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Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 06 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 77-80
0-0 34-42 0-0 43-38
Position#98
Record20-11
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game77.1
vs
Position#142
Record17-15
FormLLLWW
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game80.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Arkansas State v Georgia Southern
19 Dec 2026
ARKA v GEOR
upcoming
05 Mar 2026
ARKA77
GEOR80
04 Jan 2024
ARKA109
GEOR83
01 Jan 2022
ARKA74
GEOR56
05 Mar 2021
ARKA62
GEOR58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Georgia Southern winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Old Dominion
#300
L
71-75
71
75
-4
H29/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
61-70
61
70
-9
H31/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A05/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
91-54
91
54
+37
H07/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
103-70
103
70
+33
H12/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
102-94
102
94
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
33-38
0-0
38-37
0-0
38-41
0-0
23-29
0-0
27-29
0-0
43-37
0-0
40-14
0-0
51-40
0-0
49-37
0-0
54-33
0-0
41-32
0-0
42-51
0-0
36-33
0-0
43-29
0-0
56-49
0-0
46-45
0-0
53-44
0-0
36-40
0-0
37-22
0-0
44-36
156.0Avg total
83.5Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)83.277.1160.3+6.065%
Season at home (15)84.771.5156.3+13.273%
Season away (16)81.782.4164.1-0.756%
Last 10 (10)83.572.5156.0+11.070%
Last 5 (5)87.878.0165.8+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.085.0159.0-11.033%
vs Similar (11)80.578.0158.5+2.555%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)84.375.9160.2+8.471%
This opponent (Georgia Southern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Georgia SouthernUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
79-76
79
76
+3
A30/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
60-69
60
69
-9
A31/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
L
71-77
71
77
-6
H05/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
65-81
65
81
-16
H12/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
101-87
101
87
+14
H15/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A20/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
74-89
74
89
-15
A21/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
66-82
66
82
-16
A26/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
99-82
99
82
+17
A28/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
88-84
88
84
+4
H05/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
37-33
0-0
42-43
0-0
29-29
0-0
31-40
0-0
31-30
0-0
40-47
0-0
27-31
0-0
38-50
0-0
59-42
0-0
42-45
0-0
27-37
0-0
37-29
0-0
33-40
0-0
41-49
0-0
37-38
0-0
29-44
0-0
38-40
0-0
61-42
0-0
39-37
0-0
49-47
156.0Avg total
76.7Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)80.780.0160.7+0.753%
Season at home (16)83.278.4161.6+4.862%
Season away (16)78.181.6159.8-3.544%
Last 10 (10)76.779.3156.0-2.640%
Last 5 (5)78.280.6158.8-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)71.284.5155.8-13.20%
vs Similar (15)82.383.3165.5-1.060%
vs Weaker (10)78.271.2149.4+7.060%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +7.1+7.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: -2.6-2.6
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +7.1+7.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +4.3+4.3Q4: -2.6-2.6
Arkansas StateGeorgia Southern
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Old Dominion
#300
L
33-38
33
38
-5
H29/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H31/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A05/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
40-14
40
14
+26
H07/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H12/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H28/02
NCAA
74.9Avg total
41.0Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.535.474.9+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.731.873.5+9.980%-
Last 30 away (15)37.339.076.3-1.753%-
Last 10 (10)41.033.974.9+7.170%-
Last 5 (5)44.636.080.6+8.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.342.779.0-6.333%-
vs Similar (11)38.733.472.1+5.473%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)39.536.776.2+2.864%-
This opponent (Georgia Southern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Georgia SouthernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A30/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A31/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H05/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
27-31
27
31
-4
H12/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
59-42
59
42
+17
H15/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A20/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A21/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A26/02
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A28/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H05/03
NCAA
71.4Avg total
35.7Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.736.674.2+1.153%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.735.974.5+2.867%-
Last 30 away (15)36.737.373.9-0.640%-
Last 10 (10)35.735.771.4+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)34.838.473.2-3.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)33.239.272.5-6.00%-
vs Similar (15)38.337.075.3+1.347%-
vs Weaker (10)38.134.472.5+3.780%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Arkansas State wins
1
Georgia Southern wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette81-58
25/02/26HSouthern Miss89-84
21/02/26ALouisiana Monroe102-94
20/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette79-62
14/02/26HSouth Alabama88-92 OT
12/02/26HLouisiana Monroe103-70
07/02/26HBowling Green91-54
05/02/26ACoastal Carolina70-66
31/01/26HMarshall61-70
29/01/26HOld Dominion71-75
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26HOld Dominion88-84
28/02/26AMarshall99-82
26/02/26AJames Madison66-82
21/02/26AAppalachian State74-89
20/02/26AGeorgia State64-66
15/02/26HMarshall101-87
12/02/26HAppalachian State65-81
05/02/26HTexas State71-77
31/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette60-69
30/01/26ALouisiana Monroe79-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW65%
HomeWWLWW73%
AwayWLWWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %65%73%56%
Points / game83.284.781.7
Allowed / game77.171.582.4
Point differential+6.0+13.2-0.7
Avg total160.3156.3164.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%53%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)50% (6)50% (6)
Overtime %10%13%6%
Georgia Southern
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW53%
HomeLLLWW62%
AwayLLLLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %53%62%44%
Points / game80.783.278.1
Allowed / game80.078.481.6
Point differential+0.7+4.8-3.5
Avg total160.7161.6159.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%31%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (13)67% (6)57% (7)
Overtime %9%12%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy31201165%80.573.6+6.9
2 Arkansas State31201165%83.277.1+6.0
3 Appalachian State31191261%72.065.4+6.6
4 South Alabama31191261%73.969.4+4.5
5 Marshall31191261%81.277.9+3.3
6 Texas State31191261%73.870.6+3.2
7 Coastal Carolina31191261%73.471.8+1.5
8 James Madison33181555%74.573.8+0.7
9 Georgia Southern32171553%80.780.0+0.7
10 Southern Miss32171553%74.373.7+0.7
11 Old Dominion33122136%76.277.9-1.7
12 Louisiana Lafayette33112233%63.770.7-7.0
13 Georgia State32102231%70.474.7-4.3
14 Louisiana Monroe3242812%72.483.9-11.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Arkansas State03404377
Georgia Southern04203880
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