PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
On 18 November 2026 the NCAA matchup pits Winthrop against Chattanooga Mocs, with the Pythia model designating Winthrop as the clear favourite at 85% due to their higher win probability and projected 89 points versus 77 for the Mocs. Winthrop's season record stands at 0-3 with 89.0 points per game and 94.7 allowed, placing them 340th, while the Mocs are 1-2 with 86.7 points per game and 82.7 allowed, positioned 266th. In home-only play Winthrop has gone 0-1, scoring 90.0 and allowing 93.0, and their last five games yielded one win and four losses; the recent results include a 79-88 loss to Kennesaw State, a 90-93 defeat by North Dakota, and a 98-103 loss to Queens Royals. Chattanooga's road record is 0-2, averaging 81.5 points and conceding 90.5, with two wins and three losses in their last five; recent outings show a 97-67 home win over Covenant, a 93-97 loss to Penn State, and a 70-84 defeat by Louisville. The projected score is 89-77, totaling 165.4 points, and the game carries a 3% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 89.0 | 94.7 | 183.7 | -5.7 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 90.0 | 93.0 | 183.0 | -3.0 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 88.5 | 95.5 | 184.0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 81.5 | 83.6 | 165.1 | -2.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.2 | 89.2 | 172.4 | -6.0 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 83.5 | 85.8 | 169.2 | -2.2 | 25% |
| vs Similar (3) | 71.0 | 80.0 | 151.0 | -9.0 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (22) | 85.4 | 76.8 | 162.2 | +8.6 | 73% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 86.7 | 82.7 | 169.3 | +4.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 97.0 | 67.0 | 164.0 | +30.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 81.5 | 90.5 | 172.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.5 | 81.6 | 165.1 | +1.9 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.2 | 83.0 | 169.2 | +3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 71.4 | 76.5 | 147.9 | -5.1 | 25% |
| vs Similar (13) | 75.3 | 79.6 | 154.9 | -4.3 | 31% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 86.1 | 69.8 | 155.9 | +16.4 | 62% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.3 | 35.4 | 74.7 | +3.9 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.0 | 33.6 | 74.6 | +7.4 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.4 | 37.5 | 74.9 | -0.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.8 | 37.6 | 73.4 | -1.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 38.6 | 74.8 | -2.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 38.5 | 35.5 | 74.0 | +3.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 31.7 | 42.7 | 74.3 | -11.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (22) | 40.0 | 35.3 | 75.4 | +4.7 | 73% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.8 | 36.2 | 73.0 | +0.5 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 39.1 | 34.8 | 73.9 | +4.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 34.1 | 37.9 | 72.0 | -3.9 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.6 | 39.1 | 78.7 | +0.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.8 | 42.8 | 84.6 | -1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 32.0 | 39.5 | 71.5 | -7.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 35.2 | 37.3 | 72.5 | -2.1 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 42.1 | 33.0 | 75.1 | +9.1 | 62% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Kennesaw State | 79-88 |
| 07/11/26 | H | North Dakota | 90-93 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Queens Royals | 98-103 |
| 08/03/26 | A | High Point | 76-91 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Presbyterian | 73-71 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Charleston Southern | 86-81 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Presbyterian | 74-70 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Charleston Southern | 84-86 |
| 21/02/26 | A | High Point | 87-89 |
| 19/02/26 | H | USC Upstate | 68-64 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Covenant | 97-67 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Penn State | 93-97 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Louisville | 70-84 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Citadel | 85-88 |
| 28/02/26 | H | VMI | 86-79 |
| 27/02/26 | H | NC Greensboro | 80-85 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Citadel | 93-72 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Mercer | 94-90 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Western Carolina | 76-81 |
| 12/02/26 | A | East Tennessee St | 61-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 89.0 | 90.0 | 88.5 |
| Allowed / game | 94.7 | 93.0 | 95.5 |
| Point differential | -5.7 | -3.0 | -7.0 |
| Avg total | 183.7 | 183.0 | 184.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 86.7 | 97.0 | 81.5 |
| Allowed / game | 82.7 | 67.0 | 90.5 |
| Point differential | +4.0 | +30.0 | -9.0 |
| Avg total | 169.3 | 164.0 | 172.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  High Point | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 |
| 2 |  Longwood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 94.2 | 67.2 | +27.0 |
| 3 |  UNC Asheville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 81.8 | -0.2 |
| 4 |  Charleston Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 76.3 | -2.7 |
| 5 |  Gardner Webb | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.3 | 83.3 | -22.0 |
| 6 |  USC Upstate | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75.0 | 68.8 | +6.2 |
| 7 | Winthrop | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 89.0 | 94.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 |  Radford | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 59.7 | 76.7 | -17.0 |
| 9 |  Presbyterian | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 71.7 | 90.7 | -19.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Furman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 94.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Citadel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.3 | 61.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 |  Western Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 74.3 | +22.7 |
| 4 |  NC Greensboro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.8 | +10.2 |
| 5 |  Samford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.0 | 73.0 | +10.0 |
| 6 |  VMI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.5 | 74.8 | +4.8 |
| 7 |  Wofford | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 78.2 | +1.8 |
| 8 |  Mercer | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 78.2 | 80.6 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Chattanooga Mocs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 86.7 | 82.7 | +4.0 |
| 10 |  East Tennessee St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.3 | 68.3 | -3.0 |
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