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AEK Athens vs Alba Berlin Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 28 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 88-80
22-26 20-20 22-24 24-10
Position#1
Record6-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game72.0
vs
Position#11
Record6-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game91.9
Allowed / game81.9
EuropeChampions LeagueRound 2· Ano Liosia Olympic Hall
European cup2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Athens winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alba Berlin winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK AthensLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
Olympiacos
#1
L
93-100
93
100
-7
94avg 79
A07/12
Basket League
Levice
#13
W
99-88 OT
99
88
+11
96avg 79
H10/12
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#2
L
63-101
63
101
-38
49avg 79
H13/12
Basket League
Szolnoki Olaj
#24
L
69-80
69
80
-11
56avg 79
A16/12
Champions League
Mykonos
#7
W
77-76
77
76
+1
72avg 79
A20/12
Basket League
Aris
#5
W
82-76
82
76
+6
80avg 79
H27/12
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
94-86
94
86
+8
95avg 79
A03/01
Basket League
Mykonos
#7
W
90-65
90
65
+25
94avg 79
H11/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#11
W
79-71
79
71
+8
no box
A17/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
W
88-73
88
73
+15
84avg 79
H21/01
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-18
12-33
24-24
33-25
27-24
22-23
19-16
14-19
14-33
14-32
22-18
13-18
18-20
28-20
15-22
8-18
22-12
21-17
19-21
15-26
18-18
19-18
25-24
20-16
23-20
31-29
21-23
19-14
26-16
18-27
23-11
23-11
20-16
19-18
21-22
19-15
20-19
14-18
19-22
35-14
165.0Avg total
83.4Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.172.0155.1+11.186%
Season at home (4)93.275.5168.8+17.8100%
Season away (3)69.767.3137.0+2.367%
Last 10 (10)83.481.6165.0+1.870%
Last 5 (5)86.674.2160.8+12.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)74.587.0161.5-12.517%
vs Similar ◀ (3)74.777.7152.3-3.033%
vs Weaker (20)85.973.4159.3+12.590%
This opponent (Alba Berlin) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Alba BerlinLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBerlin
Date
Competition
Sabah Baku
#37
W
106-82
106
82
+24
105avg 81
H16/12
Champions League
Ulm
#6
L
66-67
66
67
-1
61avg 81
H20/12
BBL
Rostock
#8
W
80-66
80
66
+14
74avg 81
A26/12
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#9
W
80-47
80
47
+33
72avg 81
H29/12
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#17
W
104-73
104
73
+31
108avg 81
H31/12
BBL
Oldenburg
#10
L
73-76
73
76
-3
66avg 81
A04/01
BBL
Heidelberg
#18
W
87-62
87
62
+25
81avg 81
H11/01
BBL
Vechta
#7
W
95-83
95
83
+12
no box
A17/01
BBL
Tofas
#27
W
94-90
94
90
+4
94avg 81
A20/01
Champions League
Bamberg
#2
W
87-82 OT
87
82
+5
74avg 81
H25/01
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-24
17-22
33-12
31-24
22-21
24-16
8-16
12-14
19-16
23-8
22-16
16-26
11-16
30-6
18-14
21-11
18-16
24-15
32-24
30-18
20-11
16-25
14-28
23-12
18-16
27-10
17-24
25-12
24-14
28-28
28-19
15-22
12-20
22-23
26-25
34-22
20-21
18-16
21-16
17-23
160.0Avg total
87.2Scored
72.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)91.981.9173.7+10.086%
Season at home (3)92.080.3172.3+11.767%
Season away (4)91.883.0174.8+8.8100%
Last 10 (10)87.272.8160.0+14.480%
Last 5 (5)87.278.6165.8+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)67.061.0128.0+6.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (7)79.783.1162.9-3.429%
vs Weaker (21)89.078.7167.7+10.381%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -3.7-3.7Q2: +6.0+6.0Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +4.0+4.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -3.7-3.7Q2: +6.0+6.0Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +4.0+4.0
AEK AthensAlba Berlin
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olympiacos
#1
L
36-51
36
51
-15
A07/12
Basket League
Levice
#13
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H10/12
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#2
L
28-65
28
65
-37
H13/12
Basket League
Szolnoki Olaj
#24
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A16/12
Champions League
Mykonos
#7
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A20/12
Basket League
Aris
#5
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H27/12
Basket League
Promitheas
#9
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A03/01
Basket League
Mykonos
#7
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H11/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#11
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A17/01
Basket League
AS Karditsas
#32
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H21/01
Champions League
84.1Avg total
41.0Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.738.679.4+2.163%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.237.878.0+2.462%-
Last 30 away (14)41.439.680.9+1.864%-
Last 10 (10)41.043.184.1-2.170%-
Last 5 (5)41.639.881.4+1.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)34.247.081.2-12.80%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)39.036.775.7+2.367%-
vs Weaker (20)43.136.279.4+6.985%-
This opponent (Alba Berlin) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Alba BerlinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sabah Baku
#37
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H16/12
Champions League
Ulm
#6
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H20/12
BBL
Rostock
#8
W
42-24
42
24
+18
A26/12
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#9
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H29/12
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#17
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H31/12
BBL
Oldenburg
#10
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A04/01
BBL
Heidelberg
#18
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H11/01
BBL
Vechta
#7
W
52-42
52
42
+10
A17/01
BBL
Tofas
#27
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A20/01
Champions League
Bamberg
#2
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H25/01
BBL
76.2Avg total
41.8Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.939.281.1+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.538.179.6+3.462%-
Last 30 away (14)42.440.482.9+2.057%-
Last 10 (10)41.834.476.2+7.470%-
Last 5 (5)41.036.877.8+4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)35.038.073.0-3.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)40.941.982.7-1.057%-
vs Weaker (21)42.838.281.0+4.667%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 84.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.2 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.420.8
54.2%
52.4%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.38.3
37.2%
33.8%24.9
🏀 Free throws23.518.3
77.9%
74.1%18.3
They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Alba Berlintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alba Berlin: 84.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.2 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.619.1
52.2%
52.4%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.69.8
34.3%
33.8%29.4
🏀 Free throws22.517.3
76.9%
74.1%17.3
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Athens
WWWWWWLLWL
Alba Berlin
WWWWLWWWLW
#1
League position
#11
+3.6
Net rating
+13.5
111.8
Offensive rating
106.9
108.3
Defensive rating
93.4
54.8%
Effective FG%
51.8%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
47.0%
16.0%
Turnover %
17.1%
27.4%
Off. rebound %
35.1%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.35
37.2%
3-point %
34.3%
70.1%
Assist %
68.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence111.8 · 106.9Defence108.3 · 93.4Shooting54.8% · 51.8%3-point %37.2% · 34.3%Ball care16.0% · 17.1%Off. rebounds27.4% · 35.1%Free throws0.39 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ AEK Athens   ■ Alba Berlin
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
AEK Athens wins
0
Alba Berlin wins
No previous meetings.
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/01/26HAS Karditsas88-73
17/01/26AAS Karditsas79-71
11/01/26HMykonos90-65
03/01/26APromitheas94-86
27/12/25HAris82-76
20/12/25AMykonos77-76
16/12/25ASzolnoki Olaj69-80
13/12/25HPanathinaikos63-101
10/12/25HLevice99-88 OT
07/12/25AOlympiacos93-100
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/26HBamberg87-82 OT
20/01/26ATofas94-90
17/01/26AVechta95-83
11/01/26HHeidelberg87-62
04/01/26AOldenburg73-76
31/12/25HBasketball Braunschweig104-73
29/12/25HLudwigsburg80-47
26/12/25ARostock80-66
20/12/25HUlm66-67
16/12/25HSabah Baku106-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Athens
Champions League 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW86%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%100%67%
Points / game83.193.269.7
Allowed / game72.075.567.3
Point differential+11.1+17.8+2.3
Avg total155.1168.8137.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%100%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %14%25%0%
Alba Berlin
Champions League 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %86%67%100%
Points / game91.992.091.8
Allowed / game81.980.383.0
Point differential+10.0+11.7+8.8
Avg total173.7172.3174.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%67%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Unicaja770100%95.074.3+20.7
2 Joventut Badalona770100%91.175.7+15.4
3 Gran Canaria87188%82.070.8+11.2
4 AEK Athens76186%83.172.0+11.1
5 Alba Berlin76186%91.981.9+10.0
6 Chalon/Saone1311285%91.484.8+6.6
7 Galatasaray86275%88.281.1+7.1
8 Tenerife75271%89.079.1+9.9
9 Murcia32167%89.783.7+6.0
10 Bakken Bears32167%88.086.0+2.0
11 Antwerp Giants32167%72.775.3-2.7
12 Rytas85362%94.488.0+6.4
13 Le Mans106460%88.577.6+10.9
14 Levice127558%79.279.8-0.6
15 Wurzburg116555%81.477.0+4.4
16 Tofas116555%85.286.0-0.8
17 Reggiana21150%88.584.0+4.5
18 Den Bosch21150%78.575.0+3.5
19 Juventus21150%87.085.0+2.0
20 Trieste105550%82.782.7+0.0
21 BC Kalev/Cramo21150%81.082.5-1.5
22 PAOK21150%76.079.5-3.5
23 FC Porto21150%81.089.5-8.5
24 Mersin SK84450%80.088.6-8.6
25 Cholet94544%89.087.0+2.0
26 Szolnoki Olaj94544%76.476.4+0.0
27 Hapoel Holon94544%81.782.0-0.3
28 Trapani73443%75.179.1-4.0
29 AS Karditsas104640%78.685.7-7.1
30 Spartak Subotica83538%78.279.4-1.1
31 Heidelberg83538%79.582.1-2.6
32 Promitheas83538%80.186.5-6.4
33 Legia62433%78.077.8+0.2
34 Bnei Herzliya62433%84.890.5-5.7
35 Bursaspor93633%76.883.0-6.2
36 Nymburk103730%80.685.1-4.5
37 Sabah Baku61517%81.090.7-9.7
38 VEF Riga61517%68.580.0-11.5
39 Igokea61517%75.387.0-11.7
40 Benfica61517%71.592.2-20.7
41 Kutaisi1010%81.084.0-3.0
42 Szombathely1010%79.083.0-4.0
43 Basketball Braunschweig1010%74.081.0-7.0
44 CSM Oradea1010%71.079.0-8.0
45 Rilski Sportist1010%84.093.0-9.0
46 Oostende6060%81.092.7-11.7
47 Pelister1010%87.099.0-12.0
48 Studentski Centar1010%67.079.0-12.0
49 Trepca1010%68.080.0-12.0
50 Karhu Basket1010%89.0103.0-14.0
51 Lublin1010%84.0100.0-16.0
52 AEK Larnaca1010%69.090.0-21.0
53 Fribourg Olympic1010%80.0107.0-27.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 53 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AEK Athens2220222488
Alba Berlin2620241080
← all games of the day
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