PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Wake Forest will host Monmouth on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model designates Wake Forest as the clear favourite, assigning it a 94% chance of victory largely because of their 2-1 record, 72.0 points per game and 66.7 allowed per game, compared with Monmouth's 0-3 record, 56.7 points per game and 82.3 allowed per game. Wake Forest has gone 2-0 at home, scoring 82.5 points per game and conceding 63.0, while Monmouth has struggled on the road, going 0-3 and allowing 82.3 points per game. In the last five games, Wake Forest has won three and lost two, with a recent 82-64 win over Charleston Southern at home, whereas Monmouth has won only one of its last five, losing to Rhode Island, Bradley and St. John's. The Pythia model projects a final score of 84-66, a total of 149.3 points, and gives Wake Forest a 94% probability of covering the spread and a 6% chance for Monmouth to win. The game is expected to finish in regulation, with only a 2% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 72.0 | 66.7 | 138.7 | +5.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 82.5 | 63.0 | 145.5 | +19.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 51.0 | 74.0 | 125.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.1 | 74.1 | 148.2 | +0.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.6 | 72.0 | 146.6 | +2.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 71.6 | 83.2 | 154.8 | -11.6 | 8% |
| vs Similar (13) | 80.3 | 73.8 | 154.2 | +6.5 | 77% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 80.2 | 66.8 | 147.0 | +13.4 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 56.7 | 82.3 | 139.0 | -25.7 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (3) | 56.7 | 82.3 | 139.0 | -25.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.5 | 72.6 | 141.1 | -4.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.6 | 77.2 | 139.8 | -14.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 61.3 | 77.3 | 138.6 | -16.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (17) | 72.0 | 68.1 | 140.1 | +3.9 | 65% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 78.5 | 73.8 | 152.3 | +4.7 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.5 | 37.2 | 72.8 | -1.7 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.4 | 38.1 | 76.5 | +0.3 | 41% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 31.8 | 36.1 | 67.8 | -4.3 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.3 | 34.9 | 67.2 | -2.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.2 | 33.8 | 67.0 | -0.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 33.0 | 41.8 | 74.8 | -8.8 | 8% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 37.0 | 35.5 | 72.5 | +1.5 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 37.8 | 30.8 | 68.6 | +7.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.7 | 33.6 | 67.3 | +0.1 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 33.4 | 33.5 | 66.9 | -0.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.0 | 33.7 | 67.7 | +0.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.4 | 35.4 | 68.8 | -2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 26.4 | 35.4 | 61.8 | -9.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 27.9 | 35.7 | 63.6 | -7.9 | 14% | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 35.2 | 32.4 | 67.5 | +2.8 | 71% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 36.3 | 34.7 | 71.0 | +1.7 | 50% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Charleston Southern | 82-64 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Vanderbilt | 51-74 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Md.-East. Shore | 83-62 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Clemson | 62-71 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Virginia Tech | 95-89 OT |
| 07/03/26 | H | California | 80-73 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Virginia | 70-75 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Syracuse | 88-83 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Boston College | 67-68 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Virginia Tech | 63-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | A | Rhode Island | 66-84 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Bradley | 41-85 |
| 02/11/26 | A | St. John's (N.Y.) | 63-78 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Hofstra | 69-75 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Campbell | 74-64 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Drexel | 65-57 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Northeastern | 89-83 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Elon | 73-57 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Stony Brook | 82-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Charleston | 63-74 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.0 | 82.5 | 51.0 |
| Allowed / game | 66.7 | 63.0 | 74.0 |
| Point differential | +5.3 | +19.5 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 138.7 | 145.5 | 125.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | - | 3 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 56.7 | - | 56.7 |
| Allowed / game | 82.3 | - | 82.3 |
| Point differential | -25.7 | - | -25.7 |
| Avg total | 139.0 | - | 139.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  Virginia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.2 | +26.8 |
| 3 |  SMU Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.7 | 68.3 | +24.3 |
| 4 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 92.3 | 69.7 | +22.7 |
| 7 |  NC State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 64.7 | +21.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.3 | 68.3 | +20.0 |
| 10 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 11 |  Stanford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 67.0 | +15.0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 74.0 | +12.3 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Duke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 60.3 | +29.7 |
| 15 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 16 |  Miami (FL) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 79.7 | 61.7 | +18.0 |
| 17 | Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 87.0 | -9.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charleston | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 104.7 | 67.3 | +37.3 |
| 2 |  NC Wilmington | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 71.0 | +19.0 |
| 3 |  William & Mary | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 91.3 | 78.0 | +13.3 |
| 4 |  Elon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 69.3 | 68.3 | +1.0 |
| 5 |  Stony Brook | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 64.7 | +9.0 |
| 6 |  N. Carolina A&T | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 68.3 | +8.0 |
| 7 |  Hofstra | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 72.7 | 65.3 | +7.3 |
| 8 |  Towson | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 67.3 | -3.0 |
| 9 |  Hampton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.0 | 68.7 | -7.7 |
| 10 |  Drexel | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.0 | 76.3 | -9.3 |
| 11 |  Northeastern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.0 | 86.7 | -9.7 |
| 12 |  Campbell | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.7 | 79.3 | -16.7 |
| 13 | Monmouth | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 56.7 | 82.3 | -25.7 |
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