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Fresno State vs Stephen F. Austin Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 19 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 80-78
39-42 41-36
Position#275
Record3-2
FormWLWLW
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game66.4
vs
Position#12
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game69.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fresno State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Stephen F. Austin winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Air Force
#367
L
69-72 OT
69
72
-3
A22/02
NCAA
Boise State
#55
L
61-66
61
66
-5
H02/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#306
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H05/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#251
L
68-92
68
92
-24
A08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#189
L
71-86
71
86
-15
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#524
W
88-51
88
51
+37
H04/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
66-67
66
67
-1
H06/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
82-62
82
62
+20
H08/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H13/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
75-74
75
74
+1
H16/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-31
29-30
26-27
35-39
27-24
35-34
32-42
36-50
32-44
39-42
42-29
46-22
36-25
30-42
28-20
54-42
30-42
43-36
33-40
42-34
142.1Avg total
71.5Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)76.866.4143.2+10.460%
Season at home (5)76.866.4143.2+10.460%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.570.6142.1+0.940%
Last 5 (5)76.866.4143.2+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)69.582.8152.3-13.38%
vs Similar (5)72.866.2139.0+6.660%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Stephen F. Austin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stephen F. AustinUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern St.
#198
W
70-68
70
68
+2
A15/02
NCAA
TX A&M Commerce
#363
W
76-74
76
74
+2
A18/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#190
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A22/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#304
L
56-72
56
72
-16
A25/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#122
L
70-94
70
94
-24
H01/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#20
L
64-95
64
95
-31
H04/03
NCAA
Millsaps
#450
W
103-76
103
76
+27
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
90-65
90
65
+25
H08/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
81-69
81
69
+12
A12/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-31
30-37
39-36
37-38
32-34
29-29
25-28
31-44
33-46
37-48
37-46
27-49
57-35
46-41
46-31
44-34
36-31
45-38
35-33
41-33
148.9Avg total
74.7Scored
74.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)87.569.0156.5+18.5100%
Season at home (3)89.769.0158.7+20.7100%
Season away (1)81.069.0150.0+12.0100%
Last 10 (10)74.774.2148.9+0.560%
Last 5 (5)82.874.2157.0+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)63.971.0134.9-7.127%
vs Similar (6)64.567.3131.8-2.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)80.068.4148.4+11.6100%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.6-0.61st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: -2.4-2.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.6-0.61st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: +1.8+1.82nd half: -2.4-2.4
Fresno StateStephen F. Austin
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Air Force
#367
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A22/02
NCAA
Boise State
#55
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H02/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#306
W
27-24
27
24
+3
H05/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#251
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#189
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#524
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H04/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H06/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
28-20
28
20
+8
H08/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H13/11
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H16/11
NCAA
64.2Avg total
31.8Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.436.466.9-6.027%-
Last 30 at home (17)31.232.763.9-1.535%-
Last 30 away (13)29.541.370.8-11.815%-
Last 10 (10)31.832.464.2-0.650%-
Last 5 (5)33.831.265.0+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)29.238.667.9-9.412%-
vs Similar (5)33.827.461.2+6.480%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Stephen F. Austin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stephen F. AustinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern St.
#198
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A15/02
NCAA
TX A&M Commerce
#363
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A18/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#190
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A22/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#304
L
25-28
25
28
-3
A25/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#122
L
33-46
33
46
-13
H01/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#20
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H04/03
NCAA
Millsaps
#450
W
57-35
57
35
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H08/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A12/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H15/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
38.0Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.732.664.3-0.943%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.332.465.8+0.950%-
Last 30 away (14)29.932.862.6-2.936%-
Last 10 (10)38.035.173.1+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)42.235.277.4+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)28.934.363.1-5.420%-
vs Similar (6)28.029.757.7-1.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)36.631.468.0+5.288%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Fresno State wins
0
Stephen F. Austin wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/25HUtah Valley State75-74
13/11/25HUC San Diego73-78
08/11/25HLong Beach State82-62
06/11/25HUSC Upstate66-67
04/11/25HFresno Pacific88-51
12/03/25ANevada71-86
08/03/25ASan Jose State68-92
05/03/25HWyoming62-58
02/03/25HBoise State61-66
22/02/25AAir Force69-72 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/25HAbilene Christian76-66
12/11/25ARice81-69
08/11/25HArkansas State90-65
03/11/25HMillsaps103-76
04/03/25HMcNeese State64-95
01/03/25HNicholls State70-94
25/02/25AHouston Christian56-72
22/02/25AIncarnate Word61-63
18/02/25ATX A&M Commerce76-74
15/02/25ANorthwestern St.70-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fresno State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW60%
HomeWLWLW60%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games55-
Win %60%60%-
Points / game76.876.8-
Allowed / game66.466.4-
Point differential+10.4+10.4-
Avg total143.2143.2-
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%40%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)33% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Stephen F. Austin
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game87.589.781.0
Allowed / game69.069.069.0
Point differential+18.5+20.7+12.0
Avg total156.5158.7150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Diego State220100%75.051.0+24.0
2 Utah State440100%87.063.8+23.2
3 Wyoming440100%90.869.5+21.2
4 Colorado State440100%92.071.0+21.0
5 Boise State43175%81.569.8+11.8
6 New Mexico43175%75.063.5+11.5
7 Nevada43175%81.076.5+4.5
8 Fresno State53260%76.866.4+10.4
9 UNLV42250%91.883.8+8.0
10 Grand Canyon42250%80.874.5+6.2
11 San Jose State41325%79.876.0+3.8
12 Air Force4040%62.576.2-13.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin440100%87.569.0+18.5
2 McNeese State43175%103.564.0+39.5
3 New Orleans43175%84.075.8+8.2
4 Lamar32167%79.065.7+13.3
5 Houston Christian32167%68.769.7-1.0
6 Incarnate Word42250%84.574.2+10.2
7 UTRGV31233%85.378.0+7.3
8 Northwestern St.41325%74.885.0-10.2
9 Texas A&M-CC51420%66.674.4-7.8
10 SE Louisiana4040%59.572.8-13.2
11 Nicholls State4040%62.577.2-14.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Fresno State394180
Stephen F. Austin423678
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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