Adelaide Lightning W vs Geelong United W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 25 Feb 2012

Tip-off: 04:00

Final 71-73

19-25 11-13 20-17 21-18

Position#1

Record18-4

FormWWWWL

Points / game77.0

Allowed / game67.5

Adelaide Lightning W

Geelong United W 🏆

Position#3

Record15-7

FormWWLWL

Points / game81.8

Allowed / game75.0

NBL WWNBL Women - Semi-finals

Women2011-12

Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Geelong United W winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Perth Lynx W

78-57

+21

A17/12

NBL W

Townsville W

80-68

+12

H07/01

NBL W

Perth Lynx W

84-51

+33

A13/01

NBL W

Bendigo W

70-54

+16

H20/01

NBL W

Dandenong W

61-81

-20

A21/01

NBL W

Logan W

63-52

+11

A27/01

NBL W

Townsville W

64-61

A28/01

NBL W

Bendigo W

97-87 OT

+10

A04/02

NBL W

Geelong United W

71-58

+13

H10/02

NBL W

Dandenong W

51-82

-31

H18/02

NBL W

22-19

21-9

17-18

18-11

21-11

19-21

13-13

27-23

20-12

25-18

25-6

14-15

25-18

24-18

6-9

15-9

14-22

11-16

18-25

18-18

8-13

19-14

15-16

21-9

23-11

15-19

13-16

13-15

31-28

18-21

17-22

16-11

19-15

14-19

21-13

17-11

7-8

17-17

10-30

17-27

137.0Avg total

71.9Scored

65.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (22)	77.0	67.5	144.5	+9.4	82%
Season at home (11)	78.7	67.6	146.4	+11.1	82%
Season away (11)	75.2	67.5	142.6	+7.7	82%
Last 10 (10)	71.9	65.1	137.0	+6.8	80%
Last 5 (5)	69.2	68.0	137.2	+1.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	69.0	82.2	151.2	-13.2	0%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	75.7	76.7	152.4	-1.0	60%
vs Weaker (14)	80.9	63.0	143.9	+17.9	93%

This opponent (Geelong United W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Geelong United W Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Canberra C. Acad. W

78-85

-7

A18/12

NBL W

Townsville W

92-75

+17

H06/01

NBL W

Sydney W

80-71

A13/01

NBL W

AIS W

#10

103-58

103

+45

A21/01

NBL W

Bendigo W

56-74

-18

H28/01

NBL W

Townsville W

73-64

A03/02

NBL W

Logan W

83-80

A05/02

NBL W

Adelaide Lightning W

58-71

-13

A10/02

NBL W

Perth Lynx W

81-56

+25

H11/02

NBL W

Logan W

65-90

-25

H18/02

NBL W

19-19

24-13

13-26

22-27

21-18

30-16

21-24

20-17

25-13

19-23

21-24

15-11

30-15

28-6

30-18

15-19

16-22

18-19

12-14

10-19

18-7

20-22

17-18

18-17

24-25

20-14

18-18

21-23

15-19

19-14

13-21

11-17

25-11

20-16

12-14

24-15

17-22

19-17

11-25

18-26

149.3Avg total

76.9Scored

72.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (22)	81.8	75.0	156.8	+6.7	68%
Season at home (11)	83.1	75.7	158.8	+7.4	64%
Season away (11)	80.5	74.4	154.8	+6.1	73%
Last 10 (10)	76.9	72.4	149.3	+4.5	60%
Last 5 (5)	72.0	72.2	144.2	-0.2	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	86.7	79.7	166.3	+7.0	100%
vs Similar ◀ (12)	75.5	77.0	152.5	-1.5	50%
vs Weaker (15)	85.3	65.2	150.5	+20.1	87%

This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Adelaide Lightning WGeelong United W

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.3	18.9	39.2	+1.4	57%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.2	18.0	39.2	+3.2	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.5	19.6	39.1	-0.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.0	15.7	34.7	+3.3	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.6	15.0	32.6	+2.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	18.2	21.5	39.7	-3.3	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.6	19.0	38.6	+0.6	60%	-
vs Weaker (14)	21.7	17.6	39.4	+4.1	64%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.7	19.3	39.9	+1.4	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	20.2	21.5	41.7	-1.3	38%	-
Last 30 away (14)	21.2	16.7	37.9	+4.5	57%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.0	17.1	38.1	+3.9	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.8	16.8	36.6	+3.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	18.0	22.7	40.7	-4.7	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	19.9	18.8	38.8	+1.1	50%	-
vs Weaker (15)	21.8	18.9	40.7	+2.9	53%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.6	17.8	36.4	+0.8	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	18.9	17.5	36.4	+1.4	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.3	18.1	36.4	+0.2	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.3	17.2	35.5	+1.1	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.6	18.0	34.6	-1.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	16.7	20.0	36.7	-3.3	17%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	18.2	18.5	36.7	-0.3	40%	-
vs Weaker (14)	19.7	16.4	36.1	+3.4	57%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.5	15.6	37.1	+5.9	80%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	22.5	15.8	38.2	+6.8	88%	-
Last 30 away (14)	20.4	15.5	35.9	+4.9	71%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.7	16.0	37.7	+5.7	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.6	16.6	36.2	+3.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	21.0	19.3	40.3	+1.7	67%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	21.5	18.9	40.4	+2.6	58%	-
vs Weaker (15)	21.6	12.3	33.9	+9.3	100%	-

Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Perth Lynx W

43-28

+15

A17/12

NBL W

Townsville W

40-32

H07/01

NBL W

Perth Lynx W

45-30

+15

A13/01

NBL W

Bendigo W

49-36

+13

H20/01

NBL W

Dandenong W

25-38

-13

A21/01

NBL W

Logan W

27-27

A27/01

NBL W

Townsville W

38-30

A28/01

NBL W

Bendigo W

49-49

A04/02

NBL W

Geelong United W

33-34

-1

H10/02

NBL W

Dandenong W

24-25

-1

H18/02

NBL W

70.2Avg total

37.3Scored

32.9Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.9	36.7	75.6	+2.2	50%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	40.1	35.5	75.6	+4.6	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	37.8	37.7	75.5	+0.1	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	37.3	32.9	70.2	+4.4	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	34.2	33.0	67.2	+1.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	34.8	41.5	76.3	-6.7	17%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	37.8	37.5	75.3	+0.3	40%	-
vs Weaker (14)	41.4	34.0	75.4	+7.4	71%	-

This opponent (Geelong United W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Geelong United WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Canberra C. Acad. W

43-32

+11

A18/12

NBL W

Townsville W

51-34

+17

H06/01

NBL W

Sydney W

44-36

A13/01

NBL W

AIS W

#10

58-21

+37

A21/01

NBL W

Bendigo W

34-41

-7

H28/01

NBL W

Townsville W

38-29

A03/02

NBL W

Logan W

44-39

A05/02

NBL W

Adelaide Lightning W

34-33

A10/02

NBL W

Perth Lynx W

45-27

+18

H11/02

NBL W

Logan W

36-39

-3

H18/02

NBL W

75.8Avg total

42.7Scored

33.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.2	34.9	77.1	+7.3	73%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	42.7	37.2	79.9	+5.4	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	41.6	32.2	73.8	+9.4	93%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.7	33.1	75.8	+9.6	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.4	33.4	72.8	+6.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	39.0	42.0	81.0	-3.0	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	41.4	37.8	79.2	+3.7	67%	-
vs Weaker (15)	43.4	31.2	74.6	+12.2	87%	-

This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.0	17.7	35.7	+0.3	37%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.7	17.3	37.0	+2.4	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	16.5	18.1	34.6	-1.6	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	15.5	16.8	32.3	-1.3	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.2	19.4	34.6	-4.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	17.3	21.5	38.8	-4.2	17%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	15.6	18.8	34.4	-3.2	20%	-
vs Weaker (14)	20.0	15.4	35.4	+4.6	57%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.3	18.5	37.7	+0.8	43%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	19.0	17.4	36.4	+1.6	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.6	19.6	39.2	-0.1	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.8	20.2	37.0	-3.4	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	14.2	19.2	33.4	-5.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	19.7	18.3	38.0	+1.3	67%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	16.8	19.4	36.2	-2.7	17%	-
vs Weaker (15)	21.2	17.7	38.9	+3.5	60%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.7	16.0	34.7	+2.7	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.1	16.7	35.9	+2.4	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.4	15.4	33.8	+3.0	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.6	14.9	32.5	+2.7	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.8	14.6	31.4	+2.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	15.5	17.3	32.8	-1.8	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.7	18.5	38.2	+1.2	50%	-
vs Weaker (14)	19.4	13.6	33.1	+5.8	71%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.8	17.9	37.6	+1.9	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	20.1	17.0	37.1	+3.1	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.4	18.9	38.2	+0.5	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.4	19.1	36.5	-1.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.4	19.6	38.0	-1.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	24.7	18.0	42.7	+6.7	67%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	17.3	19.8	37.2	-2.5	42%	-
vs Weaker (15)	20.7	16.3	37.0	+4.5	60%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	36.7	33.7	70.5	+3.0	57%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	38.9	34.0	72.9	+4.9	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	34.9	33.5	68.4	+1.4	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	33.1	31.7	64.8	+1.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	32.0	34.0	66.0	-2.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)	32.8	38.8	71.7	-6.0	17%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	35.3	37.3	72.6	-2.0	40%	-
vs Weaker (14)	39.4	29.0	68.4	+10.4	86%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.0	36.3	75.4	+2.7	57%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	39.1	34.4	73.6	+4.7	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	38.9	38.5	77.4	+0.4	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	34.2	39.3	73.5	-5.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	32.6	38.8	71.4	-6.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	44.3	36.3	80.7	+8.0	67%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	34.1	39.2	73.3	-5.2	25%	-
vs Weaker (15)	41.9	34.0	75.9	+7.9	80%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Adelaide Lightning W wins

Geelong United W wins

Date	Game	Score
10/02/12	Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W	71-58
20/11/11	Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W	87-77
06/11/11	Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W	77-61
05/02/11	Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W	84-68
15/01/11	Adelaide Lightning W v Geelong United W	62-89
08/01/11	Geelong United W v Adelaide Lightning W	108-73

Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
18/02/12	H	Dandenong W	51-82
10/02/12	H	Geelong United W	71-58
04/02/12	A	Bendigo W	97-87 OT
28/01/12	A	Townsville W	64-61
27/01/12	A	Logan W	63-52
21/01/12	A	Dandenong W	61-81
20/01/12	H	Bendigo W	70-54
13/01/12	A	Perth Lynx W	84-51
07/01/12	H	Townsville W	80-68
17/12/11	A	Perth Lynx W	78-57

Geelong United Wlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
18/02/12	H	Logan W	65-90
11/02/12	H	Perth Lynx W	81-56
10/02/12	A	Adelaide Lightning W	58-71
05/02/12	A	Logan W	83-80
03/02/12	A	Townsville W	73-64
28/01/12	H	Bendigo W	56-74
21/01/12	A	AIS W	103-58
13/01/12	A	Sydney W	80-71
06/01/12	H	Townsville W	92-75
18/12/11	A	Canberra C. Acad. W	78-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W

NBL W 2011-12

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWL	82%
Home	WWWWL	82%
Away	WLWWW	82%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	22	11	11
Win %	82%	82%	82%
Points / game	77.0	78.7	75.2
Allowed / game	67.5	67.6	67.5
Point differential	+9.4	+11.1	+7.7
Avg total	144.5	146.4	142.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	55%	64%	45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	80% (5)	50% (2)	100% (3)
Overtime %	5%	0%	9%

Geelong United W

NBL W 2011-12

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWL	68%
Home	WWLWL	64%
Away	WWWWL	73%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	22	11	11
Win %	68%	64%	73%
Points / game	81.8	83.1	80.5
Allowed / game	75.0	75.7	74.4
Point differential	+6.7	+7.4	+6.1
Avg total	156.8	158.8	154.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	36%	55%	18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	0% (1)	100% (2)
Overtime %	5%	9%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Adelaide Lightning W	22	18	4	82%	77.0	67.5	+9.4
2	Geelong United W	22	15	7	68%	81.8	75.0	+6.7
3	Dandenong W	22	14	8	64%	80.8	70.6	+10.2
4	Townsville W	23	14	9	61%	76.0	71.4	+4.5
5	Sydney W	23	13	10	57%	75.8	72.4	+3.4
6	Bendigo W	22	12	10	55%	74.8	67.3	+7.5
7	Logan W	22	12	10	55%	72.0	69.0	+2.9
8	Canberra C. Acad. W	22	9	13	41%	74.6	73.9	+0.7
9	Perth Lynx W	22	2	20	9%	63.5	83.4	-19.9
10	AIS W	22	2	20	9%	57.5	83.2	-25.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Adelaide Lightning W	19	11	20	21	71
Geelong United W	25	13	17	18	73

← all games of the day

Adelaide Lightning W vs Geelong United W Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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