PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Arkansas State will host Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the model rates the Red Wolves as the clear favourite with a 98% chance of winning, driven by their 1-2 record, 74.0 points per game and 84.3 allowed, and a 1-1 home record of 68.0 to 76.0; the Golden Lions are 0-3, averaging 50.3 points and conceding 107.0, with a 0-3 road record of the same numbers, and have lost four of their last five games. Arkansas State's last five games include a 71-70 win over Toledo at home, a 65-82 loss to UT Martin at home and a 86-101 loss to Alabama away, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff's recent results feature a 37-106 loss to UCLA, a 53-109 loss to Baylor and a 61-106 loss to Arkansas. Their head-to-head history shows two meetings with one win each, the most recent being an 84-73 Arkansas State victory on 8 December 2021. Pythia projects a 94-68 score, 161.7 total points, a 98% probability that Arkansas State will win and a 2% chance for Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with no chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 74.0 | 84.3 | 158.3 | -10.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 68.0 | 76.0 | 144.0 | -8.0 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 86.0 | 101.0 | 187.0 | -15.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 84.1 | 79.3 | 163.4 | +4.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 78.2 | 154.2 | -2.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 78.7 | 87.7 | 166.3 | -9.0 | 33% |
| vs Similar (12) | 79.7 | 77.3 | 157.0 | +2.3 | 58% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (14) | 83.6 | 75.6 | 159.2 | +8.1 | 64% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 50.3 | 107.0 | 157.3 | -56.7 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (3) | 50.3 | 107.0 | 157.3 | -56.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.0 | 85.1 | 153.1 | -17.1 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 63.0 | 90.6 | 153.6 | -27.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 68.1 | 92.6 | 160.7 | -24.5 | 23% |
| vs Similar (9) | 74.4 | 77.1 | 151.6 | -2.7 | 44% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 91.0 | 68.2 | 159.2 | +22.8 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.1 | 35.9 | 75.0 | +3.2 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 40.2 | 34.1 | 74.4 | +6.1 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 37.7 | 38.2 | 75.9 | -0.5 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.0 | 39.9 | 80.9 | +1.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.0 | 40.8 | 75.8 | -5.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 35.7 | 46.7 | 82.3 | -11.0 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 38.5 | 33.5 | 72.0 | +5.0 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (14) | 39.6 | 36.4 | 76.0 | +3.1 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.4 | 36.5 | 71.9 | -1.0 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (11) | 43.2 | 35.1 | 78.3 | +8.1 | 82% | - |
| Last 30 away (19) | 30.9 | 37.3 | 68.2 | -6.3 | 37% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.1 | 40.6 | 71.7 | -9.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 24.8 | 42.8 | 67.6 | -18.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 30.8 | 41.5 | 72.2 | -10.7 | 31% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 35.2 | 33.0 | 68.2 | +2.2 | 56% | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | 43.2 | 32.2 | 75.5 | +11.0 | 88% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/12/21 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v Arkansas State | 73-84 |
| 10/12/20 | Arkansas State v Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 74-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | UT Martin | 65-82 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Alabama | 86-101 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Toledo | 71-70 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 77-80 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Louisiana Lafayette | 81-58 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Southern Miss | 89-84 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Louisiana Monroe | 102-94 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Louisiana Lafayette | 79-62 |
| 14/02/26 | H | South Alabama | 88-92 OT |
| 12/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 103-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | UCLA | 37-106 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Baylor | 53-109 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Arkansas | 61-106 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Southern Univ. | 81-84 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Alcorn State | 83-48 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Jackson State | 78-81 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 69-70 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 84-82 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Texas Southern | 64-83 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 70-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 74.0 | 68.0 | 86.0 |
| Allowed / game | 84.3 | 76.0 | 101.0 |
| Point differential | -10.3 | -8.0 | -15.0 |
| Avg total | 158.3 | 144.0 | 187.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | - | 3 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 50.3 | - | 50.3 |
| Allowed / game | 107.0 | - | 107.0 |
| Point differential | -56.7 | - | -56.7 |
| Avg total | 157.3 | - | 157.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.3 | 62.0 | +29.3 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.2 | 54.5 | +21.8 |
| 3 |  Southern Miss | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.3 | 66.0 | +8.3 |
| 4 |  Coastal Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 |
| 5 |  South Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.0 | 78.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 |  Appalachian State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 60.3 | +9.7 |
| 7 |  Marshall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 76.7 | +4.0 |
| 8 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 9 |  Georgia Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.3 | 82.3 | -2.0 |
| 10 |  James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 11 |  Troy | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 77.0 | -9.7 |
| 12 | Arkansas State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.0 | 84.3 | -10.3 |
| 13 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 86.5 | -2.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 67.8 | +13.5 |
| 2 |  Prairie View A&M | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.8 | 80.2 | -1.5 |
| 3 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 4 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 5 |  Texas Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 91.0 | -15.0 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Jackson State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.5 | 85.8 | -19.2 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.3 | 87.0 | -24.7 |
| 10 |  Southern Univ. | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.4 | 88.2 | -27.8 |
| 11 |  Alcorn State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 66.0 | 95.7 | -29.7 |
| 12 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 50.3 | 107.0 | -56.7 |
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