West Virginia faces Stetson on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Mountaineers as the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win largely because of their 1-0 season record, 91.0 points per game and only 46.0 points allowed, placing them 28th in the league, while Stetson sits 326th with a 0-2 record, 63.5 points per game and 83.0 allowed. West Virginia's single game has been a 91-46 home victory, and they have won three of their last five games, with recent wins over Niagara 91-46 and UCF 77-62, but a loss to Brigham Young 48-68; Stetson has lost both of its games, including a 55-81 defeat to South Carolina and a 72-85 loss to Clemson, and has three road losses in five outings. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 85-62 score, a total of 146.8 points, and gives West Virginia a 97% chance to win, Stetson 3%. The home team line is -24.5 with a 45% chance of covering, the total line is 142.0 with a 62% over probability, and the overtime probability is 1%. The Mountaineers' dominant offensive output and Stetson's defensive struggles suggest the game will follow the model's projected outcome.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Virginia winWon
97.3%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+2.5pp
Stetson winLost
2.7%fair 36.70
Best odds41.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-2.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (West Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137Actual: Over 137
Over 137
73.2%
@ 1.47+9.8pp
Under 137
26.8%
@ 2.55-9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 142 · main lineActual: Over 142
Over 142
61.8%
@ 1.95+12.1pp
Under 142
38.2%
@ 1.88-12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 147Actual: Under 147
Over 147
49.3%
@ 2.70+15.0pp
Under 147
50.7%
@ 1.41-15.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
West Virginia total 78.5Actual: West Virginia over 78.5
Over 78.5
74.1%
@ 1.38+8.4pp
Under 78.5
25.9%
@ 2.65-8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.65
West Virginia total 82.5 · main lineActual: West Virginia over 82.5
Over 82.5
59.6%
@ 1.83+8.8pp
Under 82.5
40.4%
@ 1.91-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.83
West Virginia total 86.5Actual: West Virginia over 86.5
Over 86.5
43.5%
@ 2.40-1.9pp
Under 86.5
56.5%
@ 1.72+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.45
Stetson total 54.5Actual: Stetson under 54.5
Over 54.5
76.9%
@ 1.37+11.0pp
Under 54.5
23.1%
@ 2.65-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.65
Stetson total 58.5 · main lineActual: Stetson under 58.5
Over 58.5
63.1%
@ 1.91+13.1pp
Under 58.5
36.9%
@ 1.87-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Stetson total 62.5Actual: Stetson under 62.5
Over 62.5
47.2%
@ 2.52+11.2pp
Under 62.5
52.8%
@ 1.42-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread West Virginia -27.5Actual: West Virginia -27.5
WEST -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
STET +27.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
2.40
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
STET
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Spread West Virginia -24.5 · main lineActual: West Virginia -24.5
WEST -24.5
44.7%
@ 1.90-6.4pp
STET +24.5
55.3%
@ 1.93+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
STET
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
SBO
1.87
Spread West Virginia -21.5Actual: West Virginia -21.5
WEST -21.5
55.3%
@ 1.60-2.5pp
STET +21.5
44.7%
@ 2.20+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
STET
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
West VirginiaStetson
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
West VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Tech
#63
L
27-39
27
39
-12
H08/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
L
21-31
21
31
-10
H19/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
25-30
25
30
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A25/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
40-26
40
26
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
26-23
26
23
+3
A04/03
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
32-23
32
23
+9
H07/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
23-31
23
31
-8
H11/03
NCAA
Niagara
#364
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H03/11
NCAA
60.6Avg total
29.8Scored
30.8Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 69
Last 30 (30)
31.8
30.8
62.6
+1.1
50%
20%
Last 30 at home (18)
34.6
29.1
63.6
+5.5
67%
22%
Last 30 away (12)
27.8
33.3
61.1
-5.6
25%
17%
Last 10 (10)
29.8
30.8
60.6
-1.0
40%
20%
Last 5 (5)
32.8
26.6
59.4
+6.2
80%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)
23.0
39.0
62.0
-16.0
0%
0%
vs Similar (16)
31.6
31.2
62.9
+0.4
44%
12%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)
34.5
27.8
62.4
+6.7
73%
36%
This opponent (Stetson) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (West Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: West Virginia win
WEST win
no forecast
@ 1.08
STET win
no forecast
@ 8.25
2nd half Spread West Virginia -12.5 · main lineActual: West Virginia -12.5
WEST -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
STET +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: West Virginia (regulation)
WEST
no forecast
@ 1.09
Draw
no forecast
@ 28.00
STET
no forecast
@ 7.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Stetson over 56.5
70.4%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Stetson over 55.5
73.8%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Over 138
71.1%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Stetson over 54.5
76.9%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Over 137.5
71.7%
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Over 137
73.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
73.8%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 135
77.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Over 136
75.3%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Over 135.5
75.8%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
77.7%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Stetson over 53.5
79.9%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
West Virginia over 78.5
74.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Over 134
79.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
West Virginia over 79.5
70.8%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
79.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
West Virginia over 77.5
77.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
West Virginia over 75.5
82.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
82.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Stetson over 51.5
85.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
West Virginia (regulation)
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 126.5
89.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
West Virginia win
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
West Virginia -3.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
West Virginia under 101.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
West Virginia under 99.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
West Virginia -8.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
West Virginia under 97.5
89.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
West Virginia -16.5
71.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
West Virginia -17
70.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
West Virginia -13.5
79.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
West Virginia under 95.5
85.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
West Virginia under 93.5
80.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Stetson under 73.5
87.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
West Virginia under 91.5
74.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Under 166.5
89.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Stetson under 71.5
83.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Under 161.5
82.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Stetson under 69.5
78.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Stetson under 67.5
71.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Under 156.5
72.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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