PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Wisconsin hosts Fairfield on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Wisconsin the clear favourite, rating them 96% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 record, 74.0 points per game and 66.0 allowed per game, placing them 125th in the league. Wisconsin has won both of its games, scoring 74.0 and allowing 66.0 on average, and has a 2-0 home record with 74.0 points and 66.0 allowed at home; their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 73-64 victory over Delaware and a 75-68 win over Denver, and a narrow 82-83 loss to High Point. Fairfield is 1-1 this season, averaging 67.5 points and conceding 69.0, and is 245th in the league; on the road they are 1-0, scoring 68.0 and allowing 59.0, with three wins and two losses in their last five, highlighted by a 68-59 win over Bryant University. In head-to-head, the teams have met once, with Wisconsin winning that meeting. The Pythia model projects a 88-67 score, 154.5 total points, and gives Wisconsin a 96% chance to win, Fairfield 4%; the model also assigns a 1% chance of overtime. Wisconsin's 88 points and Fairfield's 67 points are the concrete figures that frame this matchup.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 74.0 | 66.0 | 140.0 | +8.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 74.0 | 66.0 | 140.0 | +8.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 80.7 | 74.9 | 155.6 | +5.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.2 | 74.2 | 151.4 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 84.4 | 85.6 | 170.0 | -1.1 | 57% |
| vs Similar (10) | 79.5 | 78.1 | 157.6 | +1.4 | 60% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 81.2 | 69.3 | 150.5 | +11.9 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 67.5 | 69.0 | 136.5 | -1.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 67.0 | 79.0 | 146.0 | -12.0 | 0% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 59.0 | 127.0 | +9.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.7 | 68.6 | 138.3 | +1.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 68.2 | 65.8 | 134.0 | +2.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 67.5 | 69.0 | 136.5 | -1.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (15) | 71.5 | 73.7 | 145.1 | -2.2 | 47% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 76.9 | 67.7 | 144.6 | +9.2 | 77% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.2 | 33.9 | 72.1 | +4.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 41.4 | 32.9 | 74.4 | +8.5 | 82% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.9 | 35.2 | 69.1 | -1.2 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.6 | 31.3 | 68.9 | +6.3 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 32.2 | 67.8 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 37.7 | 39.6 | 77.3 | -1.9 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 37.3 | 35.9 | 73.2 | +1.4 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 39.1 | 29.3 | 68.4 | +9.8 | 85% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.2 | 33.7 | 67.9 | +0.4 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 34.6 | 31.9 | 66.5 | +2.8 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.6 | 35.9 | 69.5 | -2.2 | 29% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 29.8 | 34.3 | 64.1 | -4.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 28.4 | 33.0 | 61.4 | -4.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 25.5 | 34.0 | 59.5 | -8.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 33.1 | 35.1 | 68.1 | -2.0 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 36.8 | 32.2 | 68.9 | +4.6 | 62% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Delaware | 73-64 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Denver | 75-68 |
| 19/03/26 | H | High Point | 82-83 |
| 14/03/26 | A | Michigan | 65-68 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Illinois | 91-88 OT |
| 12/03/26 | H | Washington | 85-82 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Purdue | 97-93 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Maryland | 78-45 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Washington | 90-73 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Oregon | 71-85 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Bryant University | 68-59 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Vermont | 67-79 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Siena | 61-76 |
| 07/03/26 | A | St. Peters | 74-55 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Manhattan | 71-60 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Mount St. Mary's | 47-69 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Siena | 72-58 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Quinnipiac | 85-79 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Sacred Heart | 78-68 |
| 15/02/26 | A | St. Peters | 74-83 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 74.0 | 74.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 66.0 | 66.0 | - |
| Point differential | +8.0 | +8.0 | - |
| Avg total | 140.0 | 140.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Points / game | 67.5 | 67.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 69.0 | 79.0 | 59.0 |
| Point differential | -1.5 | -12.0 | +9.0 |
| Avg total | 136.5 | 146.0 | 127.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rutgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.0 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  UCLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 69.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 |  Nebraska | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 86.5 | 61.0 | +25.5 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 64.3 | +24.3 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 |
| 6 |  Indiana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 |
| 7 |  USC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 74.5 | +19.5 |
| 8 |  Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 |
| 9 |  Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 |
| 10 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 11 | Wisconsin | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 66.0 | +8.0 |
| 12 |  Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 103.3 | 66.3 | +37.0 |
| 13 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 14 |  Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 |
| 15 |  Purdue | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 71.3 | +6.7 |
| 16 |  Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 |
| 17 |  Michigan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 76.5 | +4.0 |
| 18 |  Penn State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sacred Heart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.0 | 64.7 | +23.3 |
| 2 |  Siena | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 79.0 | +6.3 |
| 3 |  Merrimack Warriors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 65.7 | 60.0 | +5.7 |
| 4 |  Quinnipiac | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 68.0 | 76.0 | -8.0 |
| 5 | Fairfield | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 67.5 | 69.0 | -1.5 |
| 6 |  Iona | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 66.2 | 71.5 | -5.2 |
| 7 |  Mount St. Mary's | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 60.0 | 77.0 | -17.0 |
| 8 |  Marist | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 70.7 | -0.3 |
| 9 |  Canisius | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 81.7 | -7.3 |
| 10 |  Manhattan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 73.0 | -8.7 |
| 11 |  St. Peters | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 49.7 | 59.3 | -9.7 |
| 12 |  Rider | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 58.3 | 78.7 | -20.3 |
| 13 |  Niagara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 56.5 | 82.0 | -25.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 52 | 37 | 89 |
| Fairfield | 20 | 22 | 42 |
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