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AIK Basket W vs Ostersund W Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 15:00
Projected 75-78
Projected total 152.2
Final 66-97
17-22 16-20 18-31 15-24
Position#9
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game65.5
Allowed / game79.8
AIK Basket W
Sweden
Vs
40%
60%
■ AIK 40%■ OSTE 60%
Pythia win probability
Ostersund W 🏆
Sweden
Position#6
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game75.8
Allowed / game82.5
SwedenBasketligan WRound 5· Vasalundshallen
Women2026-27
Meetings · AIK Basket W v Ostersund W
31 Oct 2026
AIK 66
OSTE97
29 Mar 2026
AIK 68
OSTE77
11 Oct 2025
AIK 73
OSTE86
01 Feb 2025
AIK 69
OSTE60
09 Mar 2024
AIK 56
OSTE81
03 Oct 2020
AIK 63
OSTE83
20 Oct 2019
AIK 70
OSTE73
24 Nov 2018
AIK 53
OSTE73
08 Apr 2017
AIK 56
OSTE54
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
AIK Basket W host Ostersund W in the Basketligan W. Pythia makes Ostersund W the favourite at 60% and projects 75-78, about 152 points in all (over 149.5: 56%). On the market's main spread (AIK Basket W +7.5) Pythia gives AIK Basket W 65% to cover. Overtime chance: 5%. AIK Basket W are 1-3 this season (65.5 scored, 79.8 allowed a game), form LLLWL; Ostersund W are 2-2 this season (75.8 scored, 82.5 allowed a game), form LWLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AIK Basket W winLost
40.0%fair 2.50
Best odds3.50
Implied27.5%
Edge+12.5pp
Ostersund W winWon
60.0%fair 1.67
Best odds1.36
Implied72.5%
Edge-12.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 09:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AIK Basket WSwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Lulea W
#1
L
61-80
61
80
-19
52avg 61
A20/02
Basketligan W
RIG Lulea W
#13
W
105-55
105
55
+50
102avg 61
A21/02
Basketligan W
Malbas Malmo W
#8
W
69-66
69
66
+3
58avg 61
H07/03
Basketligan W
Sodertalje W
#6
W
68-66
68
66
+2
66avg 61
H21/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#4
L
61-79
61
79
-18
43avg 61
A27/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#4
L
68-77
68
77
-9
55avg 61
H29/03
Basketligan W
Alvik W
#4
L
76-87
76
87
-11
56avg 61
A04/10
Basketligan W
Sodertalje W
#5
L
56-80
56
80
-24
43avg 61
A09/10
Basketligan W
Lund W
#11
W
71-63
71
63
+8
64avg 61
H19/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
L
59-89
59
89
-30
40avg 61
A24/10
Basketligan W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
17-18
12-25
16-24
30-14
33-15
25-18
17-8
9-20
20-14
20-15
20-17
28-20
13-21
16-10
11-15
21-18
15-21
11-24
14-16
13-15
10-17
20-20
25-25
14-23
25-19
22-19
15-26
12-16
10-21
18-22
16-21
19-17
11-23
26-12
15-11
17-23
19-18
13-26
10-22
143.6Avg total
69.4Scored
74.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)65.579.8145.2-14.225%
Season at home (1)71.063.0134.0+8.0100%
Season away (3)63.785.3149.0-21.70%
Last 10 (10)69.474.2143.6-4.840%
Last 5 (5)66.079.2145.2-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)69.782.3152.0-12.722%
vs Similar (9)75.975.9151.8+0.067%
vs Weaker (12)80.367.4147.8+12.975%
This opponent (Ostersund W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ostersund WSwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
AIK Basket W
#5
W
79-61
79
61
+18
80avg 75
H27/03
Basketligan W
AIK Basket W
#5
W
77-68
77
68
+9
72avg 75
A29/03
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
51-53
51
53
-2
51avg 75
A07/04
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
W
73-70
73
70
+3
68avg 75
H10/04
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
67-77
67
77
-10
62avg 75
A12/04
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
68-98
68
98
-30
58avg 75
H15/04
Basketligan W
Lund W
#11
W
74-65
74
65
+9
no box
H03/10
Basketligan W
Onsala W
#2
L
63-85
63
85
-22
52avg 75
H10/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
W
92-89
92
89
+3
77avg 75
A17/10
Basketligan W
Norrkoping W
#3
L
74-91
74
91
-17
62avg 75
H24/10
Basketligan W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
21-15
24-11
16-14
15-13
17-10
20-20
25-25
15-14
11-12
10-5
15-22
21-29
23-9
17-13
12-19
17-19
16-23
14-17
20-18
15-31
17-27
18-30
18-10
19-15
25-14
17-19
13-17
24-19
18-30
17-13
4-23
23-31
20-20
19-19
30-19
9-19
22-22
18-24
25-26
147.5Avg total
71.8Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)75.882.5158.2-6.850%
Season at home (3)70.380.3150.7-10.033%
Season away (1)92.089.0181.0+3.0100%
Last 10 (10)71.875.7147.5-3.950%
Last 5 (5)74.285.6159.8-11.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)69.283.5152.8-14.212%
vs Similar (10)79.778.8158.5+0.970%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)85.867.5153.3+18.392%
This opponent (AIK Basket W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
67.4%
Under 144.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
55.9%
@ 1.83+7.0pp
Under 149.5
44.1%
@ 1.83-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.67
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
43.8%
Under 154.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

AIK Basket W total 66.5Actual: AIK Basket W under 66.5
Over 66.5
78.5%
@ 1.36+14.1pp
Under 66.5
21.5%
@ 2.46-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.46
AIK Basket W total 70.5 · main lineActual: AIK Basket W under 70.5
Over 70.5
65.4%
@ 1.80+14.5pp
Under 70.5
34.6%
@ 1.91-14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.70
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.74
AIK Basket W total 74.5Actual: AIK Basket W under 74.5
Over 74.5
50.3%
@ 2.36+13.3pp
Under 74.5
49.7%
@ 1.39-13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
Under
1xBet
1.39
Ostersund W total 74.5Actual: Ostersund W over 74.5
Over 74.5
61.6%
@ 1.43+0.7pp
Under 74.5
38.4%
@ 2.23-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.23
Ostersund W total 78.5 · main lineActual: Ostersund W over 78.5
Over 78.5
46.1%
@ 1.88-2.1pp
Under 78.5
53.9%
@ 1.83+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.63
Ostersund W total 82.5Actual: Ostersund W over 82.5
Over 82.5
31.3%
@ 2.60-2.5pp
Under 82.5
68.7%
@ 1.33+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.33

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread AIK Basket W +4.5Actual: Ostersund W -4.5
AIK +4.5
54.5%
@ 2.16+13.5pp
OSTE -4.5
45.5%
@ 1.50-13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
AIK
1xBet
2.16
OSTE
1xBet
1.50
Spread AIK Basket W +7.5 · main lineActual: Ostersund W -7.5
AIK +7.5
65.5%
@ 1.84+15.4pp
OSTE -7.5
34.5%
@ 1.88-15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
AIK
SBO
1.84
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80
OSTE
BetVictor
1.88
SBO
1.86
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Spread AIK Basket W +10.5Actual: Ostersund W -10.5
AIK +10.5
74.9%
@ 1.43+12.8pp
OSTE -10.5
25.1%
@ 2.34-12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
AIK
1xBet
1.43
OSTE
1xBet
2.34

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
AIK Basket WOstersund W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AIK Basket WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lulea W
#1
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A20/02
Basketligan W
RIG Lulea W
#13
W
63-29
63
29
+34
A21/02
Basketligan W
Malbas Malmo W
#8
L
29-34
29
34
-5
H07/03
Basketligan W
Sodertalje W
#6
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H21/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#4
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A27/03
Basketligan W
Ostersund W
#4
L
23-32
23
32
-9
H29/03
Basketligan W
Alvik W
#4
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A04/10
Basketligan W
Sodertalje W
#5
L
22-37
22
37
-15
A09/10
Basketligan W
Lund W
#11
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H19/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A24/10
Basketligan W
71.8Avg total
35.2Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74
Last 30 (30)38.936.675.5+2.353%60%
Last 30 at home (14)37.136.073.1+1.157%43%
Last 30 away (16)40.537.177.6+3.450%75%
Last 10 (10)35.236.671.8-1.420%50%
Last 5 (5)30.038.468.4-8.40%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)36.339.976.2-3.644%67%
vs Similar (9)38.838.977.7-0.144%78%
vs Weaker (12)40.932.473.3+8.567%42%
This opponent (Ostersund W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ostersund WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AIK Basket W
#5
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H27/03
Basketligan W
AIK Basket W
#5
W
32-23
32
23
+9
A29/03
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A07/04
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H10/04
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A12/04
Basketligan W
Lulea W
#1
L
32-58
32
58
-26
H15/04
Basketligan W
Lund W
#11
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H03/10
Basketligan W
Onsala W
#2
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H10/10
Basketligan W
Uppsala W
#7
L
43-51
43
51
-8
A17/10
Basketligan W
Norrkoping W
#3
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H24/10
Basketligan W
75.9Avg total
36.6Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74
Last 30 (30)39.539.779.3-0.257%67%
Last 30 at home (15)41.240.081.2+1.267%73%
Last 30 away (15)37.939.577.3-1.647%60%
Last 10 (10)36.639.375.9-2.740%60%
Last 5 (5)38.445.684.0-7.220%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)34.844.178.9-9.412%75%
vs Similar (10)40.942.082.9-1.150%90%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)41.634.976.5+6.792%42%
This opponent (AIK Basket W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Ostersund W win
AIK win
no forecast
@ 2.90
OSTE win
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread AIK Basket W +4 · main lineActual: Ostersund W -4
AIK +4
no forecast
@ 1.86
OSTE -4
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 74 · main lineActual: Over 74
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
AIK Basket W 1st half total 35.5 · main lineActual: AIK Basket W under 35.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Ostersund W 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Ostersund W over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: AIK + total 75.5
AIK & over
no forecast
@ 5.25
AIK & under
no forecast
@ 4.90
1st half: Draw + total 75.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Ostersund W (regulation)
AIK
no forecast
@ 3.00
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
OSTE
no forecast
@ 1.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
AIK win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
OSTE win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: AIK leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: OSTE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
AIK Basket W over 68.572.3%1.51
1xBet
1.51		----+14.9ppLost
AIK Basket W over 67.575.5%1.43
1xBet
1.43		----+14.6ppLost
AIK Basket W over 66.578.5%1.36
1xBet
1.36		----+14.1ppLost
AIK Basket W over 65.581.2%1.31
1xBet
1.31		----+13.6ppWon
AIK Basket W +9.572.0%1.51
1xBet
1.51		----+13.4ppLost
AIK Basket W +10.574.9%1.43
1xBet
1.43		----+12.8ppLost
AIK Basket W +11.577.6%1.35
1xBet
1.35		----+12.0ppLost
AIK Basket W +12.580.1%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+11.1ppLost
Overtime: no94.7%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+3.2pp-
Ostersund W under 83.572.1%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+2.8ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AIK Basket Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AIK Basket W: 68.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 71.1 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.117.7
43.1%
46.8%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.46.5
29.0%
30.7%19.5
🏀 Free throws18.214.0
76.9%
71.1%14.0
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ostersund Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ostersund W: 72.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 71.1 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.517.4
46.4%
46.8%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.97.7
32.2%
30.7%23.1
🏀 Free throws21.414.7
68.7%
71.1%14.7
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AIK Basket W
LWLLLLWWWL
Ostersund W
LWLWLLWLWW
#9
League position
#6
-2.9
Net rating
-4.7
77.6
Offensive rating
78.3
80.5
Defensive rating
83.0
43.2%
Effective FG%
47.1%
45.5%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
18.7%
Turnover %
22.6%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.35
29.0%
3-point %
32.2%
63.6%
Assist %
68.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence77.6 · 78.3Defence80.5 · 83.0Shooting43.2% · 47.1%3-point %29.0% · 32.2%Ball care18.7% · 22.6%Free throws0.29 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ AIK Basket W   ■ Ostersund W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
AIK Basket W wins
7
Ostersund W wins
DateGameScore
29/03/26AIK Basket W v Ostersund W68-77
27/03/26Ostersund W v AIK Basket W79-61
07/02/26Ostersund W v AIK Basket W85-87
11/10/25AIK Basket W v Ostersund W73-86
01/02/25AIK Basket W v Ostersund W69-60
16/11/24Ostersund W v AIK Basket W76-77
09/03/24AIK Basket W v Ostersund W56-81
16/12/23Ostersund W v AIK Basket W81-59
03/10/20AIK Basket W v Ostersund W63-83
20/10/19AIK Basket W v Ostersund W70-73
AIK Basket Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26AUppsala W59-89
19/10/26HLund W71-63
09/10/26ASodertalje W56-80
04/10/26AAlvik W76-87
29/03/26HOstersund W68-77
27/03/26AOstersund W61-79
21/03/26HSodertalje W68-66
07/03/26HMalbas Malmo W69-66
21/02/26ARIG Lulea W105-55
20/02/26ALulea W61-80
Ostersund Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HNorrkoping W74-91
17/10/26AUppsala W92-89
10/10/26HOnsala W63-85
03/10/26HLund W74-65
15/04/26HLulea W68-98
12/04/26ALulea W67-77
10/04/26HLulea W73-70
07/04/26ALulea W51-53
29/03/26AAIK Basket W77-68
27/03/26HAIK Basket W79-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AIK Basket W
Basketligan W 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%100%0%
Points / game65.571.063.7
Allowed / game79.863.085.3
Point differential-14.2+8.0-21.7
Avg total145.2134.0149.0
Over 149.525%0%33%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ostersund W
Basketligan W 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWLL33%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%33%100%
Points / game75.870.392.0
Allowed / game82.580.389.0
Point differential-6.8-10.0+3.0
Avg total158.2150.7181.0
Over 149.550%33%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Onsala W440100%92.260.2+32.0
2 Alvik W440100%83.065.8+17.2
3 Norrkoping W440100%80.266.0+14.2
4 Lulea W54180%99.256.2+43.0
5 Sodertalje W43175%72.068.5+3.5
6 Uppsala W42250%80.072.0+8.0
7 Ostersund W42250%75.882.5-6.8
8 Visby W41325%74.083.0-9.0
9 AIK Basket W41325%65.579.8-14.2
10 Lund W4040%59.875.2-15.5
11 Hogsbo W5050%58.090.0-32.0
12 Brahe W4040%57.0100.2-43.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AIK Basket W1716181566
Ostersund W2220312497
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