American University will host Harvard on 15 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model expects to be high-scoring, projecting a total of 138.7 points driven by both teams' recent offensive output. American University enters the game with a 1-2 record, averaging 64.0 points and conceding 75.0, while Harvard is 2-2, averaging 65.8 points and allowing 62.8, placing the two teams 290th and 211th in the league respectively. American University's last five games include a narrow 66-64 win over Drexel and losses to Clemson and Cincinnati, whereas Harvard's recent road slate saw defeats to George Washington and Northeastern but a decisive 63-47 victory over Chicago Maroons. The teams have split their two previous meetings, the most recent being a 67-55 win for American University in 2024. Pythia gives American University a 57% chance to win against Harvard's 43%, naming the home side as favourite, and projects a 70-68 scoreline. The home team's line of 1.0 gives a 59% probability of covering, while the over on the 130.5 total carries a 68% chance, and a 5% likelihood of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Harvard can sustain its recent offensive bursts against American University's defensive struggles.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
American University winWon
57.1%fair 1.75
Best odds1.90
Implied50.9%
Edge+6.2pp
Harvard winLost
42.9%fair 2.33
Best odds2.00
Implied49.1%
Edge-6.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (American University) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 130.5Actual: Over 130.5
Over 130.5
68.5%
@ 1.96+19.9pp
Under 130.5
31.5%
@ 1.90-19.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Over/Under 135.5 · main lineActual: Under 135.5
Over 135.5
57.0%
@ 2.62+15.7pp
Under 135.5
43.0%
@ 1.85-15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.55
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Over/Under 140.5Actual: Under 140.5
Over 140.5
44.9%
@ 3.90+17.1pp
Under 140.5
55.1%
@ 1.35-17.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.90
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.22
📊 3. Team Totals
American University total 62.5Actual: American University over 62.5
Over 62.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under 62.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.27
American University total 67 · main lineActual: American University over 67
Over 67
63.2%
@ 1.85+12.9pp
Under 67
36.8%
@ 1.87-12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
American University total 71Actual: American University under 71
Over 71
47.2%
Under 71
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harvard total 62Actual: Harvard over 62
Over 62
73.6%
Under 62
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Harvard total 66 · main lineActual: Harvard under 66
Over 66
59.0%
@ 1.85+9.0pp
Under 66
41.0%
@ 1.85-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Harvard total 70Actual: Harvard under 70
Over 70
43.0%
Under 70
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread American University -4Actual: American University -4
AMER -4
44.3%
@ 2.35+4.7pp
HARV +4
55.7%
@ 1.54-4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
AMER
Bet365
2.35
HARV
Bet365
1.54
Spread American University -1 · main lineActual: American University -1
AMER -1
55.8%
@ 1.92+5.8pp
HARV +1
44.2%
@ 1.92-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
AMER
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
HARV
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread American University +2Actual: American University +2
AMER +2
62.5%
@ 1.71+6.0pp
HARV -2
37.5%
@ 2.20-6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
AMER
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.68
HARV
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathon Be
2.07
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.02
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
American UniversityHarvard
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (American University) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
AMER win
no forecast
@ 1.90
HARV win
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread American University +1.5 · main line
AMER +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
HARV -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
2nd half Over/Under 68.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
AMER
no forecast
@ 1.95
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
HARV
no forecast
@ 1.98
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 130
70.0%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.84
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+20.3pp
Won
Over 129
72.1%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Over 128
74.2%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
70.7%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
Bet365
1.74
+19.5pp
Won
Over 128.5
72.7%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
+19.2pp
Won
Over 127.5
74.7%
1.63
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Over 127
76.2%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
76.6%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Harvard over 62.5
71.3%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
+15.6pp
Won
Over 125.5
78.5%
1.47
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Over 124.5
80.2%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Over 126
78.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Over 125
79.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Over 123.5
81.9%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Over 124
81.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Over 123
83.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Harvard over 61.5
74.5%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Over 122.5
83.5%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Harvard over 59.5
80.4%
1.31
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Harvard over 60.5
77.5%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 120.5
86.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
American University +5
72.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
American University +6
75.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
American University +9.5
83.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
American University +8.5
81.7%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
American University +6.5
76.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
American University +5.5
73.6%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Harvard over 58.5
83.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
American University +7.5
79.2%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
American University +4.5
70.4%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
American University +19.5
96.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Harvard over 56.5
87.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
American University +14.5
92.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
American University +24.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.0pp
-
Harvard over 52.5
93.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Harvard over 54.5
91.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Harvard over 55.5
89.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Harvard +20.5
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Harvard +15.5
87.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Harvard +9.5
74.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Harvard +10.5
77.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Harvard +9
73.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Harvard +8.5
71.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Harvard +8
70.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Harvard under 80.5
88.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
American University under 82.5
88.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Harvard under 78.5
83.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
American University under 80.5
84.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Under 155.5
84.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Harvard under 76.5
78.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Harvard under 74.5
72.7%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Harvard under 75.5
75.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
American University under 78.5
78.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Under 150.5
76.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
American University under 76.5
72.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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