Youngstown State faces Marshall on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model clearly favouring the Penguins as the clear favourite thanks to their 85% win probability and a projected score of 83-72; the model's rating reflects Youngstown State's 74.0 points per game against 83.7 allowed, a 1-2 record, and their 293rd league position, while Marshall's 80.7 points per game and 76.7 allowed, 1-2 record, 268th league position, yield a 15% chance of victory. Youngstown State's season shows a 1-2 record, 74.0 points per game, 83.7 allowed, and a 1-4 run in the last five games, including a 79-71 win over St. Bonaventure and losses to Central Michigan 78-91 and Ohio State 65-89; Marshall's season mirrors a 1-2 record, 80.7 points per game, 76.7 allowed, a 1-4 run in the last five games, with a 92-65 win over Buffalo, and defeats to Ohio State 74-84 and Toledo 76-81. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 0.0-point spread, with an 85% chance the home team covers, and a 159.5-point total with a 38% probability of the over; the overtime probability sits at 3%. The game will hinge on whether Marshall can keep the Penguins' defense in check.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Youngstown State winWon
85.1%fair 1.17
Best odds1.93
Implied50.0%
Edge+35.1pp
Marshall winLost
14.9%fair 6.72
Best odds1.93
Implied50.0%
Edge-35.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Youngstown State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
50.4%
@ 1.47-12.5pp
Under 154.5
49.6%
@ 2.55+12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
38.4%
@ 1.90-11.6pp
Under 159.5
61.6%
@ 1.93+11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
27.4%
@ 2.55-10.1pp
Under 164.5
72.6%
@ 1.50+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Youngstown State total 75Actual: Youngstown State under 75
Over 75
80.8%
Under 75
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Youngstown State total 79 · main lineActual: Youngstown State under 79
Over 79
67.7%
@ 1.85+17.7pp
Under 79
32.3%
@ 1.85-17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Youngstown State total 83Actual: Youngstown State under 83
Over 83
51.6%
Under 83
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall total 77Actual: Marshall under 77
Over 77
28.3%
Under 77
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall total 81 · main lineActual: Marshall under 81
Over 81
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under 81
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Marshall total 84.5Actual: Marshall under 84.5
Over 84.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
Under 84.5
no forecast
@ 1.36
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.36
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Youngstown State -3Push
YOUN -3
80.0%
@ 2.20+37.9pp
MARS +3
20.0%
@ 1.60-37.9pp
Best 5 market prices
YOUN
Bet365
2.20
MARS
Bet365
1.60
Spread Youngstown State 0 · main lineActual: Youngstown State 0
YOUN 0
85.1%
@ 1.87+35.1pp
MARS 0
14.9%
@ 1.87-35.1pp
Best 5 market prices
YOUN
Marathon Be
1.87
MARS
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Youngstown State +3Actual: Youngstown State +3
YOUN +3
89.8%
@ 1.62+30.7pp
MARS -3
10.2%
@ 2.34-30.7pp
Best 5 market prices
YOUN
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
MARS
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Youngstown StateMarshall
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Youngstown State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Youngstown State win
YOUN win
no forecast
@ 1.90
MARS win
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread Youngstown State +1.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State +1.5
YOUN +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
MARS -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
2nd half Over/Under 84.5 · main lineActual: Under 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Youngstown State 2nd half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Youngstown State over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Marshall 2nd half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Marshall under 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 82.5Actual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Spread Youngstown State -1.5Actual: Youngstown State -1.5
YOUN -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
MARS +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Youngstown State (regulation)
YOUN
no forecast
@ 1.95
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
MARS
no forecast
@ 1.98
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Youngstown State -5
74.4%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+38.6pp
Lost
Youngstown State -2
82.9%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.08
-
-
-
+38.3pp
Won
Youngstown State -3
80.0%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+37.9pp
Push
Youngstown State -4
77.5%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+37.9pp
Lost
Youngstown State -2.5
80.5%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
-
-
+37.8pp
Won
Youngstown State -4.5
75.2%
2.49
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+37.8pp
Lost
Youngstown State -5.5
72.1%
2.67
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Youngstown State -6
71.1%
2.75
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
-
+37.4pp
Lost
Youngstown State -3.5
78.2%
2.26
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+37.3pp
Lost
Youngstown State -1
84.9%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.89
SBO
1.88
-
+36.9pp
Won
Youngstown State (regulation)
83.3%
1.94
Betano
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.93
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Won
Youngstown State -1.5
83.4%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.03
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
+36.9pp
Won
Youngstown State +1
86.4%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.81
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.74
-
+35.2pp
Won
Youngstown State 0
85.1%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Won
Youngstown State win
85.1%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.89
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
+35.1pp
Won
Youngstown State +1.5
86.6%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
+33.8pp
Won
Youngstown State +2
88.3%
1.73
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
+33.3pp
Won
Marshall under 77.5
72.6%
2.31
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.18
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Youngstown State +2.5
88.6%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
+31.4pp
Won
Marshall under 80
80.7%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Won
Marshall under 78.5
75.7%
2.07
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Won
Youngstown State +3
89.8%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +3.5
89.9%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Won
Marshall under 79.5
78.6%
1.89
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.83
+29.0pp
Won
Marshall under 80.5
81.2%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+28.9pp
Won
Youngstown State +4
91.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Won
Youngstown State +4.5
91.3%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Won
Marshall under 79
78.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Won
Youngstown State +5
92.5%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Won
Youngstown State +5.5
92.6%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Won
Youngstown State +6
93.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
Youngstown State +7
94.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Won
Youngstown State +6.5
93.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Youngstown State +7.5
94.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Youngstown State +8
95.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
Youngstown State +8.5
95.4%
1.27
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Youngstown State +9
96.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Youngstown State +9.5
96.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Youngstown State +10.5
96.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Youngstown State over 77.5
72.3%
1.55
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Youngstown State over 76.5
75.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Youngstown State +15.5
98.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Youngstown State over 75.5
78.6%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Youngstown State over 74.5
81.4%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+10.9pp
Lost
Under 168
79.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Under 163.5
70.5%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 168.5
80.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
72.6%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Youngstown State over 72.5
86.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Youngstown State over 73.5
83.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 165
74.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Youngstown State +20.5
99.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 166
76.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 167.5
78.2%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 165.5
74.5%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 166.5
76.4%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 164
72.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 170.5
83.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Under 167
77.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Youngstown State over 71.5
88.3%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Youngstown State over 70.5
90.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Youngstown State over 69.5
91.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Under 175.5
89.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Youngstown State over 68.5
93.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Under 169.5
81.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 174.5
88.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Youngstown State under 98.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Youngstown State under 97.5
92.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Youngstown State under 96.5
90.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Youngstown State under 95.5
88.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Youngstown State under 94.5
86.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Youngstown State under 93.5
84.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Over 135.5
88.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Youngstown State under 92.5
82.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Marshall +24.5
86.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Youngstown State under 91.5
79.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Over 139.5
82.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Youngstown State under 90.5
76.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Youngstown State under 89.5
73.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Over 140.5
80.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Marshall over 61.5
83.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Over 144.5
73.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Over 145.5
71.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Lost
Marshall over 63.5
78.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Won
Marshall +19.5
75.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
Marshall over 65.5
71.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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