Real Madrid vs Murcia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 18:00

Projected 101-89

Projected total 189.3

Final 90-71

22-20 25-19 16-16 27-16

Position#1

Record6-0

FormWWWWL

Points / game109.0

Allowed / game87.7

Real Madrid 🏆

85%

15%

■ MAD 85%■ MUR 15%

Pythia win probability

Murcia

Position#11

Record3-3

FormWLWLW

Points / game93.3

Allowed / game93.8

ACBRound 7· Movistar Arena

Domestic2026-27

Meetings · Real Madrid v Murcia

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Real Madrid host Murcia on 8 November 2026 in the Liga ACB, and the Pythia model names the Spanish giants as the clear favourite, rating them 86% to win, a reflection of their flawless 6-0 season record, 109.0 points per game and 87.7 allowed, placing them first in the league, while Murcia sit tenth with a 3-3 record, 93.3 points per game and 93.8 allowed. Madrid's home form is impeccable, 4-0 at home with 104.5 points scored and 83.2 allowed, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 90-79 win over San Pablo Burgos, a 95-76 victory over Fenerbahce and a narrow 112-115 loss to Panathinaikos at home; Murcia's road record is 0-2, 85.0 points scored and 100.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, highlighted by a 125-98 win over Forca Lleida. In their 10 meetings, Madrid has won nine times, most recently defeating Murcia 131-123 on 3 May 2026. Pythia projects a 100-87 score, 187.4 total points, and gives Madrid a 54% chance to cover the -11.5 line and a 54% chance the game will go over the 185.5 total, with a 3% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon

85.1%fair 1.17

Best odds1.21

Implied82.0%

Edge+3.1pp

Murcia winLost

14.9%fair 6.72

Best odds5.90

Implied18.0%

Edge-3.1pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real Madrid Spain

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormMadrid

Date

Competition

Manresa

#18

120-83

120

+37

122avg 89

H11/10

ACB

Olimpia Milano

#19

98-89

95avg 89

A13/10

Euroleague

Lyon-Villeurbanne

#16

111-92

111

+19

109avg 89

H15/10

Euroleague

Bilbao

119-84

119

+35

120avg 89

H18/10

ACB

Maccabi Tel Aviv

#17

113-99

113

+14

108avg 89

A22/10

Euroleague

Forca Lleida

#17

122-86

122

+36

131avg 89

A25/10

ACB

Baskonia

#20

104-86

104

+18

102avg 89

A27/10

Euroleague

Fenerbahce

95-76

+19

90avg 89

H29/10

Euroleague

San Pablo Burgos

#15

90-79

+11

82avg 89

H01/11

ACB

Panathinaikos

112-115 OT

112

115

-3

no box

H04/11

Euroleague

34-22

28-16

24-18

34-27

21-25

32-15

31-27

14-22

27-25

34-23

16-23

34-21

36-13

26-22

27-22

30-27

23-30

28-22

30-21

32-26

31-21

23-19

27-23

41-23

30-19

26-27

26-23

22-17

22-24

25-18

23-13

25-21

14-17

25-14

25-22

26-26

18-24

30-27

25-23

28-27

197.3Avg total

108.4Scored

88.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	109.0	87.7	196.7	+21.3	100%
Season at home (4)	104.5	83.2	187.8	+21.2	100%
Season away (2)	118.0	96.5	214.5	+21.5	100%
Last 10 (10)	108.4	88.9	197.3	+19.5	90%
Last 5 (5)	104.6	88.4	193.0	+16.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	96.8	92.5	189.2	+4.2	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	99.0	89.9	188.9	+9.0	59%

This opponent (Murcia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Murcia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormMurcia

Date

Competition

Barcelona

76-100

100

-24

60avg 81

H06/06

ACB

Basquet Girona

77-84

-7

64avg 81

A27/09

ACB

Barcelona

100-94

100

91avg 81

H04/10

ACB

Varese

#37

85-58

+27

89avg 81

H07/10

Champions League

Tenerife

77-90

-13

64avg 81

H11/10

ACB

Bamberg

#53

86-67

+19

80avg 81

A14/10

Champions League

Valencia

93-116

116

-23

78avg 81

A18/10

ACB

Leyma Coruna

#13

88-81

74avg 81

H24/10

ACB

Peristeri

72-80

-8

60avg 81

H27/10

Champions League

Forca Lleida

#17

125-98

125

+27

117avg 81

H31/10

ACB

17-27

19-25

25-27

15-21

16-22

17-14

19-16

25-32

18-18

28-28

24-27

30-21

16-8

23-14

27-20

19-16

13-16

20-28

24-22

20-24

15-17

19-15

32-23

20-12

14-25

22-33

24-28

33-30

18-17

19-23

26-18

25-23

15-16

17-17

18-27

22-20

34-21

26-19

25-25

40-33

174.7Avg total

87.9Scored

86.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	93.3	93.8	187.2	-0.5	50%
Season at home (4)	97.5	90.8	188.2	+6.8	75%
Season away (2)	85.0	100.0	185.0	-15.0	0%
Last 10 (10)	87.9	86.8	174.7	+1.1	50%
Last 5 (5)	92.8	88.4	181.2	+4.4	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	88.5	102.5	191.0	-14.0	25%
vs Similar (7)	86.1	92.4	178.6	-6.3	29%
vs Weaker (19)	91.3	80.4	171.6	+10.9	89%

This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

Pythia expects about 189 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 185-189 (12%). The market's main line is 187.5.

Over/Under 182.5Actual: Under 182.5

Over 182.5

65.4%

@ 1.62+5.4pp

Under 182.5

34.6%

@ 2.40-5.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.62

Marathon Be

1.53

Betano

1.53

Bet365

1.52

BetVictor

1.50

Under

Bet365

2.40

BetVictor

2.38

Betano

2.30

Marathon Be

2.14

1xBet

2.14

Over/Under 187.5 · main lineActual: Under 187.5

Over 187.5

53.7%

@ 1.93+3.0pp

Under 187.5

46.3%

@ 1.94-3.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.93

1xBet

1.92

Marathon Be

1.90

Pinnacle

1.89

Bet365

1.86

Under

Pinnacle

1.94

1xBet

1.92

Marathon Be

1.90

Bet365

1.86

WilliamHill

1.85

Over/Under 192.5Actual: Under 192.5

Over 192.5

41.6%

@ 2.45+3.1pp

Under 192.5

58.4%

@ 1.54-3.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.45

BetVictor

2.40

Bet365

2.35

Under

Bet365

1.54

Marathon Be

1.50

BetVictor

1.50

Betano

1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Real Madrid total 94.5Actual: Real Madrid under 94.5

Over 94.5

72.9%

@ 1.37+6.9pp

Under 94.5

27.1%

@ 2.65-6.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.37

Under

Betano

2.65

Real Madrid total 98.5 · main lineActual: Real Madrid under 98.5

Over 98.5

58.5%

@ 1.85+7.6pp

Under 98.5

41.5%

@ 1.91-7.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.81

1xBet

1.77

Betano

1.75

Under

Marathon Be

1.91

Betano

1.91

BetVictor

1.91

1xBet

1.84

Bet365

1.83

Real Madrid total 102.5Actual: Real Madrid under 102.5

Over 102.5

42.9%

@ 2.40+5.2pp

Under 102.5

57.1%

@ 1.45-5.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.40

Under

Betano

1.45

Murcia total 83.5Actual: Murcia under 83.5

Over 83.5

68.6%

@ 1.38+2.1pp

Under 83.5

31.4%

@ 2.80-2.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.38

Betano

1.37

Under

Bet365

2.80

Betano

2.67

Murcia total 87.5 · main lineActual: Murcia under 87.5

Over 87.5

53.5%

@ 1.83+1.5pp

Under 87.5

46.5%

@ 1.96-1.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.78

Marathon Be

1.75

1xBet

1.70

Under

Marathon Be

1.96

BetVictor

1.95

1xBet

1.93

Betano

1.91

Bet365

1.83

Murcia total 91.5Actual: Murcia under 91.5

Over 91.5

38.0%

@ 2.42-1.2pp

Under 91.5

62.0%

@ 1.57+1.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.42

Bet365

2.25

Under

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.45

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

Margin from Real Madrid's side (positive = Real Madrid win). Pythia's expected margin is +12.1; Real Madrid win by 1+ in 78% of simulations.

Spread Real Madrid -13.5Actual: Real Madrid -13.5

MAD -13.5

44.9%

@ 2.33+4.6pp

MUR +13.5

55.1%

@ 1.60-4.6pp

Best 5 market prices

MAD

Marathon Be

2.33

1xBet

2.33

Bet365

2.30

BetVictor

2.30

Betano

2.27

MUR

Betano

1.60

Bet365

1.55

BetVictor

1.55

Marathon Be

1.52

1xBet

1.52

Spread Real Madrid -10.5 · main lineActual: Real Madrid -10.5

MAD -10.5

55.5%

@ 1.96+6.4pp

MUR +10.5

44.5%

@ 1.93-6.4pp

Best 5 market prices

MAD

1xBet

1.96

Pinnacle

1.95

Marathon Be

1.94

SBO

1.91

Bet365

1.86

MUR

Betano

1.93

1xBet

1.88

Pinnacle

1.88

Marathon Be

1.86

Bet365

1.86

Spread Real Madrid -7.5Actual: Real Madrid -7.5

MAD -7.5

65.9%

@ 1.59+6.0pp

MUR +7.5

34.1%

@ 2.47-6.0pp

Best 5 market prices

MAD

Pinnacle

1.59

Marathon Be

1.58

1xBet

1.58

Bet365

1.55

BetVictor

1.53

MUR

Betano

2.47

BetVictor

2.38

Pinnacle

2.37

Bet365

2.30

Marathon Be

2.20

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Real MadridMurcia

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	23.9	22.3	46.2	+1.6	57%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	24.5	21.1	45.5	+3.4	73%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	23.3	23.5	46.9	-0.2	40%	53%
Last 10 (10)	25.6	22.0	47.6	+3.6	50%	80%
Last 5 (5)	23.0	21.0	44.0	+2.0	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	24.0	23.2	47.2	+0.8	62%	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	23.9	22.0	45.8	+1.9	55%	64%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	19.9	20.0	39.9	-0.1	40%	30%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.3	19.6	39.9	+0.7	35%	35%
Last 30 away (13)	19.4	20.5	39.8	-1.1	46%	23%
Last 10 (10)	17.6	18.7	36.3	-1.1	30%	10%
Last 5 (5)	19.2	19.2	38.4	+0.0	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	16.0	22.2	38.2	-6.2	0%	25%
vs Similar (7)	19.1	20.4	39.6	-1.3	43%	14%
vs Weaker (19)	21.0	19.3	40.3	+1.7	47%	37%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	24.8	22.4	47.3	+2.4	57%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	24.5	22.5	47.1	+2.0	53%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	25.1	22.3	47.5	+2.8	60%	60%
Last 10 (10)	27.7	20.3	48.0	+7.4	90%	60%
Last 5 (5)	25.8	21.0	46.8	+4.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	22.5	23.0	45.5	-0.5	50%	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	25.7	22.2	47.9	+3.5	59%	64%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	22.2	21.0	43.2	+1.1	53%	40%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.2	20.8	43.1	+1.4	59%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	22.1	21.3	43.4	+0.8	46%	31%
Last 10 (10)	21.0	21.6	42.6	-0.6	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.6	21.4	42.0	-0.8	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	22.5	28.5	51.0	-6.0	0%	75%
vs Similar (7)	21.3	22.0	43.3	-0.7	43%	29%
vs Weaker (19)	22.4	19.1	41.5	+3.3	68%	37%

Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Manresa

#18

62-38

+24

H11/10

ACB

Olimpia Milano

#19

53-40

+13

A13/10

Euroleague

Lyon-Villeurbanne

#16

61-48

+13

H15/10

Euroleague

Bilbao

62-35

+27

H18/10

ACB

Maccabi Tel Aviv

#17

51-52

-1

A22/10

Euroleague

Forca Lleida

#17

54-40

+14

A25/10

ACB

Baskonia

#20

56-46

+10

A27/10

Euroleague

Fenerbahce

47-42

H29/10

Euroleague

San Pablo Burgos

#15

39-31

H01/11

ACB

Panathinaikos

48-51

-3

H04/11

Euroleague

95.6Avg total

53.3Scored

42.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 91.5
Last 30 (30)	48.7	44.7	93.5	+4.0	67%	60%
Last 30 at home (15)	49.0	43.6	92.6	+5.4	67%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	48.5	45.9	94.3	+2.6	67%	67%
Last 10 (10)	53.3	42.3	95.6	+11.0	80%	80%
Last 5 (5)	48.8	42.0	90.8	+6.8	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	46.5	46.2	92.8	+0.2	50%	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	49.5	44.2	93.7	+5.4	73%	68%

This opponent (Murcia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Barcelona

36-52

-16

H06/06

ACB

Basquet Girona

33-36

-3

A27/09

ACB

Barcelona

46-46

H04/10

ACB

Varese

#37

39-22

+17

H07/10

Champions League

Tenerife

33-44

-11

H11/10

ACB

Bamberg

#53

34-32

A14/10

Champions League

Valencia

36-58

-22

A18/10

ACB

Leyma Coruna

#13

37-40

-3

H24/10

ACB

Peristeri

32-33

-1

H27/10

Champions League

Forca Lleida

#17

60-40

+20

H31/10

ACB

78.9Avg total

38.6Scored

40.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 91.5
Last 30 (30)	42.1	41.0	83.1	+1.1	57%	30%
Last 30 at home (17)	42.5	40.4	82.9	+2.1	59%	29%
Last 30 away (13)	41.5	41.8	83.2	-0.3	54%	31%
Last 10 (10)	38.6	40.3	78.9	-1.7	30%	30%
Last 5 (5)	39.8	40.6	80.4	-0.8	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	38.5	50.8	89.2	-12.2	0%	75%
vs Similar (7)	40.4	42.4	82.9	-2.0	43%	14%
vs Weaker (19)	43.4	38.4	81.8	+5.0	74%	26%

This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Real Madrid win

MAD win

75.3%

@ 1.33+0.2pp

MUR win

24.7%

@ 3.85-0.2pp

1st half Spread Real Madrid -6 · main lineActual: Real Madrid -6

MAD -6

51.4%

@ 1.95+2.3pp

MUR +6

48.6%

@ 1.88-2.3pp

1st half Over/Under 91.5 · main lineActual: Under 91.5

Over

61.8%

@ 2.10+12.7pp

Under

38.2%

@ 1.88-12.7pp

Real Madrid 1st half total 47.5 · main lineActual: Real Madrid under 47.5

Over

66.2%

@ 1.80+13.0pp

Under

33.8%

@ 2.20-13.0pp

Murcia 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Murcia under 42.5

Over

59.4%

@ 1.95+10.4pp

Under

40.6%

@ 1.86-10.4pp

1st half: MAD + total 90.5

MAD & over

47.9%

@ 2.60+14.5pp

MAD & under

25.0%

@ 2.65-7.8pp

1st half: Draw + total 90.5

Draw & over

2.2%

@ 29.00-0.8pp

Draw & under

1.1%

@ 29.00-1.9pp

1st half: MUR + total 90.5

MUR & over

15.3%

@ 6.25+1.4pp

MUR & under

8.5%

@ 6.25-5.4pp

1st half Over/Under 90Actual: Under 90

Over

67.6%

@ 1.83+15.0pp

Under

32.4%

@ 2.00-15.0pp

1st half Spread Real Madrid -5Actual: Real Madrid -5

MAD -5

55.6%

@ 1.82+2.1pp

MUR +5

44.4%

@ 2.06-2.1pp

1st half Over/Under 93.5Actual: Under 93.5

Over

54.2%

@ 2.50+13.7pp

Under

45.8%

@ 1.62-13.7pp

1st half Spread Real Madrid -7.5Actual: Real Madrid -7.5

MAD -7.5

45.1%

@ 2.25+1.5pp

MUR +7.5

54.9%

@ 1.72-1.5pp

1st half Over/Under 88.5Actual: Under 88.5

Over

72.1%

@ 1.73+15.0pp

Under

27.9%

@ 2.30-15.0pp

1st half Over/Under 95.5Actual: Under 95.5

Over

46.7%

@ 2.90+14.8pp

Under

53.3%

@ 1.36-14.8pp

1st half Spread Real Madrid -8.5Actual: Murcia +8.5

MAD -8.5

40.9%

@ 2.18-0.9pp

MUR +8.5

59.1%

@ 1.57+0.9pp

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Real Madrid (regulation)

MAD

72.9%

@ 1.36+2.4pp

Draw

3.3%

@ 18.50-1.8pp

MUR

23.8%

@ 4.00-0.6pp

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 48
Last 30 (30)	24.0	21.1	45.1	+2.9	70%	33%
Last 30 at home (15)	23.8	21.9	45.7	+1.9	67%	33%
Last 30 away (15)	24.1	20.3	44.4	+3.9	73%	33%
Last 10 (10)	25.4	21.5	46.9	+3.9	90%	50%
Last 5 (5)	25.2	20.8	46.0	+4.4	100%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	22.6	20.5	43.1	+2.1	62%	25%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	24.5	21.3	45.8	+3.1	73%	36%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 48
Last 30 (30)	23.2	22.2	45.4	+0.9	60%	37%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.4	20.6	43.1	+1.8	65%	24%
Last 30 away (13)	24.2	24.3	48.5	-0.2	54%	54%
Last 10 (10)	24.4	23.3	47.7	+1.1	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	25.0	24.2	49.2	+0.8	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	23.8	28.0	51.8	-4.2	25%	75%
vs Similar (7)	23.1	23.3	46.4	-0.1	43%	43%
vs Weaker (19)	23.1	20.6	43.7	+2.4	74%	26%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 48
Last 30 (30)	24.2	23.7	48.0	+0.5	47%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	25.9	24.5	50.3	+1.4	53%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	22.6	23.0	45.6	-0.4	40%	47%
Last 10 (10)	28.6	23.7	52.3	+4.9	80%	70%
Last 5 (5)	28.4	22.8	51.2	+5.6	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	24.1	22.9	47.0	+1.2	62%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	24.3	24.0	48.3	+0.2	41%	59%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 48
Last 30 (30)	24.2	22.3	46.5	+1.8	73%	40%
Last 30 at home (17)	24.8	21.7	46.5	+3.1	76%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	23.3	23.2	46.5	+0.2	69%	38%
Last 10 (10)	24.9	23.2	48.1	+1.7	70%	40%
Last 5 (5)	28.0	23.6	51.6	+4.4	100%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	26.2	23.8	50.0	+2.5	75%	50%
vs Similar (7)	21.3	24.3	45.6	-3.0	43%	29%
vs Weaker (19)	24.8	21.3	46.1	+3.5	84%	42%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 95
Last 30 (30)	48.2	44.8	93.0	+3.4	57%	40%
Last 30 at home (15)	49.7	46.4	96.1	+3.3	60%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	46.7	43.3	90.0	+3.5	53%	27%
Last 10 (10)	54.0	45.2	99.2	+8.8	90%	60%
Last 5 (5)	53.6	43.6	97.2	+10.0	100%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (8)	46.8	43.4	90.1	+3.4	50%	25%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)	48.7	45.4	94.1	+3.4	59%	45%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 95
Last 30 (30)	47.3	44.6	91.9	+2.8	60%	33%
Last 30 at home (17)	47.2	42.4	89.6	+4.9	71%	24%
Last 30 away (13)	47.5	47.5	94.9	+0.0	46%	46%
Last 10 (10)	49.3	46.5	95.8	+2.8	50%	30%
Last 5 (5)	53.0	47.8	100.8	+5.2	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)	50.0	51.8	101.8	-1.8	25%	75%
vs Similar (7)	44.4	47.6	92.0	-3.1	29%	14%
vs Weaker (19)	47.8	41.9	89.8	+5.9	79%	32%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

MAD win + total 187.5

🔒 Pro

MUR win + total 187.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: MAD leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: MUR leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (MAD:MUR): MAD wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Q2: Over 43	73.2%	1.76	Marathon Bet 1.76	-	-	-	-	+20.0pp	Won
1st half: Over 89	71.1%	1.81	Marathon Bet 1.81	1xBet 1.81	-	-	-	+19.5pp	Lost
1st half: Over 87.5	75.2%	1.58	1xBet 1.63	Bet365 1.60	Betano 1.50	-	-	+17.3pp	Lost
1st half: Over 85.5	80.9%	1.45	Bet365 1.45	-	-	-	-	+16.7pp	Won
1st half: Over 83.5	85.7%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+15.8pp	Won
1st half: Over 88.5	72.1%	1.62	1xBet 1.73	Bet365 1.62	Betano 1.52	-	-	+15.0pp	Lost
1st half: Real Madrid over 45.5	75.7%	1.52	Bet365 1.52	-	-	-	-	+14.5pp	Won
1st half: Over 81.5	89.7%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+14.4pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid over 43.5	83.7%	1.34	Bet365 1.34	-	-	-	-	+14.2pp	Won
1st half: Over 86.5	78.1%	1.45	Bet365 1.45	-	-	-	-	+13.9pp	Lost
1st half: Over 84.5	83.4%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+13.4pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid over 41.5	89.5%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+13.4pp	Won
1st half: Over 79.5	92.8%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+13.3pp	Won
1st half: Over 82.5	87.9%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+13.1pp	Won
Q1: Over 41.5	80.2%	1.37	Bet365 1.37	-	-	-	-	+12.6pp	Won
1st half: Murcia over 37.5	83.2%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+12.2pp	Won
1st half: Murcia over 39.5	74.6%	1.48	Bet365 1.50	Betano 1.45	-	-	-	+12.2pp	Lost
Q1: Over 39.5	87.2%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+11.9pp	Won
1st half: Over 80.5	91.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+11.9pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid over 39.5	93.8%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+11.5pp	Won
Q1: Over 43.5	71.1%	1.54	Bet365 1.58	1xBet 1.54	Betano 1.50	-	-	+11.0pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 87.5	90.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+10.6pp	Won
1st half: Murcia over 35.5	89.3%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+10.4pp	Won
Real Madrid over 89.5	86.3%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 18.5	76.7%	1.38	Bet365 1.38	Betano 1.37	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
2nd half: Real Madrid (regulation)	71.2%	1.48	Marathon Bet 1.50	1xBet 1.50	Betano 1.45	-	-	+10.1pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid over 20.5	83.5%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid over 46.5	71.0%	1.47	Betano 1.47	-	-	-	-	+9.5pp	Won
Real Madrid over 88.5	88.3%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+9.5pp	Won
Over 178	75.5%	1.39	Bet365 1.40	Marathon Bet 1.37	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Lost
Q1: Real Madrid over 18.5	91.7%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid over 37.5	96.5%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Won
Real Madrid over 91.5	81.6%	1.27	Bet365 1.30	Betano 1.23	-	-	-	+9.1pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 85.5	93.1%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Won
1st half: Murcia over 33.5	93.7%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Real Madrid over 93.5	76.0%	1.35	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Lost
Q1: Murcia over 16.5	87.3%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+8.4pp	Won
Over 175.5	79.6%	1.30	Bet365 1.31	Betano 1.29	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Lost
Over 170.5	87.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 83.5	95.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
1st half: Murcia over 31.5	96.6%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid over 22.5	71.9%	1.44	Bet365 1.50	Betano 1.38	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 81.5	96.9%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
Over 179	73.4%	1.41	Marathon Bet 1.41	Bet365 1.41	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Lost
Q1: Real Madrid over 16.5	96.4%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Won
Murcia over 76.5	88.1%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+7.6pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 79.5	98.0%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Won
Real Madrid over 78.5	98.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Real Madrid over 77.5	98.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 14.5	93.8%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 17.5	82.3%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Over 165.5	92.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Lost
Q1: Real Madrid over 14.5	98.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Over 171.5	85.9%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 94.5	72.9%	1.37	Betano 1.37	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Lost
Real Madrid over 92.5	78.9%	1.26	Betano 1.26	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Lost
Murcia over 70.5	96.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
Over 176.5	77.8%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	Betano 1.30	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Lost
Murcia over 72.5	94.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Lost
Q1: Murcia over 12.5	97.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 15.5	91.0%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Over 160.5	96.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
2nd half: Real Madrid win	73.8%	1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 13.5	96.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Murcia over 74.5	91.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Lost
Real Madrid -6	71.4%	1.43	Marathon Bet 1.43	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Real Madrid (regulation)	83.3%	1.21	1xBet 1.24	Marathon Bet 1.22	Betano 1.17	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Over 178.5	74.0%	1.38	Marathon Bet 1.40	Bet365 1.38	Betano 1.35	-	-	+6.3pp	Lost
Murcia over 66.5	98.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Real Madrid -4	77.6%	1.31	Marathon Bet 1.31	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Over 166.5	91.7%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Lost
Over 161.5	95.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Lost
Murcia under 99.5	85.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Murcia over 68.5	97.6%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Murcia over 69.5	97.1%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.9pp	Won
Murcia over 67.5	98.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 11.5	98.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Murcia over 71.5	95.3%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Lost
Over 180	71.4%	1.41	Marathon Bet 1.41	Bet365 1.41	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Lost
Real Madrid -5	74.6%	1.36	Marathon Bet 1.37	Bet365 1.35	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Murcia under 98.5	83.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Murcia under 107.5	96.0%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Over 172.5	84.4%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Lost
Murcia under 108.5	96.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Real Madrid under 119.5	96.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Over 162.5	94.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Lost
Real Madrid under 118.5	95.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Q1: Murcia over 10.5	99.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Murcia under 109.5	96.9%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Real Madrid -3	80.1%	1.25	Marathon Bet 1.26	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Real Madrid under 117.5	95.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Murcia over 80.5	78.3%	1.25	Bet365 1.30	Betano 1.21	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Lost
Over 177.5	75.9%	1.33	Marathon Bet 1.36	Betano 1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	+5.3pp	Lost
Real Madrid +9.5	96.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Over 179.5	72.0%	1.39	Marathon Bet 1.40	Betano 1.39	Bet365 1.38	-	-	+5.3pp	Lost
Over 167.5	90.7%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Lost
Real Madrid -3.5	78.3%	1.27	Marathon Bet 1.29	Bet365 1.28	Betano 1.25	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Real Madrid -4.5	75.4%	1.33	Marathon Bet 1.35	Bet365 1.34	Betano 1.30	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Murcia under 103.5	92.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Real Madrid -5.5	72.3%	1.39	Marathon Bet 1.41	Bet365 1.40	BetVictor 1.38	Betano 1.35	-	+5.0pp	Won
Murcia under 105.5	93.9%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Murcia under 101.5	89.3%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Overtime: no	97.0%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	-
Murcia under 97.5	81.0%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Real Madrid -2.5	80.6%	1.23	Marathon Bet 1.25	Bet365 1.23	Betano 1.21	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Real Madrid under 123.5	98.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Murcia over 73.5	92.9%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
Murcia over 77.5	86.0%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
Murcia over 82.5	72.0%	1.36	Bet365 1.41	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
Real Madrid +8.5	95.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Real Madrid +14.5	98.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Murcia over 75.5	90.0%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Lost
Q1: Real Madrid under 34.5	96.7%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid +2.5	82.2%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Real Madrid under 115.5	92.7%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid +3.5	83.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid +0.5	76.2%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+4.3pp	Won
Murcia over 78.5	83.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Lost
Murcia under 106.5	95.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Real Madrid +4.5	91.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Murcia under 104.5	93.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
Murcia +31.5	94.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid +4.5	87.0%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Won
Real Madrid -1.5	83.4%	1.16	Betano 1.17	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Real Madrid under 113.5	89.6%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Q1: Murcia under 31.5	97.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid +1.5	74.8%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Murcia over 79.5	81.1%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Lost
Real Madrid under 111.5	85.6%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid under 32.5	92.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Q1: Murcia under 30.5	95.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Real Madrid win	85.1%	1.17	Marathon Bet 1.21	1xBet 1.21	WilliamHill 1.17	Pinnacle 1.17	Bet365 1.16	+3.1pp	Won
Under 212.5	91.8%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+3.1pp	Won
Murcia over 81.5	75.3%	1.27	Bet365 1.28	Betano 1.25	-	-	-	+3.0pp	Lost
Q1: Murcia under 29.5	93.1%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Murcia under 102.5	90.8%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Murcia under 95.5	75.5%	1.26	Bet365 1.31	Betano 1.21	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid or Murcia	94.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	-
1st half: Real Madrid (regulation)	72.9%	1.30	Bet365 1.36	Marathon Bet 1.30	1xBet 1.30	WilliamHill 1.29	Betano 1.27	+2.4pp	Won
Real Madrid +3.5	89.8%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+2.3pp	Won
Highest quarter: Real Madrid	70.2%	1.34	Bet365 1.41	Betano 1.27	-	-	-	+2.3pp	-
Under 211.5	90.9%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Murcia under 100.5	87.5%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Won
Murcia +30.5	92.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
Real Madrid under 109.5	80.7%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
Q2: Real Madrid or Murcia	94.9%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	-
Real Madrid under 108.5	77.9%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
Murcia +26.5	89.1%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.6pp	Won
Q1: Murcia +8.5	77.7%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+1.5pp	Won
Under 207.5	86.5%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.5pp	Won
Under 210.5	89.9%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+1.2pp	Won
Q1: Murcia under 28.5	90.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Murcia under 96.5	78.3%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+0.5pp	Won
Murcia +19	73.5%	1.26	Bet365 1.27	Marathon Bet 1.25	-	-	-	+0.4pp	Push
Murcia under 94.5	72.4%	1.27	Bet365 1.28	Betano 1.26	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
Under 202.5	79.1%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
Under 206.5	85.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Real Madrid under 107.5	74.9%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid win	75.3%	1.29	Bet365 1.33	WilliamHill 1.33	BetVictor 1.29	Pinnacle 1.27	Betano 1.23	+0.2pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid under 30.5	85.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.1pp	Won
Murcia +21.5	79.4%	1.17	Bet365 1.18	Betano 1.15	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Won
1st half: Murcia +15.5	83.6%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Won
Q1: Murcia under 27.5	85.7%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Won
Murcia +19.5	74.3%	1.24	Bet365 1.26	Marathon Bet 1.24	Betano 1.21	-	-	-0.8pp	Won
1st half: Murcia +13.5	77.8%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-1.1pp	Won
Under 205.5	83.8%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-1.2pp	Won
Under 201.5	77.4%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-1.5pp	Won
Murcia +20.5	76.9%	1.18	Betano 1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-1.6pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid under 57.5	84.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Won
Murcia +25.5	85.6%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Won
1st half: Murcia under 51.5	85.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Won
Q1: Real Madrid under 28.5	74.0%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	-2.1pp	Won
Murcia +18.5	71.4%	1.24	Bet365 1.26	Betano 1.25	Marathon Bet 1.22	-	-	-2.5pp	Lost
Real Madrid under 106.5	71.7%	1.22	Betano 1.22	-	-	-	-	-2.5pp	Won
Murcia +18	70.5%	1.25	Bet365 1.27	Marathon Bet 1.23	-	-	-	-2.6pp	Lost
1st half: Murcia +11.5	70.5%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	-2.8pp	Won
Q1: Murcia under 25.5	74.9%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-2.9pp	Won
Q1: Murcia under 26.5	80.9%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	-2.9pp	Won
Under 200.5	75.6%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-3.3pp	Won
1st half: Murcia under 49.5	77.6%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-3.8pp	Won
1st half: Real Madrid under 55.5	76.4%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-4.1pp	Won
Q1: Under 51.5	72.0%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	-4.2pp	Won
1st half: Under 100.5	71.0%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-7.8pp	Won
Real Madrid or draw	85.1%	1.14	Marathon Bet 1.14	-	-	-	-	-	-

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀39%

🏀🏀🏀42%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points

🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 92.7 points a game

47%

34%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.8	20.6	57.5%	55.8%	41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	35.8	15.0	41.9%	36.2%	45.0
🏀 Free throws	23.5	19.8	84.3%	76.0%	19.8

They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 87.9 points a game scored

🏀🏀42%

🏀🏀🏀37%

🏀22%

🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 42% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 37% of the points

🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 22% of the points

League average for comparison: 92.7 points a game

47%

34%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.2	18.4	50.8%	55.8%	36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.7	10.7	32.7%	36.2%	32.1
🏀 Free throws	24.5	19.0	77.6%	76.0%	19.0

They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.9	22.3	50.8%	55.8%	44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	8.5	33.5%	36.2%	25.5
🏀 Free throws	20.2	14.6	72.3%	76.0%	14.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.9	20.2	49.4%	55.8%	40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	21.8	8.8	40.4%	36.2%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	27.0	20.0	74.1%	76.0%	20.0

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.3	20.0	61.9%	55.8%	40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.9	11.5	37.3%	36.2%	34.5
🏀 Free throws	19.7	15.8	80.2%	76.0%	15.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.1	19.8	53.4%	55.8%	39.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.9	10.8	34.8%	36.2%	32.3
🏀 Free throws	23.5	17.7	75.6%	76.0%	17.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.7	20.5	55.9%	55.8%	41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.8	9.6	35.9%	36.2%	28.9
🏀 Free throws	17.7	13.3	75.3%	76.0%	13.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.7	21.7	50.8%	55.8%	43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	22.0	7.9	36.0%	36.2%	23.7
🏀 Free throws	25.8	19.0	73.9%	76.0%	19.0

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Real Madrid

LWWWWWWWWW

Murcia

WLWLWLWWLL

League position

#11

+23.0

Net rating

+1.2

114.6

Offensive rating

97.1

91.6

Defensive rating

95.9

60.2%

Effective FG%

50.0%

50.6%

Opp. effective FG%

53.3%

12.7%

Turnover %

14.0%

0.33

Free-throw rate

0.36

41.9%

3-point %

32.7%

62.4%

Assist %

53.3%

90%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ Real Madrid ■ Murcia

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Real Madrid wins

Murcia wins

Date	Game	Score
03/05/26	Real Madrid v Murcia	131-123 OT
30/12/25	Murcia v Real Madrid	80-91
09/03/25	Real Madrid v Murcia	80-75
03/11/24	Murcia v Real Madrid	64-85
12/06/24	Murcia v Real Madrid	73-84
10/06/24	Real Madrid v Murcia	79-63
08/06/24	Real Madrid v Murcia	84-76
15/02/24	Real Madrid v Murcia	84-79
14/01/24	Murcia v Real Madrid	73-61
15/10/23	Real Madrid v Murcia	106-92

Real Madridlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	H	Panathinaikos	112-115 OT
01/11/26	H	San Pablo Burgos	90-79
29/10/26	H	Fenerbahce	95-76
27/10/26	A	Baskonia	104-86
25/10/26	A	Forca Lleida	122-86
22/10/26	A	Maccabi Tel Aviv	113-99
18/10/26	H	Bilbao	119-84
15/10/26	H	Lyon-Villeurbanne	111-92
13/10/26	A	Olimpia Milano	98-89
11/10/26	H	Manresa	120-83

Murcialast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
31/10/26	H	Forca Lleida	125-98
27/10/26	H	Peristeri	72-80
24/10/26	H	Leyma Coruna	88-81
18/10/26	A	Valencia	93-116
14/10/26	A	Bamberg	86-67
11/10/26	H	Tenerife	77-90
07/10/26	H	Varese	85-58
04/10/26	H	Barcelona	100-94
27/09/26	A	Basquet Girona	77-84
06/06/26	H	Barcelona	76-100

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid

ACB 2026-27

Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	100%
Home	WWWW	100%
Away	WW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	4	2
Win %	100%	100%	100%
Points / game	109.0	104.5	118.0
Allowed / game	87.7	83.2	96.5
Point differential	+21.3	+21.2	+21.5
Avg total	196.7	187.8	214.5
Over 187.5	67%	50%	100%
Win by 10+	67%	75%	50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	100% (1)	-
Overtime %	17%	0%	50%

Murcia

ACB 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLWW	50%
Home	WLWW	75%
Away	LL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	4	2
Win %	50%	75%	0%
Points / game	93.3	97.5	85.0
Allowed / game	93.8	90.8	100.0
Point differential	-0.5	+6.8	-15.0
Avg total	187.2	188.2	185.0
Over 187.5	50%	50%	50%
Win by 10+	17%	25%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	100%	109.0	87.7	+21.3
2	Valencia	7	5	2	71%	99.1	88.0	+11.1
3	Baskonia	7	5	2	71%	95.0	84.3	+10.7
4	Tenerife	7	5	2	71%	86.7	79.0	+7.7
5	Basket Zaragoza	7	5	2	71%	92.6	87.7	+4.9
6	Barcelona	7	5	2	71%	97.3	94.4	+2.9
7	Breogan	7	4	3	57%	102.7	98.7	+4.0
8	Bilbao	7	4	3	57%	92.0	92.6	-0.6
9	Basquet Girona	7	4	3	57%	90.7	97.3	-6.6
10	Murcia	6	3	3	50%	93.3	93.8	-0.5
11	Unicaja	7	3	4	43%	88.7	86.1	+2.6
12	Obradoiro CAB	7	3	4	43%	90.3	96.6	-6.3
13	Leyma Coruna	7	3	4	43%	91.9	99.9	-8.0
14	Joventut Badalona	7	2	5	29%	89.3	89.9	-0.6
15	San Pablo Burgos	7	2	5	29%	88.7	89.3	-0.6
16	MoraBanc Andorra	7	1	6	14%	86.7	97.4	-10.7
17	Forca Lleida	7	1	6	14%	92.9	105.6	-12.7
18	Manresa	7	1	6	14%	86.6	102.3	-15.7

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Real Madrid	22	25	16	27	90
Murcia	20	19	16	16	71

← all games of the day

Real Madrid vs Murcia Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Total points distribution

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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