PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Benfica vs Geneva Lions Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 16 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Scheduled
Position#6
Record5-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game94.3
Allowed / game83.8
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Position#17
Record4-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game84.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 9· Pavilhão Fidelidade
European cup2026
Meetings · Benfica v Geneva Lions
16 Dec 2026
BEN v GLI
upcoming
15 Sep 2026
BEN87
GLI78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Benfica win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Geneva Lions win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BenficaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBenfica
Date
Competition
Denizli Basket
#31
W
96-91
96
91
+5
87avg 89
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#4
W
92-67
92
67
+25
90avg 89
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
98-83
98
83
+15
93avg 89
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#8
W
89-72
89
72
+17
87avg 89
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
L
90-93
90
93
-3
80avg 89
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
86-72
86
72
+14
83avg 89
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
97-76
97
76
+21
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
112-78
112
78
+34
no box
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
94-79
94
79
+15
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
CAB Madeira
#10
W
69-62
69
62
+7
no box
H14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
16-19
27-19
14-16
29-18
25-18
30-21
24-17
18-20
23-20
25-14
27-28
37-16
26-20
24-22
24-24
20-13
11-18
29-13
12-14
17-17
169.6Avg total
92.3Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)94.383.8178.2+10.583%
Season at home (4)96.282.2178.5+14.0100%
Season away (2)90.587.0177.5+3.550%
Last 10 (10)92.377.3169.6+15.090%
Last 5 (5)91.673.4165.0+18.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)93.090.5183.5+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)90.777.4168.1+13.378%
This opponent (Geneva Lions) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geneva LionsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLions
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#22
L
73-78
73
78
-5
61avg 83
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Neuchatel
#7
W
91-41
91
41
+50
79avg 83
A17/10
SB League
Denizli Basket
#31
L
76-80
76
80
-4
64avg 83
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lugano Tigers
#6
W
92-74
92
74
+18
83avg 83
H24/10
SB League
Benfica
#6
W
93-90
93
90
+3
85avg 83
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Regio Basel
#9
W
117-55
117
55
+62
123avg 83
A01/11
SB League
BC Prievidza
#23
W
97-96
97
96
+1
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
SAM Massagno
#3
W
103-76
103
76
+27
no box
H07/11
SB League
Absheron Lions
#45
W
85-77
85
77
+8
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
BBC Monthey
#8
W
76-57
76
57
+19
no box
H14/11
SB League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-27
22-10
12-26
19-15
19-11
27-10
22-6
23-14
24-19
15-23
17-15
20-23
24-23
24-21
22-8
22-22
28-33
22-22
19-14
24-21
30-18
27-18
30-8
30-11
27-25
17-24
27-27
26-20
20-19
29-21
27-17
27-19
20-22
23-16
19-16
23-23
16-15
16-26
20-6
24-10
162.7Avg total
90.3Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.284.0172.2+4.267%
Season at home (5)84.884.2169.0+0.660%
Season away (1)105.083.0188.0+22.0100%
Last 10 (10)90.372.4162.7+17.980%
Last 5 (5)95.672.2167.8+23.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)80.086.3166.3-6.333%
vs Similar (1)97.096.0193.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker (22)89.470.2159.6+19.282%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +3.1+3.1Q3: +7.2+7.2Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: +6.0+6.0
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +3.1+3.1Q3: +7.2+7.2Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: +6.0+6.0
BenficaGeneva Lions
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denizli Basket
#31
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#4
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#8
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
55-39
55
39
+16
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
CAB Madeira
#10
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H14/11
LPB
88.3Avg total
47.7Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.439.185.6+7.380%-
Last 30 at home (18)48.137.785.8+10.489%-
Last 30 away (12)43.941.285.2+2.767%-
Last 10 (10)47.740.688.3+7.190%-
Last 5 (5)47.236.884.0+10.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)49.047.596.5+1.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)46.338.684.9+7.778%-
This opponent (Geneva Lions) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geneva LionsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#22
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Neuchatel
#7
W
46-21
46
21
+25
A17/10
SB League
Denizli Basket
#31
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lugano Tigers
#6
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H24/10
SB League
Benfica
#6
L
50-55
50
55
-5
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Regio Basel
#9
W
57-36
57
36
+21
A01/11
SB League
BC Prievidza
#23
L
44-49
44
49
-5
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
SAM Massagno
#3
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H07/11
SB League
Absheron Lions
#45
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
BBC Monthey
#8
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H14/11
SB League
85.3Avg total
45.0Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.939.583.4+4.463%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.841.284.1+1.653%-
Last 30 away (13)45.337.282.5+8.277%-
Last 10 (10)45.040.385.3+4.760%-
Last 5 (5)45.040.885.8+4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)44.745.289.8-0.550%-
vs Similar (1)44.049.093.0-5.00%-
vs Weaker (22)44.037.281.2+6.773%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.025.4
52.9%
53.4%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.17.0
31.7%
32.5%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.318.2
74.9%
72.8%18.2
They take 70.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Geneva Lionstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Geneva Lions: 90.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.621.2
52.2%
53.4%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.49.2
39.3%
32.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws25.820.8
80.6%
72.8%20.8
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Benfica
WWWWWLWWWW
Geneva Lions
WWWWWWWLWL
#6
League position
#17
+8.7
Net rating
+28.0
96.7
Offensive rating
105.2
88.0
Defensive rating
77.2
51.2%
Effective FG%
54.7%
46.5%
Opp. effective FG%
46.2%
13.4%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.40
31.7%
3-point %
39.3%
54.0%
Assist %
55.6%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence96.7 · 105.2Defence88.0 · 77.2Shooting51.2% · 54.7%3-point %31.7% · 39.3%Ball care13.4% · 12.9%Free throws0.35 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Benfica   ■ Geneva Lions
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Benfica wins
1
Geneva Lions wins
DateGameScore
28/10/26Geneva Lions v Benfica93-90
15/09/26Benfica v Geneva Lions87-78
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HCAB Madeira69-62
11/11/26HBakken Bears94-79
07/11/26HEsgueira112-78
04/11/26HAbsheron Lions97-76
31/10/26APortimonense86-72
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HBBC Monthey76-57
11/11/26HAbsheron Lions85-77
07/11/26HSAM Massagno103-76
04/11/26HBC Prievidza97-96
01/11/26ARegio Basel117-55
28/10/26HBenfica93-90
24/10/26HLugano Tigers92-74
21/10/26HDenizli Basket76-80
17/10/26ANeuchatel91-41
14/10/26HBakken Bears73-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Benfica
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %83%100%50%
Points / game94.396.290.5
Allowed / game83.882.287.0
Point differential+10.5+14.0+3.5
Avg total178.2178.5177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%75%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Geneva Lions
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW67%
HomeLLWWW60%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games651
Win %67%60%100%
Points / game88.284.8105.0
Allowed / game84.084.283.0
Point differential+4.2+0.6+22.0
Avg total172.2169.0188.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (4)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.