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Besiktas vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 87-93
Projected total 180.2
Scheduled
Position#13
Record5-6
FormWWLLW
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game90.9
Besiktas
Vs
28%
72%
■ BES 28%■ MAD 72%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.7/10
Below normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Real Madrid
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
EuropeEuroleagueRound 12· TBF Development Center - Main court
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Besiktas will host Real Madrid on 18 November 2026 in the EuroLeague, with the model favouring the Spanish side as the favourite and predicting a 72% chance of a win for Real Madrid. Besiktas, 4-6 this season, averages 87.7 points scored and 90.9 points allowed, while Real Madrid, 7-4, averages 98.5 points scored and 90.1 points allowed, placing them 5th in the league. Besiktas has struggled at home, 1-4 with 82.2 points per game and 88.4 points allowed, and their last five games included a narrow 83-84 loss to Karsiyaka, a 67-83 defeat by Zalgiris Kaunas, and a 93-76 win over Cayirova. Real Madrid's recent five games show a 4-1 record, highlighted by a 105-84 victory over Crvena zvezda and a 90-71 win over Murcia, but a 112-115 loss to Panathinaikos. The model projects a 87-93 scoreline, 180.2 total points, and a 42% probability that Besiktas will cover the 4.5 point spread. The over on the 175.5 total has a 60% chance, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. Besiktas' home record of 1-4 suggests a challenging night for the hosts.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besiktas win
28.1%fair 3.56
Best odds2.60
Implied37.8%
Edge-9.7pp
Real Madrid win
71.9%fair 1.39
Best odds1.55
Implied62.2%
Edge+9.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BesiktasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBesiktas
Date
Competition
Bayern
#18
W
95-87
95
87
+8
90avg 81
H16/10
Euroleague
Galatasaray
#7
W
83-80
83
80
+3
78avg 81
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
80-89
80
89
-9
69avg 81
A22/10
Euroleague
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
96-100
96
100
-4
88avg 81
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Olympiacos
#2
L
73-81
73
81
-8
66avg 81
H28/10
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#16
W
103-101
103
101
+2
93avg 81
A30/10
Euroleague
Cayirova
#14
W
93-76
93
76
+17
no box
H02/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
67-83
67
83
-16
no box
H06/11
Euroleague
Karsiyaka
#10
L
83-84
83
84
-1
no box
A09/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
95-91
95
91
+4
no box
A13/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-17
27-18
16-23
26-29
19-22
25-17
20-21
19-20
17-29
19-28
24-11
20-21
24-31
26-21
21-19
25-29
23-25
13-17
22-19
15-20
24-24
23-30
23-20
33-27
27-16
19-22
28-18
19-20
17-20
14-25
13-17
23-21
22-17
16-23
21-12
24-32
25-28
18-24
22-16
30-23
174.0Avg total
86.8Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)88.490.9179.3-2.545%
Season at home (5)82.288.4170.6-6.220%
Season away (6)93.593.0186.5+0.567%
Last 10 (10)86.887.2174.0-0.450%
Last 5 (5)88.287.0175.2+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)80.190.9171.0-10.811%
vs Similar (15)83.784.9168.6-1.353%
vs Weaker (6)91.782.2173.8+9.583%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 90
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 90
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 90
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#16
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 90
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 90
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 90
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 90
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Besiktas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1351%1401%1453%1505%1556%1609%16511%17012%17512%18011%1859%1907%1955%2003%2052%2101%2151%2200%225
1%1403%1506%16011%17012%1809%1905%2002%2101%220
Pythia expects about 180 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 180-184 (12%). The market's main line is 175.5.
Over/Under 170.5
Over 170.5
71.7%
@ 1.46+9.5pp
Under 170.5
28.3%
@ 2.40-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 175.5 · main line
Over 175.5
60.4%
@ 1.93+10.4pp
Under 175.5
39.6%
@ 1.93-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 180.5
Over 180.5
48.3%
@ 2.40+10.5pp
Under 180.5
51.7%
@ 1.46-10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46

📊 3. Team Totals

Besiktas total 81.5
Over 81.5
69.2%
Under 81.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besiktas total 85.5 · main line
Over 85.5
54.4%
@ 1.81+4.4pp
Under 85.5
45.6%
@ 1.81-4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.81
Besiktas total 89.5
Over 89.5
39.3%
Under 89.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid total 85.5
Over 85.5
78.4%
Under 85.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
64.9%
@ 1.75+13.4pp
Under 89.5
35.1%
@ 1.86-13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.86
Real Madrid total 93.5
Over 93.5
49.2%
Under 93.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%11%0%-391%-361%-332%-303%-274%-245%-217%-188%-159%-1210%-911%-69%-35%+07%+36%+64%+93%+122%+151%+181%+211%+24
1%-362%-304%-247%-189%-1211%-65%+06%+63%+121%+181%+24
Margin from Besiktas's side (positive = Besiktas win). Pythia's expected margin is -6.4; Besiktas win by 1+ in 25% of simulations.
Spread Besiktas +1.5
BES +1.5
30.6%
@ 2.21-10.4pp
MAD -1.5
69.4%
@ 1.54+10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
BES
1xBet
2.21
MAD
1xBet
1.54
Spread Besiktas +4.5 · main line
BES +4.5
41.8%
@ 1.93-8.2pp
MAD -4.5
58.2%
@ 1.93+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BES
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.83
MAD
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Spread Besiktas +7.5
BES +7.5
53.3%
@ 1.54-5.6pp
MAD -7.5
46.7%
@ 2.21+5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BES
1xBet
1.54
MAD
1xBet
2.21

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +5.9+5.9
BesiktasReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BesiktasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bayern
#18
W
53-35
53
35
+18
H16/10
Euroleague
Galatasaray
#7
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
36-57
36
57
-21
A22/10
Euroleague
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
50-52
50
52
-2
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Olympiacos
#2
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/10
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#16
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A30/10
Euroleague
Cayirova
#14
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H02/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
31-45
31
45
-14
H06/11
Euroleague
Karsiyaka
#10
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A09/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
L
43-52
43
52
-9
A13/11
Euroleague
87.8Avg total
42.4Scored
45.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 87.5
Last 30 (30)42.343.986.2-1.540%40%
Last 30 at home (15)43.041.484.4+1.653%40%
Last 30 away (15)41.746.388.0-4.727%40%
Last 10 (10)42.445.487.8-3.030%50%
Last 5 (5)41.045.886.8-4.820%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)39.447.186.6-7.711%33%
vs Similar (15)41.843.184.9-1.347%33%
vs Weaker (6)48.040.888.8+7.267%67%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#16
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 87.5
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%77%
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%80%
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%73%
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%80%
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%71%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%78%
This opponent (Besiktas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Besiktas +2.5 · main line
BES +2.5
48.1%
@ 1.83-1.9pp
MAD -2.5
51.9%
@ 1.83+1.9pp
1st half Over/Under 87.5 · main line
Over
61.3%
@ 1.80+10.4pp
Under
38.7%
@ 1.86-10.4pp
Besiktas 1st half total 42.5 · main line
Over
57.0%
@ 1.81+6.5pp
Under
43.0%
@ 1.85-6.5pp
Real Madrid 1st half total 45.5 · main line
Over
56.6%
@ 1.88+8.0pp
Under
43.4%
@ 1.78-8.0pp
1st half Spread Besiktas +1.5
BES +1.5
43.8%
@ 1.92-2.9pp
MAD -1.5
56.2%
@ 1.68+2.9pp
1st half Spread Besiktas +3.5
BES +3.5
52.4%
@ 1.72-1.4pp
MAD -3.5
47.6%
@ 2.00+1.4pp
1st half Over/Under 85.5
Over
68.4%
@ 1.63+11.7pp
Under
31.6%
@ 2.13-11.7pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
BES
35.4%
@ 2.43-1.6pp
Draw
4.3%
@ 14.10-2.1pp
MAD
60.3%
@ 1.59+3.7pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
🔒 1 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Real Madrid over 87.572.1%1.65
1xBet
1.65		----+14.8pp
Real Madrid +1.574.2%1.43
1xBet
1.43		----+9.8pp
Real Madrid win71.9%1.51
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50		+9.7pp
Over 170.571.7%1.46
1xBet
1.46		----+9.5pp
Real Madrid +2.577.5%1.33
1xBet
1.33		----+7.8pp
🔒 Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Besiktastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Besiktas: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.7
54.8%
55.2%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.810.8
38.8%
35.7%32.4
🏀 Free throws15.411.9
77.3%
77.1%11.9
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Besiktas
WLLWWLLLWW
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#13
League position
#5
-2.4
Net rating
+23.0
102.7
Offensive rating
114.6
105.1
Defensive rating
91.6
56.2%
Effective FG%
60.2%
57.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
14.1%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.33
38.8%
3-point %
41.9%
60.6%
Assist %
62.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 114.6Defence105.1 · 91.6Shooting56.2% · 60.2%3-point %38.8% · 41.9%Ball care14.1% · 12.7%Free throws0.23 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Besiktas   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Besiktas wins
0
Real Madrid wins
No previous meetings.
Besiktaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26ALyon-Villeurbanne95-91
09/11/26AKarsiyaka83-84
06/11/26HZalgiris Kaunas67-83
02/11/26HCayirova93-76
30/10/26AVirtus Bologna103-101
28/10/26HOlympiacos73-81
24/10/26ABahcesehir Kol.96-100
22/10/26AAnadolu Efes80-89
18/10/26HGalatasaray83-80
16/10/26HBayern95-87
Real Madridlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Besiktas
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW45%
HomeLLWLL20%
AwayWLLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %45%20%67%
Points / game88.482.293.5
Allowed / game90.988.493.0
Point differential-2.5-6.2+0.5
Avg total179.3170.6186.5
Over 175.573%60%83%
Win by 10+9%0%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over 175.573%60%83%
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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