Arizona State faces Louisiana Monroe in an NCAA game on 13 November 2026, with the model rating Arizona State as the clear favourite thanks to a perfect 3-0 record, an average of 83.3 points scored and 63.7 allowed per game, and a 98% win probability. Arizona State has won all three of its games, scoring 91 points in the projected score, while Louisiana Monroe has struggled to a 1-3 record, averaging 84.0 points scored and 86.5 allowed, and a 2% chance of victory. Arizona State's home form is flawless, with a 3-0 record and a 4-1 last-five, highlighted by a 90-63 win over Northern Colorado and a 75-65 victory over East Tennessee St, whereas Louisiana Monroe's road record is 0-2, with recent losses to TCU and Texas A&M. The teams have not met this season, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 91-65 outcome, a total of 156.6 points, and a 62% probability that the over 151.5 will be hit, with no chance of overtime. The game ends with Arizona State's dominant performance reflected in the projected score.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arizona State winWon
98.3%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied93.5%
Edge+4.8pp
Louisiana Monroe winLost
1.7%fair 57.69
Best odds100.00
Implied6.5%
Edge-4.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Arizona State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
75.5%
@ 1.50+12.6pp
Under 145.5
24.5%
@ 2.62-12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 150.5 · main lineActual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
64.7%
@ 1.95+14.4pp
Under 150.5
35.3%
@ 1.92-14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
52.6%
@ 2.55+16.1pp
Under 155.5
47.4%
@ 1.47-16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.52
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Arizona State total 88Actual: Arizona State over 88
Over 88
63.0%
Under 88
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arizona State total 92 · main linePush
Over 92
46.4%
@ 1.85-3.6pp
Under 92
53.6%
@ 1.85+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Arizona State total 96Actual: Arizona State under 96
Over 96
30.4%
Under 96
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisiana Monroe total 56Actual: Louisiana Monroe over 56
Over 56
83.6%
Under 56
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisiana Monroe total 60 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe over 60
Over 60
71.4%
@ 1.88+21.8pp
Under 60
28.6%
@ 1.85-21.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Louisiana Monroe total 64Actual: Louisiana Monroe under 64
Over 64
55.8%
Under 64
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Arizona State -35.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe +35.5
ARIZ -35.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
LOUI +35.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
ARIZ
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
LOUI
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
Spread Arizona State -32.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe +32.5
ARIZ -32.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
LOUI +32.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
ARIZ
Marathon Be
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.88
LOUI
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Spread Arizona State -29.5Actual: Arizona State -29.5
ARIZ -29.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
LOUI +29.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
Best 5 market prices
ARIZ
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
LOUI
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Arizona StateLouisiana Monroe
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arizona StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baylor
#200
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A21/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A25/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H28/02
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
40-20
40
20
+20
H04/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H10/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
16-45
16
45
-29
A11/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#283
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H03/11
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#196
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H07/11
NCAA
Hofstra
#209
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H11/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
37.1Scored
31.5Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73.5
Last 30 (30)
37.4
36.6
74.0
+0.8
60%
53%
Last 30 at home (18)
39.6
34.1
73.7
+5.6
72%
50%
Last 30 away (12)
34.0
40.4
74.4
-6.4
42%
58%
Last 10 (10)
37.1
31.5
68.6
+5.6
80%
30%
Last 5 (5)
37.2
33.8
71.0
+3.4
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)
36.2
38.0
74.2
-1.8
59%
59%
vs Similar (10)
38.0
36.3
74.3
+1.7
50%
50%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)
42.0
29.7
71.7
+12.3
100%
33%
This opponent (Louisiana Monroe) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Arizona State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Arizona State win
ARIZ win
no forecast
@ 1.04
LOUI win
no forecast
@ 11.25
2nd half Spread Arizona State -15.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe +15.5
ARIZ -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
LOUI +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Arizona State (regulation)
ARIZ
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 30.00
LOUI
no forecast
@ 10.75
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Louisiana Monroe over 59.5
72.4%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.86
+25.5pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 58.5
75.6%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 59
74.8%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 57.5
78.7%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 55.5
84.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 60
71.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 56.5
81.5%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 53.5
88.4%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 54.5
86.4%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Over 147.5
71.4%
1.61
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Over 146.5
73.5%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Over 148
70.7%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Over 145.5
75.5%
1.47
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Over 147
72.9%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 52.5
90.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Over 144.5
77.4%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Over 143.5
79.2%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Over 146
75.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Over 144
78.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Over 145
76.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Over 142.5
81.0%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Over 143
80.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
84.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Arizona State under 97.5
74.0%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Arizona State (regulation)
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Over 130.5
94.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 135.5
90.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Arizona State win
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Over 125.5
97.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Arizona State over 74.5
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Arizona State over 72.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Arizona State over 73.5
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Arizona State over 71.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Arizona State over 76.5
93.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Arizona State under 96.5
70.6%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Arizona State over 75.5
94.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Arizona State under 98.5
77.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Arizona State over 78.5
89.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Arizona State over 77.5
91.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Arizona State over 80.5
85.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Arizona State over 82.5
80.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Arizona State over 79.5
88.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Arizona State over 81.5
83.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Arizona State over 83.5
78.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Arizona State over 84.5
74.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 175.5
88.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
80.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 74.5
82.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Under 165.5
71.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.9pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 72.5
76.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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