Boston College faces UMass on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Eagles who are projected to win 73% of the time and score 76 points against 69 for the Minutemen, a 76-69 outcome that would give Boston College a 73% chance to cover the -5.5 spread and a 56% chance to hit the over on the 144.5 total, while the game has a 4% chance of overtime. Boston College enters the contest with a 1-0 record, averaging 76.0 points scored and 50.0 allowed, and sits 108th in the league, while UMass also stands 1-0, 71.0 points scored and 60.0 allowed, 168th. The Eagles have won all one home game, 76-50 over Wagner, and have a 3-2 record in their last five, whereas the Minutemen have won all one road game, 71-60 over Troy, and also a 3-2 record in their last five, with a recent 87-83 win over Miami (Ohio). Historically the teams have met once, with UMass winning 76-74 in December 2025.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boston College winWon
73.3%fair 1.36
Best odds1.43
Implied67.5%
Edge+5.8pp
UMass winLost
26.7%fair 3.74
Best odds3.00
Implied32.5%
Edge-5.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Boston College) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139Actual: Under 139
Over 139
66.3%
@ 1.50+3.8pp
Under 139
33.7%
@ 2.50-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 144 · main lineActual: Under 144
Over 144
54.3%
@ 1.94+5.0pp
Under 144
45.7%
@ 1.88-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
41.9%
@ 2.62+6.5pp
Under 149
58.1%
@ 1.44-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Boston College total 71.5Actual: Boston College under 71.5
Over 71.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under 71.5
no forecast
@ 2.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.35
Boston College total 76 · main lineActual: Boston College under 76
Over 76
52.1%
@ 1.84+1.8pp
Under 76
47.9%
@ 1.86-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
Boston College total 80Actual: Boston College under 80
Over 80
35.9%
Under 80
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass total 66Actual: UMass under 66
Over 66
63.3%
Under 66
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass total 70 · main lineActual: UMass under 70
Over 70
47.3%
@ 1.85-2.7pp
Under 70
52.7%
@ 1.85+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
UMass total 74Actual: UMass under 74
Over 74
32.0%
Under 74
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Boston College -8.5Actual: Boston College -8.5
BOST -8.5
44.9%
@ 2.40+5.6pp
UMAS +8.5
55.1%
@ 1.55-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BOST
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.30
UMAS
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.50
Spread Boston College -5.5 · main lineActual: Boston College -5.5
BOST -5.5
56.2%
@ 1.96+7.1pp
UMAS +5.5
43.8%
@ 1.90-7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
BOST
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
UMAS
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Boston College -2.5Actual: Boston College -2.5
BOST -2.5
66.9%
@ 1.55+6.5pp
UMAS +2.5
33.1%
@ 2.40-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BOST
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
UMAS
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Boston CollegeUMass
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Boston College) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Boston College win
BOST win
no forecast
@ 1.62
UMAS win
no forecast
@ 2.32
2nd half Spread Boston College -2.5 · main lineActual: Boston College -2.5
BOST -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
UMAS +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Boston College (regulation)
BOST
no forecast
@ 1.67
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
UMAS
no forecast
@ 2.37
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Boston College (regulation)
70.8%
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.46
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Boston College -1.5
70.8%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Boston College -1
72.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Boston College win
73.3%
1.41
Marathon Bet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
WilliamHill
1.40
+5.8pp
Won
Boston College +2.5
78.6%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Boston College +1.5
75.5%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Boston College +1
74.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Boston College +3.5
80.8%
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.2pp
-
Boston College +13.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Boston College +2
77.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Boston College +8.5
90.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Boston College under 95.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Over 137
70.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Boston College under 93.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
71.4%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
UMass over 52.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Boston College under 91.5
93.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 136
72.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
UMass under 75.5
72.4%
1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
UMass over 54.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 135.5
73.5%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
UMass +21.5
89.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
UMass over 53.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
UMass under 76.5
75.4%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Boston College under 89.5
90.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 170.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
UMass +16.5
79.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
UMass over 56.5
89.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
UMass under 79.5
83.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
UMass over 55.5
91.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Under 169.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Boston College under 87.5
86.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
UMass over 63.5
71.7%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Boston College under 85.5
81.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
UMass +14.5
74.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
UMass +14
74.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Lost
UMass over 60.5
80.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Over 125.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Boston College under 86.5
84.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
UMass over 62.5
74.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Lost
UMass over 58.5
85.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Lost
UMass under 78.5
81.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
UMass under 80.5
85.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
75.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Lost
Under 165.5
88.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
UMass over 57.5
87.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Lost
Over 129.5
84.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
UMass +13.5
71.9%
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Lost
UMass over 59.5
83.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Lost
UMass over 61.5
78.0%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Lost
Under 164.5
86.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
UMass +13
71.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
Under 160.5
81.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Over 130.5
82.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Lost
Under 155.5
72.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Boston College under 83.5
75.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Boston College under 84.5
78.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Under 159.5
79.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Under 154.5
70.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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