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Boise State vs San Diego State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 86-77
34-27 52-50
Position#101
Record18-11
FormLLWWW
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game73.2
Boise State 🏆
USA
vs
San Diego State
USA
Position#70
Record19-9
FormWLLWL
Points / game79.2
Allowed / game70.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Boise State v San Diego State
23 Jan 2027
BOIS v SAN
upcoming
03 Mar 2026
BOIS86
SAN 77
04 Jan 2025
BOIS68
SAN 76
20 Jan 2024
BOIS67
SAN 66
28 Feb 2023
BOIS66
SAN 60
12 Mar 2022
BOIS53
SAN 52
22 Feb 2022
BOIS58
SAN 57
16 Feb 2020
BOIS55
SAN 72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boise State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
San Diego State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boise StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Air Force
#371
W
96-54
96
54
+42
H24/01
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
89-58
89
58
+31
A28/01
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
69-86
69
86
-17
A31/01
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
91-87 OT
91
87
+4
H04/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
91-90
91
90
+1
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
83-86 OT
83
86
-3
H14/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
56-75
56
75
-19
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
69-53
69
53
+16
A01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
48-29
48-25
36-33
53-25
41-43
28-43
39-28
40-51
43-42
48-48
40-29
37-48
23-30
33-45
36-31
48-38
32-30
40-32
28-23
41-30
152.0Avg total
80.0Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)78.173.2151.3+4.962%
Season at home (18)76.270.7146.9+5.667%
Season away (11)81.177.4158.5+3.755%
Last 10 (10)80.072.0152.0+8.070%
Last 5 (5)72.869.0141.8+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)74.375.8150.2-1.567%
vs Similar ◀ (17)75.875.2151.0+0.653%
vs Weaker (7)83.665.6149.1+18.071%
This opponent (San Diego State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Diego StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
W
82-71
82
71
+11
A24/01
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
73-50
73
50
+23
H29/01
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
66-71
66
71
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H04/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
88-54
88
54
+34
A08/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
71-57
71
57
+14
H15/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
63-73
63
73
-10
H18/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
74-83
74
83
-9
A21/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H26/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
76-81
76
81
-5
A28/02
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
43-37
33-27
40-23
34-34
32-37
35-24
37-39
45-26
43-28
36-25
35-32
33-29
30-44
25-38
49-45
46-33
43-39
37-36
39-45
142.9Avg total
75.4Scored
67.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)79.270.5149.6+8.768%
Season at home (16)83.669.2152.9+14.481%
Season away (12)73.272.1145.3+1.250%
Last 10 (10)75.467.5142.9+7.960%
Last 5 (5)74.673.2147.8+1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)66.274.2140.4-8.040%
vs Similar ◀ (15)76.476.3152.7+0.147%
vs Weaker (10)86.061.5147.5+24.5100%
This opponent (Boise State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +4.8+4.81st half: +5.7+5.72nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +2.2+2.2
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +4.8+4.81st half: +5.7+5.72nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +2.2+2.2
Boise StateSan Diego State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Boise StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Air Force
#371
W
48-29
48
29
+19
H24/01
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A31/01
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H04/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A01/03
NCAA
68.4Avg total
36.6Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.933.167.9+1.863%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.831.967.8+3.972%-
Last 30 away (12)33.434.868.2-1.350%-
Last 10 (10)36.631.868.4+4.880%-
Last 5 (5)31.828.660.4+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.234.066.2-1.867%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)34.933.067.9+1.959%-
vs Weaker (7)37.132.469.6+4.771%-
This opponent (San Diego State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Diego StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H29/01
NCAA
Utah State
#20
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A31/01
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H04/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
45-26
45
26
+19
A08/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H15/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H18/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H26/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A28/02
NCAA
66.9Avg total
36.3Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.132.470.4+5.773%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.930.869.7+8.183%-
Last 30 away (12)36.834.771.5+2.258%-
Last 10 (10)36.330.666.9+5.780%-
Last 5 (5)35.432.267.6+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.634.469.0+0.240%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)35.732.868.5+2.967%-
vs Weaker (10)43.330.774.0+12.6100%-
This opponent (Boise State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Boise State wins
4
San Diego State wins
DateGameScore
04/01/26San Diego State v Boise State110-107 OT
13/03/25San Diego State v Boise State52-62
16/02/25San Diego State v Boise State64-47
04/01/25Boise State v San Diego State68-76
09/03/24San Diego State v Boise State77-79 OT
20/01/24Boise State v San Diego State67-66
01/03/23Boise State v San Diego State66-60
04/02/23San Diego State v Boise State72-52
12/03/22Boise State v San Diego State53-52
23/02/22Boise State v San Diego State58-57
Boise Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26AFresno State69-53
25/02/26HWyoming72-62
21/02/26HSan Jose State84-69
19/02/26AUtah State56-75
14/02/26HUNLV83-86 OT
08/02/26ANew Mexico91-90
04/02/26HNevada91-87 OT
31/01/26AGrand Canyon69-86
28/01/26ASan Jose State89-58
24/01/26HAir Force96-54
San Diego Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26ANew Mexico76-81
26/02/26HUtah State89-72
21/02/26AColorado State74-83
18/02/26HGrand Canyon63-73
15/02/26HNevada71-57
08/02/26AAir Force88-54
04/02/26HWyoming72-63
31/01/26AUtah State66-71
29/01/26HColorado State73-50
24/01/26AUNLV82-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boise State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW62%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayWLWLW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %62%67%55%
Points / game78.176.281.1
Allowed / game73.270.777.4
Point differential+4.9+5.6+3.7
Avg total151.3146.9158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%33%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)57% (7)33% (3)
Overtime %14%11%18%
San Diego State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL68%
HomeWWWLW81%
AwayWLWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281612
Win %68%81%50%
Points / game79.283.673.2
Allowed / game70.569.272.1
Point differential+8.7+14.4+1.2
Avg total149.6152.9145.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%62%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)67% (3)25% (4)
Overtime %7%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State2924583%83.369.7+13.6
2 New Mexico2922776%80.769.7+11.0
3 San Diego State2819968%79.270.5+8.7
4 Colorado State29191066%77.071.1+5.9
5 Nevada29191066%76.072.0+4.0
6 Grand Canyon29181162%74.868.7+6.1
7 Boise State29181162%78.173.2+4.9
8 Wyoming29161355%76.872.8+4.0
9 UNLV29151452%79.678.9+0.7
10 Fresno State29121741%73.372.8+0.6
11 San Jose State2982128%71.377.7-6.4
12 Air Force2932610%62.279.9-17.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Boise State345286
San Diego State275077
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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