PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Penn State faces Chattanooga Mocs on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Penn State as the favourite and predicting a 71% chance of victory against a 29% chance for Chattanooga. Penn State enters the game with a 1-0 record, averaging 97.0 points per game while allowing 57.0, and sits at league position 54; at home they remain undefeated 1-0, scoring 97.0 and conceding 57.0. Their last five outings include two wins and three losses, and their recent home win over Canisius 97-57 on 2 November 2026 stands out. Chattanooga, meanwhile, is 0-1, averaging 70.0 points and conceding 84.0, positioned 273 in the league, and on the road they are also 0-1 with the same averages. Their last five games also contain two wins and three losses, with a recent loss to Louisville 70-84 on 2 November 2026. The Pythia model projects a final score of 81-75 for Penn State, with a total of 155.9 points, and assigns a 71% probability that Penn State will cover the home line, while the over on the total is 5% likely; overtime is projected at 5%. The game will hinge on Penn State's early dominance and Chattanooga's ability to keep the contest close.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 97.0 | 57.0 | 154.0 | +40.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 97.0 | 57.0 | 154.0 | +40.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 70.4 | 76.2 | 146.6 | -5.8 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 74.0 | 145.6 | -2.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (23) | 72.3 | 81.9 | 154.2 | -9.6 | 30% |
| vs Similar (6) | 75.3 | 79.0 | 154.3 | -3.7 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 70.0 | 84.0 | 154.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (1) | 70.0 | 84.0 | 154.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.5 | 80.5 | 160.0 | -1.0 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.8 | 81.6 | 164.4 | +1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 71.6 | 75.4 | 147.0 | -3.9 | 29% |
| vs Similar (13) | 73.8 | 79.2 | 152.9 | -5.4 | 31% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 85.2 | 69.3 | 154.6 | +15.9 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.8 | 39.0 | 71.8 | -6.2 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 34.3 | 35.6 | 69.9 | -1.3 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (11) | 30.2 | 45.0 | 75.2 | -14.8 | 9% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.2 | 36.9 | 67.1 | -6.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.0 | 37.2 | 68.2 | -6.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (23) | 33.0 | 39.4 | 72.5 | -6.4 | 30% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 29.5 | 39.7 | 69.2 | -10.2 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.9 | 35.8 | 71.7 | +0.1 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.3 | 35.6 | 73.9 | +2.7 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.5 | 36.1 | 69.6 | -2.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 38.9 | 76.8 | -1.0 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.6 | 41.0 | 83.6 | +1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 31.6 | 37.1 | 68.7 | -5.6 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 34.8 | 36.3 | 71.1 | -1.5 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 41.0 | 31.9 | 72.9 | +9.1 | 67% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | H | Canisius | 97-57 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Northwestern | 66-76 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Rutgers | 62-74 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Ohio State | 62-94 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Iowa | 71-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Nebraska | 64-87 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Rutgers | 72-85 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Oregon | 72-83 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Washington | 63-60 |
| 08/02/26 | H | USC | 75-77 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | A | Louisville | 70-84 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Citadel | 85-88 |
| 28/02/26 | H | VMI | 86-79 |
| 27/02/26 | H | NC Greensboro | 80-85 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Citadel | 93-72 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Mercer | 94-90 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Western Carolina | 76-81 |
| 12/02/26 | A | East Tennessee St | 61-73 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Citadel | 71-78 |
| 06/02/26 | H | Mercer | 79-75 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 97.0 | 97.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 57.0 | 57.0 | - |
| Point differential | +40.0 | +40.0 | - |
| Avg total | 154.0 | 154.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | L | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | - | 1 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 70.0 | - | 70.0 |
| Allowed / game | 84.0 | - | 84.0 |
| Point differential | -14.0 | - | -14.0 |
| Avg total | 154.0 | - | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Illinois | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 120.0 | 45.0 | +75.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 106.0 | 64.0 | +42.0 |
| 3 | Penn State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 57.0 | +40.0 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 59.0 | +37.0 |
| 5 |  Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 50.0 | +35.0 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 57.0 | +34.0 |
| 7 |  USC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 63.0 | +32.0 |
| 8 |  Maryland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 67.0 | +29.0 |
| 9 |  Northwestern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 60.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  Iowa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 54.0 | +22.0 |
| 11 |  Oregon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 69.0 | +18.0 |
| 12 |  Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 68.0 | +16.0 |
| 13 |  Washington | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 76.0 | +14.0 |
| 14 |  UCLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 75.0 | +9.0 |
| 15 |  Wisconsin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 75.0 | 68.0 | +7.0 |
| 16 |  Purdue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 72.0 | +6.0 |
| 17 |  Ohio State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 83.0 | 94.0 | -11.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NC Greensboro | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 43.0 | +53.0 |
| 2 |  Furman | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 61.0 | +39.0 |
| 3 |  Mercer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 |
| 4 |  VMI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 115.0 | 83.0 | +32.0 |
| 5 |  Samford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 58.0 | +29.0 |
| 6 |  Western Carolina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 80.0 | -8.0 |
| 7 |  East Tennessee St | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 65.0 | 75.0 | -10.0 |
| 8 | Chattanooga Mocs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 70.0 | 84.0 | -14.0 |
| 9 |  Citadel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 52.0 | 77.0 | -25.0 |
| 10 |  Wofford | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 59.0 | 90.0 | -31.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 54 | 43 | 97 |
| Chattanooga Mocs | 31 | 62 | 93 |
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