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Fresno State vs Boise State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 53-69
23-28 30-41
Position#275
Record12-16
FormLWLLL
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game72.9
vs
Position#101
Record17-11
FormWLLWW
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game73.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Fresno State v Boise State
20 Jan 2027
FRES v BOIS
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
FRES53
BOIS69
01 Mar 2025
FRES61
BOIS66
23 Jan 2024
FRES68
BOIS72
28 Jan 2022
FRES63
BOIS68
25 Jan 2020
FRES53
BOIS87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fresno State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boise State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
L
74-83
74
83
-9
A22/01
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
57-68
57
68
-11
H25/01
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A31/01
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
98-96
98
96
+2
H04/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A08/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A11/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
93-63
93
63
+30
H14/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
82-92
82
92
-10
A18/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
78-80
78
80
-2
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
23-36
51-47
19-26
38-42
44-39
35-23
49-50
49-46
28-28
31-41
35-47
43-44
45-33
48-30
40-42
42-50
44-32
34-48
39-32
31-42
154.6Avg total
76.8Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)74.072.9146.9+1.143%
Season at home (17)76.069.9145.9+6.159%
Season away (11)71.077.5148.5-6.518%
Last 10 (10)76.877.8154.6-1.030%
Last 5 (5)80.280.0160.2+0.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)69.276.9146.1-7.822%
vs Similar (6)81.779.0160.7+2.750%
vs Weaker (5)77.861.8139.6+16.080%
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boise StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wyoming
#148
W
81-65
81
65
+16
A21/01
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
96-54
96
54
+42
H24/01
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
89-58
89
58
+31
A28/01
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
69-86
69
86
-17
A31/01
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
91-87 OT
91
87
+4
H04/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
91-90
91
90
+1
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
83-86 OT
83
86
-3
H14/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
56-75
56
75
-19
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
72-62
72
62
+10
H25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
38-18
43-47
48-29
48-25
36-33
53-25
41-43
28-43
39-28
40-51
43-42
48-48
40-29
37-48
23-30
33-45
36-31
48-38
32-30
40-32
154.4Avg total
81.2Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)78.473.9152.3+4.561%
Season at home (18)76.270.7146.9+5.667%
Season away (10)82.379.8162.1+2.550%
Last 10 (10)81.273.2154.4+8.070%
Last 5 (5)77.276.4153.6+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)74.375.8150.2-1.567%
vs Similar (18)75.674.8150.4+0.856%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)86.067.7153.7+18.367%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +1.6+1.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +1.6+1.6
Fresno StateBoise State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A22/01
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
19-26
19
26
-7
H25/01
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A31/01
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H04/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A08/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A11/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A18/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A25/02
NCAA
73.1Avg total
36.6Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.034.768.7-0.743%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.532.466.9+2.253%-
Last 30 away (13)33.337.771.0-4.431%-
Last 10 (10)36.636.573.1+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)40.637.277.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)30.734.965.6-4.222%-
vs Similar (6)38.736.375.0+2.367%-
vs Weaker (5)38.633.071.6+5.680%-
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boise StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wyoming
#148
W
38-18
38
18
+20
A21/01
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
48-29
48
29
+19
H24/01
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A31/01
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H04/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H25/02
NCAA
68.9Avg total
37.6Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.933.468.3+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.831.967.8+3.972%-
Last 30 away (12)33.435.769.1-2.242%-
Last 10 (10)37.631.368.9+6.380%-
Last 5 (5)34.832.467.2+2.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.234.066.2-1.867%-
vs Similar (18)34.533.167.6+1.456%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)38.734.072.7+4.767%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Fresno State wins
9
Boise State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26AColorado State70-74
22/02/26HNew Mexico78-80
18/02/26AWyoming82-92
14/02/26HAir Force93-63
11/02/26AUtah State78-91
08/02/26ANevada59-69
04/02/26HUNLV98-96
31/01/26AAir Force79-62
25/01/26HGrand Canyon57-68
22/01/26ANew Mexico74-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HWyoming72-62
21/02/26HSan Jose State84-69
19/02/26AUtah State56-75
14/02/26HUNLV83-86 OT
08/02/26ANew Mexico91-90
04/02/26HNevada91-87 OT
31/01/26AGrand Canyon69-86
28/01/26ASan Jose State89-58
24/01/26HAir Force96-54
21/01/26AWyoming81-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fresno State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL43%
HomeWLWWL59%
AwayWLLLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %43%59%18%
Points / game74.076.071.0
Allowed / game72.969.977.5
Point differential+1.1+6.1-6.5
Avg total146.9145.9148.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%29%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)44% (9)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Boise State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW61%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayWWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281810
Win %61%67%50%
Points / game78.476.282.3
Allowed / game73.970.779.8
Point differential+4.5+5.6+2.5
Avg total152.3146.9162.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%33%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)57% (7)33% (3)
Overtime %14%11%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State2823582%83.669.8+13.9
2 New Mexico2922776%80.769.7+11.0
3 San Diego State2819968%79.270.5+8.7
4 Nevada2819968%75.871.5+4.2
5 Colorado State29191066%77.071.1+5.9
6 Grand Canyon28181064%75.068.5+6.5
7 Boise State28171161%78.473.9+4.5
8 Wyoming29161355%76.872.8+4.0
9 UNLV28141450%79.478.8+0.6
10 Fresno State28121643%74.072.9+1.1
11 San Jose State2982128%71.377.7-6.4
12 Air Force2932610%62.279.9-17.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Fresno State233053
Boise State284169
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