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American University vs Harvard Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 70-68
Projected total 138.7
Scheduled
Position#290
Record1-2
FormLLLLW
Points / game64.0
Allowed / game75.0
American University
USA
Vs
57%
43%
■ AMER 57%■ HARV 43%
Pythia win probability
Harvard
USA
Position#218
Record2-2
FormLWWLL
Points / game65.8
Allowed / game62.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · American University v Harvard
15 Nov 2026
AMER v HARV
upcoming
10 Nov 2024
AMER67
HARV55
Sections
Game preview & prediction

American University will host Harvard on 15 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model expects to be high-scoring, projecting a total of 138.7 points driven by both teams' recent offensive output. American University enters the game with a 1-2 record, averaging 64.0 points and conceding 75.0, while Harvard is 2-2, averaging 65.8 points and allowing 62.8, placing the two teams 290th and 211th in the league respectively. American University's last five games include a narrow 66-64 win over Drexel and losses to Clemson and Cincinnati, whereas Harvard's recent road slate saw defeats to George Washington and Northeastern but a decisive 63-47 victory over Chicago Maroons. The teams have split their two previous meetings, the most recent being a 67-55 win for American University in 2024. Pythia gives American University a 57% chance to win against Harvard's 43%, naming the home side as favourite, and projects a 70-68 scoreline. The home team's line of 1.0 gives a 59% probability of covering, while the over on the 130.5 total carries a 68% chance, and a 5% likelihood of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Harvard can sustain its recent offensive bursts against American University's defensive struggles.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

American University win
57.1%fair 1.75
Best odds1.88
Implied50.0%
Edge+7.1pp
Harvard win
42.9%fair 2.33
Best odds1.95
Implied50.0%
Edge-7.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

American UniversityUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
L
82-90
82
90
-8
A12/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
75-57
75
57
+18
A19/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
75-61
75
61
+14
A22/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H26/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
65-68
65
68
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
73-75
73
75
-2
A06/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#108
L
53-79
53
79
-26
A03/11
NCAA
Clemson
#131
L
73-82
73
82
-9
A07/11
NCAA
Drexel
#241
W
66-64
66
64
+2
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-47
48-43
36-27
39-36
36-30
39-27
34-31
41-30
30-33
43-45
23-38
42-30
36-40
37-35
33-35
20-44
35-39
38-43
31-30
35-34
142.7Avg total
71.0Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)64.075.0139.0-11.033%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)64.075.0139.0-11.033%
Last 10 (10)71.071.7142.7-0.740%
Last 5 (5)66.073.6139.6-7.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)66.379.7146.0-13.429%
vs Similar (8)69.566.6136.1+2.950%
vs Weaker (14)73.968.6142.6+5.357%
This opponent (Harvard) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
HarvardUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Yale
#22
L
75-76 OT
75
76
-1
H14/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
73-54
73
54
+19
A21/02
NCAA
Princeton
#337
W
58-56
58
56
+2
A28/02
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
81-71
81
71
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
60-62 OT
60
62
-2
H14/03
NCAA
MIT
#409
W
73-45
73
45
+28
H03/11
NCAA
Chicago Maroons
#367
W
63-47
63
47
+16
A08/11
NCAA
Northeastern
#238
L
70-74 OT
70
74
-4
A11/11
NCAA
George Washington
#23
L
57-85
57
85
-28
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-30
32-36
25-24
48-30
21-33
37-23
31-21
30-43
38-33
43-38
26-30
27-23
39-22
34-23
35-20
28-27
19-29
41-31
33-40
24-45
130.5Avg total
67.1Scored
63.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)65.862.8128.5+3.050%
Season at home (1)73.045.0118.0+28.0100%
Season away (3)63.368.7132.0-5.333%
Last 10 (10)67.163.4130.5+3.750%
Last 5 (5)64.662.6127.2+2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)64.577.8142.2-13.225%
vs Similar (14)69.365.8135.1+3.557%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)70.665.9136.5+4.760%
This opponent (American University) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 125.5
Over 125.5
78.5%
@ 1.44+13.0pp
Under 125.5
21.5%
@ 2.75-13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 130.5 · main line
Over 130.5
68.5%
@ 1.90+17.3pp
Under 130.5
31.5%
@ 2.02-17.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 135.5
Over 135.5
57.0%
@ 2.62+13.1pp
Under 135.5
43.0%
@ 1.85-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.22
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.44

📊 3. Team Totals

American University total 62.5
Over 62.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under 62.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
American University total 67 · main line
Over 67
63.2%
@ 1.85+12.9pp
Under 67
36.8%
@ 1.87-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
American University total 71
Over 71
47.2%
Under 71
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harvard total 61.5
Over 61.5
74.5%
@ 1.36+8.0pp
Under 61.5
25.5%
@ 2.70-8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.70
Harvard total 65.5 · main line
Over 65.5
60.6%
@ 1.86+10.6pp
Under 65.5
39.4%
@ 1.93-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Harvard total 69.5
Over 69.5
45.2%
@ 2.42+7.9pp
Under 69.5
54.8%
@ 1.44-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread American University -4
AMER -4
44.3%
@ 2.35+4.7pp
HARV +4
55.7%
@ 1.54-4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
AMER
Bet365
2.35
HARV
Bet365
1.54
Spread American University -1 · main line
AMER -1
55.8%
@ 1.86+5.3pp
HARV +1
44.2%
@ 1.90-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
AMER
Bet365
1.86
HARV
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread American University +2
AMER +2
62.5%
@ 1.71+7.3pp
HARV -2
37.5%
@ 2.20-7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
AMER
1xBet
1.71
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.62
HARV
Bet365
2.20
Marathon Be
2.07
1xBet
2.02

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -2.2-2.21st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +1.5+1.52nd half: +2.5+2.5
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -2.2-2.21st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +1.5+1.52nd half: +2.5+2.5
American UniversityHarvard
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
American UniversityLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A12/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A19/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A22/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H26/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H28/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A06/03
NCAA
Cincinnati
#108
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A03/11
NCAA
Clemson
#131
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A07/11
NCAA
Drexel
#241
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A12/11
NCAA
67.8Avg total
32.8Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 63.5
Last 30 (30)33.932.766.5+1.253%63%
Last 30 at home (15)33.829.763.5+4.160%47%
Last 30 away (15)33.935.769.6-1.747%80%
Last 10 (10)32.835.067.8-2.240%60%
Last 5 (5)31.636.468.0-4.820%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.436.168.6-3.729%71%
vs Similar (8)31.232.964.1-1.638%62%
vs Weaker (14)34.631.165.8+3.571%57%
This opponent (Harvard) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
HarvardLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Yale
#22
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H14/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
W
25-24
25
24
+1
A21/02
NCAA
Princeton
#337
L
21-33
21
33
-12
A28/02
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
31-21
31
21
+10
A28/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
L
26-30
26
30
-4
H14/03
NCAA
MIT
#409
W
39-22
39
22
+17
H03/11
NCAA
Chicago Maroons
#367
W
35-20
35
20
+15
A08/11
NCAA
Northeastern
#238
L
19-29
19
29
-10
A11/11
NCAA
George Washington
#23
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/11
NCAA
58.3Avg total
30.1Scored
28.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 63.5
Last 30 (30)31.930.662.5+1.363%50%
Last 30 at home (11)34.530.164.5+4.473%55%
Last 30 away (19)30.530.961.4-0.458%47%
Last 10 (10)30.128.258.3+1.960%30%
Last 5 (5)30.428.258.6+2.240%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.234.266.5-2.050%75%
vs Similar (14)31.629.461.0+2.371%43%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)31.232.864.0-1.650%60%
This opponent (American University) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
AMER win
no forecast
@ 1.88
HARV win
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread American University 0 · main line
AMER 0
no forecast
@ 1.85
HARV 0
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 63.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
American University 1st half total 31.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Harvard 1st half total 32.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 65
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 61.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread American University -1.5
AMER -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
HARV +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread American University +1.5
AMER +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
HARV -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.52
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Over/Under 59.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread American University -2.5
AMER -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
HARV +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread American University +2.5
AMER +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
HARV -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Spread American University -3.5
AMER -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
HARV +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread American University +3.5
AMER +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
HARV -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
AMER
no forecast
@ 1.95
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
HARV
no forecast
@ 1.98

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
AMER win + total 132.5
🔒 Pro
HARV win + total 132.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: AMER leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Over 13070.0%1.77
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.75		---+18.0pp
Over 12972.1%1.69
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.66		---+17.6pp
Harvard over 62.571.3%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+8.3pp
Harvard over 61.574.5%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+8.0pp
American University +8.581.7%1.24
Betano
1.24		----+7.3pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 38 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
American University wins
1
Harvard wins
DateGameScore
10/11/24American University v Harvard67-55
30/11/23Harvard v American University80-75
American Universitylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ADrexel66-64
07/11/26AClemson73-82
03/11/26ACincinnati53-79
06/03/26ABoston University73-75
28/02/26HBoston University65-68
26/02/26HLehigh73-78
22/02/26ALafayette75-61
19/02/26ABucknell75-57
14/02/26HArmy75-63
12/02/26ALehigh82-90
Harvardlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AGeorge Washington57-85
11/11/26ANortheastern70-74 OT
08/11/26AChicago Maroons63-47
03/11/26HMIT73-45
14/03/26HPenn60-62 OT
07/03/26HColumbia81-71
28/02/26APenn61-64
28/02/26APrinceton58-56
21/02/26ACornell73-54
14/02/26HYale75-76 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

American University
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
Home--
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %33%-33%
Points / game64.0-64.0
Allowed / game75.0-75.0
Point differential-11.0--11.0
Avg total139.0-139.0
Over 130.567%-67%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Harvard
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLL50%
HomeW100%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %50%100%33%
Points / game65.873.063.3
Allowed / game62.845.068.7
Point differential+3.0+28.0-5.3
Avg total128.5118.0132.0
Over 130.550%0%67%
Win by 10+50%100%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %25%0%33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Navy54180%69.265.8+3.4
2 Boston University43175%80.074.5+5.5
3 Army42250%75.566.2+9.2
4 Lafayette63350%76.267.2+9.0
5 Lehigh42250%64.570.2-5.8
6 American University31233%64.075.0-11.0
7 Loyola Maryland51420%68.473.0-4.6
8 Colgate3030%69.785.7-16.0
9 Bucknell4040%62.287.5-25.2
10 Holy Cross3030%64.092.7-28.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ivy League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Columbia43175%85.864.0+21.8
2 Dartmouth43175%83.066.5+16.5
3 Princeton43175%68.861.2+7.5
4 Harvard42250%65.862.8+3.0
5 Cornell42250%78.275.8+2.5
6 Penn41325%75.285.2-10.0
7 Yale41325%70.280.8-10.5
8 Brown51420%68.470.2-1.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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