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Benfica vs Geneva Lions Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 16 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Scheduled
Position#9
Record3-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game93.8
Allowed / game87.0
vs
Position#24
Record2-2
FormLWLWW
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game82.8
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 9· Pavilhão Fidelidade
European cup2026
Meetings · Benfica v Geneva Lions
16 Dec 2026
BEN v GLI
upcoming
15 Sep 2026
BEN87
GLI78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Benfica win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Geneva Lions win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BenficaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geneva Lions
#44
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H15/09
Champions League
Vechta
#18
L
88-98
88
98
-10
H17/09
Champions League
Sporting CP
#6
W
84-71
84
71
+13
H03/10
LPB
Bakken Bears
#16
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FC Porto
#1
L
86-93
86
93
-7
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#25
W
96-91
96
91
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#5
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#18
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#9
W
89-72
89
72
+17
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#24
L
90-93
90
93
-3
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-17
20-21
17-17
25-23
21-28
30-21
22-19
15-30
19-19
19-22
19-13
27-17
19-16
19-20
27-14
26-31
26-16
19-24
27-32
14-21
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
172.8Avg total
90.1Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.887.0180.8+6.875%
Season at home (2)97.087.0184.0+10.0100%
Season away (2)90.587.0177.5+3.550%
Last 10 (10)90.182.7172.8+7.470%
Last 5 (5)93.081.2174.2+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)90.591.8182.2-1.225%
vs Weaker (25)92.478.3170.7+14.080%
This opponent (Geneva Lions) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geneva LionsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sdent BBC Nyon
#4
W
86-69
86
69
+17
H26/09
SB League
Zurich
#10
W
109-46
109
46
+63
A29/09
SB League
Fribourg Olympic
#2
W
71-64
71
64
+7
H03/10
SB League
Absheron Lions
#42
W
105-83
105
83
+22
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lausanne Basket
#5
W
94-65
94
65
+29
A10/10
SB League
Bakken Bears
#16
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Neuchatel
#6
W
91-41
91
41
+50
A17/10
SB League
Denizli Basket
#25
L
76-80
76
80
-4
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lugano Tigers
#8
W
92-74
92
74
+18
H24/10
SB League
Benfica
#9
W
93-90
93
90
+3
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-13
17-20
20-14
25-22
18-12
34-12
23-15
34-7
10-25
24-15
14-13
23-11
25-16
24-20
30-23
26-24
19-15
24-16
21-18
30-16
20-27
22-10
12-26
19-15
19-11
27-10
22-6
23-14
24-19
15-23
17-15
20-23
24-23
24-21
22-8
22-22
28-33
22-22
19-14
24-21
158.0Avg total
89.0Scored
69.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)86.882.8169.5+4.050%
Season at home (3)80.782.7163.3-2.033%
Season away (1)105.083.0188.0+22.0100%
Last 10 (10)89.069.0158.0+20.080%
Last 5 (5)85.072.6157.6+12.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.485.6163.0-8.220%
vs Similar ◀ (3)80.782.7163.3-2.033%
vs Weaker (21)93.870.4164.2+23.490%
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: +4.6+4.6Q3: +4.8+4.8Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +7.1+7.1
BenficaGeneva Lions
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geneva Lions
#44
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H15/09
Champions League
Vechta
#18
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H17/09
Champions League
Sporting CP
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H03/10
LPB
Bakken Bears
#16
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FC Porto
#1
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#25
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#5
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#18
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#9
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#24
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
88.4Avg total
45.8Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.640.587.1+6.170%-
Last 30 at home (17)48.438.887.2+9.582%-
Last 30 away (13)44.342.686.9+1.754%-
Last 10 (10)45.842.688.4+3.280%-
Last 5 (5)48.244.492.6+3.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (4)49.546.295.8+3.2100%-
vs Weaker (25)46.239.685.8+6.664%-
This opponent (Geneva Lions) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geneva LionsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sdent BBC Nyon
#4
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H26/09
SB League
Zurich
#10
W
52-24
52
24
+28
A29/09
SB League
Fribourg Olympic
#2
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H03/10
SB League
Absheron Lions
#42
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A07/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lausanne Basket
#5
W
43-31
43
31
+12
A10/10
SB League
Bakken Bears
#16
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Neuchatel
#6
W
46-21
46
21
+25
A17/10
SB League
Denizli Basket
#25
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lugano Tigers
#8
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H24/10
SB League
Benfica
#9
L
50-55
50
55
-5
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
80.7Avg total
44.4Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.739.084.7+6.870%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.140.085.1+5.160%-
Last 30 away (15)46.337.984.3+8.480%-
Last 10 (10)44.436.380.7+8.170%-
Last 5 (5)45.039.884.8+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)43.643.286.8+0.460%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)43.744.788.3-1.033%-
vs Weaker (21)46.936.983.8+10.081%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.124.5
53.1%
53.4%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.87.1
31.1%
32.5%21.3
🏀 Free throws26.019.8
76.2%
72.8%19.8
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Geneva Lionstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Geneva Lions: 87.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.8 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.520.2
51.1%
53.4%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.5
36.2%
32.5%25.5
🏀 Free throws27.421.8
79.6%
72.8%21.8
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Benfica
LWWWWLWWLW
Geneva Lions
WWLWLWWWWW
#9
League position
#24
+8.2
Net rating
+22.7
96.8
Offensive rating
100.8
88.6
Defensive rating
78.2
51.0%
Effective FG%
52.3%
46.2%
Opp. effective FG%
45.8%
13.9%
Turnover %
13.6%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.43
31.1%
3-point %
36.2%
54.1%
Assist %
55.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence96.8 · 100.8Defence88.6 · 78.2Shooting51.0% · 52.3%3-point %31.1% · 36.2%Ball care13.9% · 13.6%Free throws0.38 · 0.43Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Benfica   ■ Geneva Lions
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Benfica wins
1
Geneva Lions wins
DateGameScore
28/10/26Geneva Lions v Benfica93-90
15/09/26Benfica v Geneva Lions87-78
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91
11/10/26AFC Porto86-93
07/10/26ABakken Bears91-81
03/10/26HSporting CP84-71
17/09/26HVechta88-98
15/09/26HGeneva Lions87-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26HBenfica93-90
24/10/26HLugano Tigers92-74
21/10/26HDenizli Basket76-80
17/10/26ANeuchatel91-41
14/10/26HBakken Bears73-78
10/10/26ALausanne Basket94-65
07/10/26AAbsheron Lions105-83
03/10/26HFribourg Olympic71-64
29/09/26AZurich109-46
26/09/26HSdent BBC Nyon86-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Benfica
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game93.897.090.5
Allowed / game87.087.087.0
Point differential+6.8+10.0+3.5
Avg total180.8184.0177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Geneva Lions
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLW50%
HomeLLW33%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%33%100%
Points / game86.880.7105.0
Allowed / game82.882.783.0
Point differential+4.0-2.0+22.0
Avg total169.5163.3188.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)33% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Esenler Erokspor440100%93.872.5+21.2
2 Trier440100%95.575.5+20.0
3 Mykonos440100%83.873.8+10.0
4 Basquet Girona43175%91.575.0+16.5
5 Nancy43175%84.069.0+15.0
6 Chalon/Saone43175%86.872.2+14.5
7 Korfez Basket43175%87.876.2+11.5
8 CSM Oradea43175%88.278.2+10.0
9 Benfica43175%93.887.0+6.8
10 Trepca43175%83.877.5+6.2
11 Sporting CP43175%78.572.5+6.0
12 Szczecin43175%87.282.2+5.0
13 Keravnos43175%81.577.2+4.2
14 AEK Larnaca43175%84.280.2+4.0
15 Dziki Warszawa43175%86.283.0+3.2
16 Bakken Bears43175%83.282.5+0.8
17 Dinamo Bucharest63350%87.577.7+9.8
18 BC Prievidza63350%89.882.7+7.2
19 VEF Riga42250%97.090.0+7.0
20 Kolossos Rhodes42250%73.867.2+6.5
21 Iraklis42250%84.879.8+5.0
22 Promitheas42250%86.882.0+4.8
23 Wurzburg42250%79.074.5+4.5
24 Geneva Lions42250%86.882.8+4.0
25 Denizli Basket42250%85.083.8+1.2
26 BC Kalev/Cramo42250%82.883.2-0.5
27 Lok. Plovdiv42250%85.286.0-0.8
28 Oostende42250%78.280.0-1.8
29 Levice42250%75.077.0-2.0
30 Split42250%77.882.0-4.2
31 Szolnoki Olaj42250%80.585.2-4.8
32 Tartu Ulikool42250%91.298.5-7.2
33 Zielona Gora42250%77.285.0-7.8
34 Parnu62433%72.877.3-4.5
35 Bashkimi31233%76.386.3-10.0
36 Manchester Basketball31233%77.392.0-14.7
37 Gence31233%64.779.7-15.0
38 Opava41325%82.582.0+0.5
39 Vienna Basket41325%78.282.5-4.2
40 Valmiera Glass Via41325%80.287.2-7.0
41 SCM Craiova41325%85.294.5-9.2
42 Absheron Lions41325%87.297.5-10.2
43 Fribourg Olympic41325%73.285.2-12.0
44 Nitra Blue Wings41325%75.288.8-13.5
45 Neftchi IK61517%74.884.2-9.3
46 MZT Skopje4040%73.282.8-9.5
47 Rilski Sportist3030%74.392.0-17.7
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Batumi4040%66.894.0-27.2
50 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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