Ballarat vs Geelong Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 08 Jul 2015

Tip-off: 10:00

Final 77-93

23-33 23-20 18-22 13-18

Position#7

Record7-9

FormLWLWL

Points / game87.4

Allowed / game87.0

Ballarat

Geelong 🏆

Position#3

Record10-5

FormWLLWW

Points / game85.7

Allowed / game81.5

SEABLRound 13

Other2015

Meetings · Ballarat v Geelong

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballarat winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Geelong winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ballarat

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Canberra

#14

91-83

H09/05

SEABL

Albury

89-99

-10

A16/05

SEABL

Dandenong

90-101

101

-11

H23/05

SEABL

Hobart Chargers

#10

69-83

-14

A29/05

SEABL

NW Tasmania

101-85

101

+16

A30/05

SEABL

Bendigo

76-85

-9

A13/06

SEABL

Southern Sabres

#12

90-79

+11

A20/06

SEABL

Mt Gambier

73-91

-18

H21/06

SEABL

Brisbane Spartans

#13

106-82

106

+24

H27/06

SEABL

Hobart Chargers

#10

75-85

-10

H04/07

SEABL

24-16

28-25

27-20

12-22

18-25

19-29

26-21

26-24

24-32

24-19

18-29

24-21

24-27

21-24

9-15

15-17

19-25

26-25

21-14

35-21

21-20

23-17

26-26

6-22

14-23

23-20

32-14

21-22

24-23

21-21

14-27

14-20

31-22

24-22

20-19

31-19

13-20

19-20

14-17

29-28

173.3Avg total

86.0Scored

87.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (16)	87.4	87.0	174.4	+0.4	44%
Season at home (8)	89.1	87.1	176.2	+2.0	50%
Season away (8)	85.6	86.9	172.5	-1.2	38%
Last 10 (10)	86.0	87.3	173.3	-1.3	40%
Last 5 (5)	84.0	84.4	168.4	-0.4	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	73.0	91.0	164.0	-18.0	0%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	87.0	90.4	177.4	-3.4	38%
vs Weaker (7)	89.9	82.6	172.4	+7.3	57%

This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Geelong

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Dandenong

101-79

101

+22

A09/05

SEABL

Frankston

#15

91-78

+13

H10/05

SEABL

Southern Sabres

#12

93-88

A16/05

SEABL

Nunawading

83-94

-11

A17/05

SEABL

Brisbane Spartans

#13

97-95 OT

H24/05

SEABL

Canberra

#14

83-80

H30/05

SEABL

Albury

74-85

-11

A13/06

SEABL

Mt Gambier

73-94

-21

H20/06

SEABL

Nunawading

94-63

+31

H27/06

SEABL

NW Tasmania

86-76

+10

H05/07

SEABL

23-23

26-19

20-22

32-15

24-16

21-22

21-21

25-19

26-28

23-18

19-23

25-19

23-27

20-15

15-23

25-29

18-26

24-24

20-15

25-22

20-26

29-15

16-14

18-25

19-24

26-19

13-20

16-22

15-25

17-29

17-25

24-15

31-15

19-18

20-23

24-7

13-19

27-20

21-14

25-23

170.7Avg total

87.5Scored

83.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (15)	85.7	81.5	167.2	+4.1	67%
Season at home (8)	88.4	82.8	171.1	+5.6	75%
Season away (7)	82.6	80.1	162.7	+2.4	57%
Last 10 (10)	87.5	83.2	170.7	+4.3	70%
Last 5 (5)	82.0	79.6	161.6	+2.4	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	73.0	94.0	167.0	-21.0	0%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	86.5	82.8	169.3	+3.7	50%
vs Weaker (8)	86.6	79.0	165.6	+7.6	88%

This opponent (Ballarat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

BallaratGeelong

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (16)	22.6	22.4	44.9	+0.2	56%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	23.1	21.8	44.9	+1.4	62%	-
Last 30 away (8)	22.0	23.0	45.0	-1.0	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.2	23.3	44.5	-2.1	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.6	21.6	42.2	-1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	24.0	23.0	47.0	+1.0	100%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	23.0	22.6	45.6	+0.4	62%	-
vs Weaker (7)	21.9	22.0	43.9	-0.1	43%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (15)	21.1	22.9	44.1	-1.8	33%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	21.4	22.2	43.6	-0.9	38%	-
Last 30 away (7)	20.9	23.7	44.6	-2.9	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.2	22.9	44.1	-1.7	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.6	21.8	41.4	-2.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	15.0	25.0	40.0	-10.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (6)	19.3	23.7	43.0	-4.3	17%	-
vs Weaker (8)	23.2	22.1	45.4	+1.1	50%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (16)	21.0	22.1	43.1	-1.1	50%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	22.4	21.2	43.6	+1.1	62%	-
Last 30 away (8)	19.6	22.9	42.5	-3.2	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.8	22.2	45.0	+0.6	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.0	20.0	42.0	+2.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	21.0	21.0	42.0	+0.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	21.1	21.8	42.9	-0.6	62%	-
vs Weaker (7)	20.9	22.6	43.4	-1.7	43%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (15)	23.3	19.4	42.7	+3.9	73%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	23.1	21.2	44.4	+1.9	62%	-
Last 30 away (7)	23.6	17.3	40.9	+6.3	86%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.2	19.9	43.1	+3.3	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.6	20.2	43.8	+3.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	17.0	29.0	46.0	-12.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (6)	25.7	20.0	45.7	+5.7	100%	-
vs Weaker (8)	22.4	17.8	40.1	+4.6	62%	-

BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Canberra

#14

52-41

+11

H09/05

SEABL

Albury

37-54

-17

A16/05

SEABL

Dandenong

48-51

-3

H23/05

SEABL

Hobart Chargers

#10

45-51

-6

A29/05

SEABL

NW Tasmania

45-50

-5

A30/05

SEABL

Bendigo

44-37

A13/06

SEABL

Southern Sabres

#12

37-43

-6

A20/06

SEABL

Mt Gambier

45-44

H21/06

SEABL

Brisbane Spartans

#13

55-44

+11

H27/06

SEABL

Hobart Chargers

#10

32-40

-8

H04/07

SEABL

89.5Avg total

44.0Scored

45.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (16)	43.6	44.4	88.0	-0.9	44%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	45.5	43.0	88.5	+2.5	62%	-
Last 30 away (8)	41.6	45.9	87.5	-4.2	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.0	45.5	89.5	-1.5	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.6	41.6	84.2	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	45.0	44.0	89.0	+1.0	100%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	44.1	44.4	88.5	-0.2	50%	-
vs Weaker (7)	42.7	44.6	87.3	-1.9	29%	-

This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Dandenong

49-42

A09/05

SEABL

Frankston

#15

45-38

H10/05

SEABL

Southern Sabres

#12

49-46

A16/05

SEABL

Nunawading

43-42

A17/05

SEABL

Brisbane Spartans

#13

42-50

-8

H24/05

SEABL

Canberra

#14

49-41

H30/05

SEABL

Albury

45-43

A13/06

SEABL

Mt Gambier

32-54

-22

H20/06

SEABL

Nunawading

50-33

+17

H27/06

SEABL

NW Tasmania

40-39

H05/07

SEABL

87.2Avg total

44.4Scored

42.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (15)	44.5	42.3	86.8	+2.1	73%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	44.5	43.5	88.0	+1.0	62%	-
Last 30 away (7)	44.4	41.0	85.4	+3.4	86%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.4	42.8	87.2	+1.6	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.2	42.0	85.2	+1.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	32.0	54.0	86.0	-22.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (6)	45.0	43.7	88.7	+1.3	67%	-
vs Weaker (8)	45.6	39.9	85.5	+5.8	88%	-

This opponent (Ballarat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (16)	22.8	20.2	42.9	+2.6	56%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	21.0	22.0	43.0	-1.0	50%	-
Last 30 away (8)	24.5	18.4	42.9	+6.1	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.7	20.2	40.9	+0.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	20.6	41.8	+0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	14.0	27.0	41.0	-13.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	22.6	22.9	45.5	-0.2	50%	-
vs Weaker (7)	24.1	16.1	40.3	+8.0	71%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (15)	19.0	18.8	37.8	+0.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	20.0	18.8	38.8	+1.2	62%	-
Last 30 away (7)	17.9	18.9	36.7	-1.0	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.2	20.0	38.2	-1.8	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.4	19.2	36.6	-1.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	17.0	25.0	42.0	-8.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (6)	20.0	17.8	37.8	+2.2	67%	-
vs Weaker (8)	18.5	18.8	37.2	-0.2	38%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (16)	21.1	22.4	43.4	-1.3	38%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	22.6	22.1	44.8	+0.5	50%	-
Last 30 away (8)	19.5	22.6	42.1	-3.1	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.3	21.6	42.9	-0.3	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.2	22.2	42.4	-2.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	14.0	20.0	34.0	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	20.2	23.1	43.4	-2.9	38%	-
vs Weaker (7)	23.0	21.9	44.9	+1.1	43%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (15)	21.5	19.9	41.4	+1.7	47%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	22.6	19.5	42.1	+3.1	62%	-
Last 30 away (7)	20.3	20.3	40.6	+0.0	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.9	19.6	43.5	+4.3	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.4	18.4	39.8	+3.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	24.0	15.0	39.0	+9.0	100%	-
vs Similar ◀ (6)	21.5	21.3	42.8	+0.2	33%	-
vs Weaker (8)	21.2	19.4	40.6	+1.9	50%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (16)	43.8	42.6	86.4	+1.2	38%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	43.6	44.1	87.8	-0.5	25%	-
Last 30 away (8)	44.0	41.0	85.0	+3.0	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.0	41.8	83.8	+0.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	41.4	42.8	84.2	-1.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	28.0	47.0	75.0	-19.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (8)	42.9	46.0	88.9	-3.1	25%	-
vs Weaker (7)	47.1	38.0	85.1	+9.1	57%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (15)	40.5	38.7	79.2	+1.9	67%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	42.6	38.2	80.9	+4.4	75%	-
Last 30 away (7)	38.1	39.1	77.3	-1.0	57%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.1	39.6	81.7	+2.5	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.8	37.6	76.4	+1.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	41.0	40.0	81.0	+1.0	100%	-
vs Similar ◀ (6)	41.5	39.2	80.7	+2.3	67%	-
vs Weaker (8)	39.8	38.1	77.9	+1.6	62%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Ballarat wins

Geelong wins

Date	Game	Score
11/04/15	Geelong v Ballarat	87-89

Ballaratlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/07/15	H	Hobart Chargers	75-85
27/06/15	H	Brisbane Spartans	106-82
21/06/15	H	Mt Gambier	73-91
20/06/15	A	Southern Sabres	90-79
13/06/15	A	Bendigo	76-85
30/05/15	A	NW Tasmania	101-85
29/05/15	A	Hobart Chargers	69-83
23/05/15	H	Dandenong	90-101
16/05/15	A	Albury	89-99
09/05/15	H	Canberra	91-83

Geelonglast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
05/07/15	H	NW Tasmania	86-76
27/06/15	H	Nunawading	94-63
20/06/15	H	Mt Gambier	73-94
13/06/15	A	Albury	74-85
30/05/15	H	Canberra	83-80
24/05/15	H	Brisbane Spartans	97-95 OT
17/05/15	A	Nunawading	83-94
16/05/15	A	Southern Sabres	93-88
10/05/15	H	Frankston	91-78
09/05/15	A	Dandenong	101-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ballarat

SEABL 2015

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLWL	44%
Home	WLLWL	50%
Away	LLWLW	38%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	16	8	8
Win %	44%	50%	38%
Points / game	87.4	89.1	85.6
Allowed / game	87.0	87.1	86.9
Point differential	+0.4	+2.0	-1.2
Avg total	174.4	176.2	172.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	31%	38%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	-	33% (3)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Geelong

SEABL 2015

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLWW	67%
Home	WWLWW	75%
Away	WWWLL	57%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	15	8	7
Win %	67%	75%	57%
Points / game	85.7	88.4	82.6
Allowed / game	81.5	82.8	80.1
Point differential	+4.1	+5.6	+2.4
Avg total	167.2	171.1	162.7
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	27%	38%	14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	75% (4)	67% (3)	100% (1)
Overtime %	7%	12%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Mt Gambier	16	14	2	88%	87.8	73.5	+14.2
2	Geelong	15	10	5	67%	85.7	81.5	+4.1
3	Albury	16	10	6	62%	86.5	81.8	+4.8
4	BA CoE	10	6	4	60%	86.8	86.0	+0.8
5	Bendigo	14	8	6	57%	85.4	84.1	+1.2
6	NW Tasmania	16	9	7	56%	81.1	81.0	+0.1
7	Dandenong	16	9	7	56%	83.1	84.3	-1.2
8	Nunawading	17	9	8	53%	86.4	86.2	+0.2
9	Ballarat	16	7	9	44%	87.4	87.0	+0.4
10	Kilsyth	16	7	9	44%	78.7	78.8	-0.1
11	Hobart Chargers	16	7	9	44%	70.0	70.8	-0.8
12	Southern Sabres	17	7	10	41%	81.2	82.0	-0.8
13	Canberra	17	6	11	35%	76.9	84.6	-7.6
14	Brisbane Spartans	16	5	11	31%	80.3	84.2	-3.9
15	Frankston	16	3	13	19%	78.1	88.2	-10.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Ballarat	23	23	18	13	77
Geelong	33	20	22	18	93

← all games of the day

Ballarat vs Geelong Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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