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Alabama vs Baylor Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 25 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Projected 88-78
Projected total 165.6
Scheduled
Position#48
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game97.0
Allowed / game76.0
Vs
81%
19%
■ ALAB 81%■ BAYL 19%
Pythia win probability
Position#6
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game95.3
Allowed / game59.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Alabama v Baylor
24 Nov 2026
ALAB v BAYL
upcoming
29 Jan 2022
ALAB87
BAYL78
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Alabama host Baylor in the NCAA. Pythia makes Alabama the favourite at 81% and projects 88-78, about 166 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Alabama are 4-0 this season (97.0 scored, 76.0 allowed a game), form LWWWW; Baylor are 3-0 this season (95.3 scored, 59.7 allowed a game), form WLWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alabama win
80.9%fair 1.24
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Baylor win
19.1%fair 5.23
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 07:37 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#68
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
96-84
96
84
+12
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
90-70
90
70
+20
H20/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
90-65
90
65
+25
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
77-90
77
90
-13
A27/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#225
W
96-74
96
74
+22
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#228
W
101-86
101
86
+15
H07/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
109-68
109
68
+41
H10/11
NCAA
Seton Hall
#130
W
82-76
82
76
+6
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-50
45-48
50-31
46-53
41-47
38-33
37-35
53-35
49-25
41-40
49-47
28-43
40-29
56-45
51-34
50-52
56-29
53-39
38-28
44-48
169.9Avg total
90.8Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)97.076.0173.0+21.0100%
Season at home (4)97.076.0173.0+21.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)90.879.1169.9+11.770%
Last 5 (5)93.078.8171.8+14.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)76.395.3171.7-19.00%
vs Similar (14)91.284.9176.1+6.471%
vs Weaker (13)93.777.9171.6+15.892%
This opponent (Baylor) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BaylorUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
87-86
87
86
+1
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
64-77
64
77
-13
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
101-75
101
75
+26
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
87-65
87
65
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#472
W
109-53
109
53
+56
H06/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-41
40-49
32-40
41-28
41-34
39-53
56-42
31-44
35-35
29-42
53-33
48-42
35-44
44-39
50-32
37-33
58-13
51-40
41-30
49-31
158.9Avg total
84.4Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.359.7155.0+35.7100%
Season at home (3)95.359.7155.0+35.7100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.474.5158.9+9.960%
Last 5 (5)93.267.4160.6+25.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)66.577.5144.0-11.00%
vs Similar (11)80.778.0158.7+2.745%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)93.271.1164.2+22.177%
This opponent (Alabama) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141
Over 141
93.7%
Under 141
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
88.8%
Under 146
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
81.6%
Under 151
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Alabama total 75.5
Over 75.5
88.8%
Under 75.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alabama total 79.5
Over 79.5
79.5%
Under 79.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alabama total 83.5
Over 83.5
66.5%
Under 83.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baylor total 62.5
Over 62.5
93.4%
Under 62.5
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baylor total 66.5
Over 66.5
86.6%
Under 66.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baylor total 70.5
Over 70.5
76.1%
Under 70.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Alabama -3
ALAB -3
74.8%
BAYL +3
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
No market prices yet.
BAYL
No market prices yet.
Spread Alabama 0
ALAB 0
80.9%
BAYL 0
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
No market prices yet.
BAYL
No market prices yet.
Spread Alabama +3
ALAB +3
86.5%
BAYL -3
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
No market prices yet.
BAYL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.9+9.91st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: +0.8+0.8
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.9+9.91st half: +9.1+9.12nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: +0.8+0.8
AlabamaBaylor
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#68
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H13/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
49-25
49
25
+24
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A27/03
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#225
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#228
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Oakland
#344
W
56-29
56
29
+27
H10/11
NCAA
Seton Hall
#130
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H14/11
NCAA
80.9Avg total
45.4Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.837.481.3+6.467%-
Last 30 at home (20)46.835.482.2+11.480%-
Last 30 away (10)38.041.579.5-3.540%-
Last 10 (10)45.435.580.9+9.980%-
Last 5 (5)46.833.480.2+13.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)42.044.086.0-2.067%-
vs Similar (14)43.939.683.5+4.450%-
vs Weaker (13)44.233.677.8+10.585%-
This opponent (Baylor) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BaylorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
56-42
56
42
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#472
W
58-13
58
13
+45
H06/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H11/11
NCAA
77.9Avg total
43.5Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.135.076.0+6.150%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.433.476.8+10.161%-
Last 30 away (12)37.537.374.8+0.233%-
Last 10 (10)43.534.477.9+9.160%-
Last 5 (5)47.430.477.8+17.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.233.065.2-0.817%-
vs Similar (11)38.537.475.9+1.245%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)47.333.881.2+13.569%-
This opponent (Alabama) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Alabama wins
0
Baylor wins
DateGameScore
29/01/22Alabama v Baylor87-78
Alabamalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSeton Hall82-76
10/11/26HOakland109-68
07/11/26HArkansas State101-86
04/11/26HSam Houston St.96-74
27/03/26AMichigan77-90
23/03/26HTexas Tech90-65
20/03/26HHofstra90-70
13/03/26HOle Miss79-80
08/03/26HAuburn96-84
03/03/26AGeorgia88-98
Baylorlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HYale90-61
06/11/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff109-53
03/11/26HNorthwestern St.87-65
10/03/26AArizona State79-83
07/03/26HUtah Utes101-75
05/03/26AHouston64-77
01/03/26AUCF Knights87-86
25/02/26HArizona80-87
21/02/26HArizona State73-68
18/02/26AKansas State74-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alabama
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game97.097.0-
Allowed / game76.076.0-
Point differential+21.0+21.0-
Avg total173.0173.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%75%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Baylor
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.395.3-
Allowed / game59.759.7-
Point differential+35.7+35.7-
Avg total155.0155.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
3 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
4 LSU440100%90.859.5+31.2
5 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
6 South Carolina440100%78.856.5+22.2
7 Alabama440100%97.076.0+21.0
8 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
9 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
10 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
11 Mississippi St.43175%87.267.5+19.8
12 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
13 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
14 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
15 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
16 Auburn32167%78.764.0+14.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Baylor330100%95.359.7+35.7
2 West Virginia330100%85.753.3+32.3
3 Kansas330100%91.059.7+31.3
4 TCU440100%95.067.2+27.8
5 Texas Tech440100%81.053.8+27.2
6 Arizona State440100%85.563.2+22.2
7 Brigham Young440100%96.575.8+20.8
8 Utah Utes330100%72.761.3+11.3
9 UCF Knights440100%85.877.2+8.5
10 Cincinnati43175%79.063.0+16.0
11 Arizona43175%87.274.0+13.2
12 Houston32167%84.762.3+22.3
13 Oklahoma State32167%92.772.0+20.7
14 Iowa State32167%81.061.3+19.7
15 Kansas State32167%83.376.0+7.3
16 Colorado42250%74.069.5+4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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