Ballarat vs Geelong Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 03 Jul 2019

Tip-off: 10:00

Final 97-69

23-17 24-12 20-19 30-21

Position#1

Record14-2

FormLWWWW

Points / game91.4

Allowed / game76.2

Ballarat 🏆

Geelong

Position#4

Record11-6

FormWWLWW

Points / game81.9

Allowed / game78.6

NBL 1

Other2019

Meetings · Ballarat v Geelong

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballarat winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Geelong winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ballarat

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Eltham

#17

104-80

104

+24

A12/05

NBL 1

BA CoE

#15

77-80 OT

-3

H18/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

94-67

+27

H25/05

NBL 1

Southern Sabres

#18

100-66

100

+34

A26/05

NBL 1

Ringwood

#16

101-79

101

+22

H01/06

NBL 1

Frankston

80-87

-7

A02/06

NBL 1

Geelong

66-62

A15/06

NBL 1

Bendigo Braves

88-84

A22/06

NBL 1

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

103-93

103

+10

H23/06

NBL 1

Diamond Valley

#11

79-73

H29/06

NBL 1

27-20

21-20

29-19

27-21

27-16

15-16

17-21

14-20

24-15

28-20

22-10

20-22

28-19

29-15

22-11

21-21

22-17

23-18

25-20

31-24

21-25

20-27

21-18

18-17

18-14

20-21

17-12

11-15

28-25

21-25

21-19

18-15

22-23

31-34

25-17

25-19

24-22

18-28

19-18

18-5

166.3Avg total

89.2Scored

77.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (16)	91.4	76.2	167.6	+15.2	88%
Season at home (6)	91.3	79.7	171.0	+11.7	83%
Season away (10)	91.5	74.1	165.6	+17.4	90%
Last 10 (10)	89.2	77.1	166.3	+12.1	80%
Last 5 (5)	83.2	79.8	163.0	+3.4	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	81.0	87.0	168.0	-6.0	50%
vs Similar (3)	100.3	91.0	191.3	+9.3	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	91.6	78.7	170.3	+12.9	83%

This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Geelong

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

104-103

104

103

H11/05

NBL 1

Bendigo Braves

80-96

-16

A12/05

NBL 1

Melbourne Tigers

66-72

-6

A18/05

NBL 1

Diamond Valley

#11

87-81

H19/05

NBL 1

Dandenong

74-69

H25/05

NBL 1

Hobart Huskies

81-70

+11

A31/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

94-85

A01/06

NBL 1

Ballarat

62-66

-4

H15/06

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

79-74

H21/06

NBL 1

Southern Sabres

#18

89-78

+11

A29/06

NBL 1

24-22

30-24

24-23

26-34

22-31

22-19

17-29

19-17

22-16

15-17

17-16

12-23

16-22

29-17

28-19

14-23

18-18

17-16

18-12

21-23

20-23

30-19

17-18

14-10

29-21

17-18

24-16

24-30

14-18

21-20

12-17

15-11

14-25

25-11

20-18

20-20

20-19

25-22

24-21

20-16

161.0Avg total

81.6Scored

79.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (17)	81.9	78.6	160.5	+3.2	65%
Season at home (9)	82.8	80.6	163.3	+2.2	67%
Season away (8)	80.9	76.5	157.4	+4.4	62%
Last 10 (10)	81.6	79.4	161.0	+2.2	70%
Last 5 (5)	81.0	74.6	155.6	+6.4	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	76.3	88.0	164.3	-11.7	0%
vs Similar (11)	82.5	85.3	167.7	-2.8	55%
vs Weaker (13)	89.4	76.2	165.5	+13.2	100%

This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

BallaratGeelong

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.8	20.2	44.0	+3.6	73%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	24.0	19.9	43.9	+4.1	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.6	20.4	44.1	+3.2	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.1	19.6	43.7	+4.5	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.6	21.8	44.4	+0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	19.2	26.0	45.2	-6.8	25%	-
vs Similar (3)	25.0	23.7	48.7	+1.3	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	24.4	18.7	43.1	+5.7	83%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.3	22.1	44.4	+0.1	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	21.1	20.8	41.9	+0.2	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	23.6	23.6	47.3	+0.0	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.9	21.5	41.4	-1.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	21.2	40.6	-1.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	18.7	27.0	45.7	-8.3	0%	-
vs Similar (11)	22.8	23.1	45.9	-0.3	36%	-
vs Weaker (13)	23.5	19.1	42.5	+4.4	77%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.7	21.0	43.7	+1.8	57%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.3	19.7	42.0	+2.6	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.1	22.1	45.2	+1.1	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.6	22.4	45.0	+0.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.0	27.0	49.0	-5.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	19.8	24.0	43.8	-4.2	50%	-
vs Similar (3)	23.0	17.3	40.3	+5.7	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	23.2	20.9	44.1	+2.3	57%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.4	20.0	40.4	+0.3	57%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	21.8	19.1	40.9	+2.6	69%	-
Last 30 away (14)	18.8	21.1	39.9	-2.3	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.1	18.3	41.4	+4.8	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.6	18.0	41.6	+5.6	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	16.5	21.3	37.8	-4.8	33%	-
vs Similar (11)	21.6	21.5	43.2	+0.1	64%	-
vs Weaker (13)	21.1	18.2	39.2	+2.9	62%	-

BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Eltham

#17

48-40

A12/05

NBL 1

BA CoE

#15

42-32

+10

H18/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

52-35

+17

H25/05

NBL 1

Southern Sabres

#18

57-34

+23

A26/05

NBL 1

Ringwood

#16

45-35

+10

H01/06

NBL 1

Frankston

41-52

-11

A02/06

NBL 1

Geelong

38-35

A15/06

NBL 1

Bendigo Braves

49-50

-1

A22/06

NBL 1

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

53-57

-4

H23/06

NBL 1

Diamond Valley

#11

42-50

-8

H29/06

NBL 1

88.7Avg total

46.7Scored

42.0Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	46.5	41.1	87.7	+5.4	63%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	46.3	39.6	85.9	+6.7	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	46.8	42.5	89.2	+4.2	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	46.7	42.0	88.7	+4.7	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.6	48.8	93.4	-4.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	39.0	50.0	89.0	-11.0	25%	-
vs Similar (3)	48.0	41.0	89.0	+7.0	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	47.7	39.6	87.3	+8.0	70%	-

This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

54-46

H11/05

NBL 1

Bendigo Braves

44-50

-6

A12/05

NBL 1

Melbourne Tigers

37-33

A18/05

NBL 1

Diamond Valley

#11

45-39

H19/05

NBL 1

Dandenong

35-34

H25/05

NBL 1

Hobart Huskies

50-42

A31/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

46-39

A01/06

NBL 1

Ballarat

35-38

-3

H15/06

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

39-36

H21/06

NBL 1

Southern Sabres

#18

45-41

A29/06

NBL 1

82.8Avg total

43.0Scored

39.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.6	42.2	84.8	+0.5	63%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	42.8	39.9	82.8	+2.9	69%	-
Last 30 away (14)	42.4	44.7	87.1	-2.3	57%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.0	39.8	82.8	+3.2	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.0	39.2	82.2	+3.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	35.2	48.3	83.5	-13.2	17%	-
vs Similar (11)	44.5	44.6	89.1	-0.2	64%	-
vs Weaker (13)	44.5	37.2	81.8	+7.3	85%	-

This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.5	18.2	40.7	+4.3	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.6	18.1	40.7	+4.6	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	22.4	18.4	40.8	+4.0	69%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.8	16.5	38.3	+5.3	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.6	16.8	37.4	+3.8	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	20.5	13.5	34.0	+7.0	75%	-
vs Similar (3)	26.0	20.7	46.7	+5.3	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	22.4	18.7	41.1	+3.7	70%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.5	19.1	40.6	+2.4	57%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	22.7	19.2	41.9	+3.5	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	20.1	19.0	39.1	+1.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.1	18.9	39.0	+1.2	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	18.0	37.4	+1.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	20.8	19.7	40.5	+1.2	50%	-
vs Similar (11)	20.3	19.0	39.3	+1.3	55%	-
vs Weaker (13)	22.8	18.9	41.8	+3.9	62%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.6	20.9	42.4	+0.7	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	23.0	21.3	44.3	+1.7	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	20.3	20.5	40.8	-0.2	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.3	17.9	38.2	+2.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.0	14.2	32.2	+3.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	21.5	23.5	45.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Similar (3)	23.3	23.7	47.0	-0.3	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	21.3	20.0	41.4	+1.3	52%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.1	20.6	40.7	-0.5	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	20.4	20.3	40.8	+0.1	31%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.7	20.9	40.6	-1.2	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.5	20.7	39.2	-2.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.6	17.4	36.0	+1.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	20.3	20.0	40.3	+0.3	50%	-
vs Similar (11)	17.7	21.6	39.4	-3.9	27%	-
vs Weaker (13)	22.0	20.0	42.0	+2.0	46%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	44.1	39.1	83.2	+5.0	73%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	45.6	39.4	85.0	+6.3	86%	-
Last 30 away (16)	42.7	38.9	81.6	+3.8	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.1	34.4	76.5	+7.7	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.6	31.0	69.6	+7.6	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	42.0	37.0	79.0	+5.0	75%	-
vs Similar (3)	49.3	44.3	93.7	+5.0	100%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	43.7	38.8	82.5	+5.0	70%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	41.6	39.7	81.3	+1.9	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	43.1	39.5	82.6	+3.6	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	39.9	39.9	79.8	-0.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.6	39.6	78.2	-1.0	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.0	35.4	73.4	+2.6	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	41.2	39.7	80.8	+1.5	33%	-
vs Similar (11)	38.0	40.6	78.6	-2.6	36%	-
vs Weaker (13)	44.8	38.9	83.8	+5.9	77%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Ballarat wins

Geelong wins

Date	Game	Score
15/06/19	Geelong v Ballarat	62-66
07/07/17	Ballarat v Geelong	107-84
31/03/17	Geelong v Ballarat	100-76
02/07/16	Ballarat v Geelong	78-91
08/07/15	Ballarat v Geelong	77-93
11/04/15	Geelong v Ballarat	87-89

Ballaratlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
29/06/19	H	Diamond Valley	79-73
23/06/19	H	Albury-Wodonga Bandits	103-93
22/06/19	A	Bendigo Braves	88-84
15/06/19	A	Geelong	66-62
02/06/19	A	Frankston	80-87
01/06/19	H	Ringwood	101-79
26/05/19	A	Southern Sabres	100-66
25/05/19	H	NW Tasmania	94-67
18/05/19	H	BA CoE	77-80 OT
12/05/19	A	Eltham	104-80

Geelonglast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
29/06/19	A	Southern Sabres	89-78
21/06/19	H	NW Tasmania	79-74
15/06/19	H	Ballarat	62-66
01/06/19	A	NW Tasmania	94-85
31/05/19	A	Hobart Huskies	81-70
25/05/19	H	Dandenong	74-69
19/05/19	H	Diamond Valley	87-81
18/05/19	A	Melbourne Tigers	66-72
12/05/19	A	Bendigo Braves	80-96
11/05/19	H	Albury-Wodonga Bandits	104-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ballarat

NBL 1 2019

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWW	88%
Home	LWWWW	83%
Away	WWLWW	90%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	16	6	10
Win %	88%	83%	90%
Points / game	91.4	91.3	91.5
Allowed / game	76.2	79.7	74.1
Point differential	+15.2	+11.7	+17.4
Avg total	167.6	171.0	165.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	50%	50%	50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	0% (1)	100% (2)
Overtime %	6%	17%	0%

Geelong

NBL 1 2019

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWW	65%
Home	WWWLW	67%
Away	LLWWW	62%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	17	9	8
Win %	65%	67%	62%
Points / game	81.9	82.8	80.9
Allowed / game	78.6	80.6	76.5
Point differential	+3.2	+2.2	+4.4
Avg total	160.5	163.3	157.4
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	29%	22%	38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (6)	75% (4)	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Ballarat	16	14	2	88%	91.4	76.2	+15.2
2	Nunawading	17	12	5	71%	92.4	84.9	+7.4
3	Geelong	17	11	6	65%	81.9	78.6	+3.2
4	Frankston	16	10	6	62%	92.2	89.1	+3.1
5	Kilsyth	15	9	6	60%	88.6	84.0	+4.6
6	Melbourne Tigers	16	9	7	56%	86.1	84.3	+1.8
7	Waverley	15	8	7	53%	88.1	90.4	-2.3
8	Dandenong	16	8	8	50%	89.8	87.2	+2.6
9	Bendigo Braves	16	8	8	50%	85.0	83.1	+1.9
10	Hobart Huskies	15	7	8	47%	87.1	89.3	-2.1
11	Knox	16	7	9	44%	81.6	82.4	-0.8
12	NW Tasmania	16	7	9	44%	84.2	86.5	-2.2
13	Diamond Valley	17	7	10	41%	85.6	88.6	-3.0
14	BA CoE	17	7	10	41%	82.1	85.5	-3.4
15	Eltham	16	6	10	38%	86.7	89.4	-2.7
16	Albury-Wodonga Bandits	16	6	10	38%	92.1	97.3	-5.2
17	Ringwood	17	5	12	29%	90.3	96.0	-5.7
18	Southern Sabres	16	4	12	25%	87.0	99.2	-12.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Ballarat	23	24	20	30	97
Geelong	17	12	19	21	69

← all games of the day

Ballarat vs Geelong Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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