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Arkansas vs Fresno State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 82-58
34-24 48-34
Position#36
Record6-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game72.6
vs
Position#275
Record6-3
FormWWWWL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game68.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Fresno State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ArkansasUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
W
75-66
75
66
+9
A22/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#33
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
A28/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
109-77
109
77
+32
H04/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A09/11
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
93-56
93
56
+37
H12/11
NCAA
Samford
#149
W
79-75
79
75
+4
H15/11
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
84-83
84
83
+1
H19/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
115-61
115
61
+54
H22/11
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
71-80
71
80
-9
H28/11
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H04/12
NCAA
1H
2H
35-32
40-34
38-31
34-41
57-32
52-45
39-36
27-33
43-34
50-22
45-35
34-40
43-41
41-42
47-19
68-42
35-41
36-39
47-29
42-51
159.6Avg total
86.4Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)88.272.6160.9+15.675%
Season at home (7)91.473.1164.6+18.386%
Season away (1)66.069.0135.0-3.00%
Last 10 (10)86.473.2159.6+13.270%
Last 5 (5)87.675.8163.4+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)73.877.8151.5-4.025%
vs Similar (15)78.974.3153.2+4.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)81.769.9151.6+11.971%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nevada
#189
L
71-86
71
86
-15
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#524
W
88-51
88
51
+37
H04/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
66-67
66
67
-1
H06/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
82-62
82
62
+20
H08/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H13/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
75-74
75
74
+1
H16/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
W
80-78
80
78
+2
H19/11
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
85-76
85
76
+9
H22/11
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
76-53
76
53
+23
H27/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H30/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-44
39-42
42-29
46-22
36-25
30-42
28-20
54-42
30-42
43-36
33-40
42-34
39-42
41-36
41-37
44-39
27-35
49-18
40-34
31-42
146.8Avg total
76.7Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)77.368.3145.7+9.067%
Season at home (9)77.368.3145.7+9.067%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.770.1146.8+6.660%
Last 5 (5)77.471.4148.8+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)70.682.1152.7-11.514%
vs Similar (5)75.268.4143.6+6.860%
vs Weaker (2)73.564.5138.0+9.050%
This opponent (Arkansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.9+9.91st half: +0.0+0.02nd half2nd half: +3.5+3.52nd half: +6.6+6.6
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +9.9+9.91st half: +0.0+0.02nd half2nd half: +3.5+3.52nd half: +6.6+6.6
ArkansasFresno State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ArkansasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A22/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#33
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A28/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
57-32
57
32
+25
H04/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A09/11
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H12/11
NCAA
Samford
#149
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H15/11
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H19/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H22/11
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H28/11
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
47-29
47
29
+18
H04/12
NCAA
75.9Avg total
42.9Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.735.673.3+2.257%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.734.874.5+4.953%-
Last 30 away (13)35.236.571.7-1.462%-
Last 10 (10)42.933.075.9+9.990%-
Last 5 (5)43.433.076.4+10.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)33.838.171.9-4.425%-
vs Similar (15)38.836.375.1+2.567%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)40.031.071.0+9.071%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nevada
#189
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#524
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H04/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H06/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
28-20
28
20
+8
H08/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H13/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H16/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H19/11
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H22/11
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H27/11
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H30/11
NCAA
69.6Avg total
34.8Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.736.568.2-4.833%-
Last 30 at home (19)32.733.666.3-0.942%-
Last 30 away (11)30.141.571.6-11.518%-
Last 10 (10)34.834.869.6+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)36.037.673.6-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)30.239.169.3-8.914%-
vs Similar (5)35.627.463.0+8.2100%-
vs Weaker (2)33.534.568.0-1.050%-
This opponent (Arkansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Arkansas wins
0
Fresno State wins
No previous meetings.
Arkansaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25HLouisville89-80
28/11/25HDuke71-80
22/11/25HJackson State115-61
19/11/25HWinthrop84-83
15/11/25HSamford79-75
12/11/25HCentral Arkansas93-56
09/11/25AMichigan State66-69
04/11/25HSouthern Univ.109-77
28/03/25ATexas Tech83-85 OT
22/03/25ASt. John's (N.Y.)75-66
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/11/25HCSU Bakersfield71-76
27/11/25HPepperdine76-53
22/11/25HNew Orleans85-76
19/11/25HStephen F. Austin80-78
16/11/25HUtah Valley State75-74
13/11/25HUC San Diego73-78
08/11/25HLong Beach State82-62
06/11/25HUSC Upstate66-67
04/11/25HFresno Pacific88-51
12/03/25ANevada71-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW75%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games871
Win %75%86%0%
Points / game88.291.466.0
Allowed / game72.673.169.0
Point differential+15.6+18.3-3.0
Avg total160.9164.6135.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%43%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Fresno State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL67%
HomeWWWWL67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games99-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game77.377.3-
Allowed / game68.368.3-
Point differential+9.0+9.0-
Avg total145.7145.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)40% (5)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 LSU880100%92.268.4+23.9
2 Vanderbilt990100%96.873.0+23.8
3 Georgia98189%99.971.2+28.7
4 Missouri98189%90.469.0+21.4
5 Tennessee97278%83.065.0+18.0
6 Texas A&M97278%92.275.1+17.1
7 Auburn97278%87.974.4+13.4
8 Arkansas86275%88.272.6+15.6
9 Oklahoma86275%86.573.6+12.9
10 Alabama86275%94.982.2+12.6
11 Texas96367%88.473.7+14.8
12 South Carolina96367%81.169.7+11.4
13 Florida85362%83.471.9+11.5
14 Ole Miss85362%77.568.6+8.9
15 Mississippi St.85362%82.478.2+4.1
16 Kentucky95456%83.667.0+16.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State87188%85.468.1+17.2
2 Wyoming86275%85.169.8+15.4
3 Colorado State86275%84.071.4+12.6
4 New Mexico86275%80.268.8+11.5
5 Fresno State96367%77.368.3+9.0
6 Boise State96367%78.270.3+7.9
7 Nevada96367%77.273.7+3.6
8 Grand Canyon85362%73.666.5+7.1
9 San Diego State74357%80.977.3+3.6
10 San Jose State94544%73.671.4+2.1
11 UNLV83538%84.286.1-1.9
12 Air Force103730%67.274.8-7.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas344882
Fresno State243458
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