19.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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