TCU hosts Louisiana Monroe on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model rating TCU as the clear favourite at 99% versus 1% for Monroe, a reflection of TCU's unbeaten 2-0 season record, 102.0 points per game scored and only 56.5 points allowed, placing them 8th in the league, while Monroe sits 280th with a 1-2 record, 81.3 points per game and 82.0 points allowed. TCU's two home games have been dominant, both wins with the same 102.0 points per game and 56.5 allowed, and they have won 3 of their last 5 games, including a 106-54 victory over Southern Univ. and a 98-59 win over Lindenwood, though they suffered a 58-81 loss to Duke away. Monroe's road performance is weaker, 0-1 with 67.0 points per game and 108.0 allowed, and they have won only 1 of their last 5 games, losing to Texas A&M 67-108 and Central Michigan 78-83, but they beat Champion Christian 99-55 at home. Their only prior meeting was a 95-60 TCU win in 2022. The model projects a 95-63 score, 157.8 total points, with a 46% chance of the over on the 159.5 line, and no overtime probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
TCU winWon
99.6%fair 1.00
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisiana Monroe winLost
0.4%fair 242.22
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (TCU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155Actual: Over 155
Over 155
55.8%
@ 1.44-8.8pp
Under 155
44.2%
@ 2.62+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 160 · main lineActual: Over 160
Over 160
43.0%
@ 1.91-7.0pp
Under 160
57.0%
@ 1.93+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Under
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.84
Over/Under 165Actual: Over 165
Over 165
31.0%
@ 2.50-6.5pp
Under 165
69.0%
@ 1.50+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
TCU total 93Actual: TCU over 93
Over 93
60.9%
Under 93
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TCU total 97 · main lineActual: TCU over 97
Over 97
44.3%
@ 1.87-5.4pp
Under 97
55.7%
@ 1.85+5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
TCU total 100.5Actual: TCU under 100.5
Over 100.5
31.2%
@ 2.50-8.7pp
Under 100.5
68.8%
@ 1.57+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
Louisiana Monroe total 58.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe over 58.5
Over 58.5
62.3%
@ 1.39-6.0pp
Under 58.5
37.7%
@ 3.25+6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betano
2.60
Louisiana Monroe total 62.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe over 62.5
Over 62.5
46.4%
@ 1.89-3.6pp
Under 62.5
53.6%
@ 1.91+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Louisiana Monroe total 66.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe over 66.5
Over 66.5
31.1%
@ 2.65-4.4pp
Under 66.5
68.9%
@ 1.44+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread TCU -36.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe +36.5
TCU -36.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
LOUI +36.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
TCU
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.00
LOUI
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.58
Spread TCU -33.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe +33.5
TCU -33.5
51.9%
@ 1.90+1.2pp
LOUI +33.5
48.1%
@ 1.95-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
TCU
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
LOUI
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Spread TCU -30.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe +30.5
TCU -30.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
LOUI +30.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
TCU
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.47
LOUI
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
TCULouisiana Monroe
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (TCU) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Louisiana Monroe win
TCU win
no forecast
@ 1.08
LOUI win
no forecast
@ 8.25
2nd half Spread TCU -16.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe +16.5
TCU -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
LOUI +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
TCU 2nd half total 48.5 · main lineActual: TCU under 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Louisiana Monroe 2nd half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Monroe over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Spread TCU -17.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe +17.5
TCU -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
LOUI +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread TCU -15.5Actual: Louisiana Monroe +15.5
TCU -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
LOUI +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
TCU
no forecast
@ 1.09
Draw
no forecast
@ 30.00
LOUI
no forecast
@ 7.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 169
77.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Under 166.5
71.8%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
Under 169.5
77.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
Under 167.5
73.9%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
Under 166
71.2%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Under 168.5
75.9%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Under 171.5
81.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Under 167
73.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Under 168
75.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
TCU over 77.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
TCU over 78.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 176.5
88.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Under 181.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 68.5
75.6%
1.29
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 67.5
72.4%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 69.5
78.7%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
TCU over 79.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
TCU over 76.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
TCU -13.5
95.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Lost
Under 170.5
79.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
TCU -23.5
82.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Under 180.5
92.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 78.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
TCU over 80.5
93.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 77.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
TCU over 81.5
92.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
TCU -14.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 76.5
93.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 70.5
81.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 79.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Under 179.5
91.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Under 175.5
87.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
TCU -18.5
90.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 75.5
91.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 71.5
84.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 72.5
86.3%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
TCU over 82.5
90.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe under 74.5
90.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
Under 174.5
85.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
TCU over 83.5
89.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
TCU -15.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Louisiana Monroe under 73.5
88.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Lost
TCU -24.5
79.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
TCU over 84.5
86.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
TCU -19.5
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
TCU over 85.5
84.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 134.5
92.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
TCU over 87.5
79.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
TCU over 86.5
82.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 46.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 48.5
90.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Over 135.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
TCU -20.5
88.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
Over 136.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
TCU over 88.5
76.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Over 139.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 50.5
86.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 51.5
84.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Over 140.5
85.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
TCU over 89.5
73.3%
1.19
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 53.5
79.3%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 52.5
82.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
83.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 55.5
73.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Over 144.5
78.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Louisiana Monroe over 54.5
76.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Over 145.5
76.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Over 146.5
74.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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