Bowling Green hosts Cleveland State on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Bowling Green the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win because of their undefeated 1-0 record, 76.0 points per game and only 73.0 points allowed, placing them 134th in the league, while Cleveland State sits 272nd with a 1-1 record, 76.5 points per game but 95.0 points allowed. Bowling Green's single game this season was a 76-73 win over Georgia State, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, with recent victories over Georgia State and Eastern Michigan and a narrow loss to Toledo. Cleveland State's two games this season yielded a 50-111 loss to Missouri and a 103-79 win over Michigan Dearborn, and their last five games show two wins and three losses, with a recent 103-79 win at home and losses away to Missouri and Wright State. In their only prior meeting on 15 December 2019, Bowling Green beat Cleveland State 72-58. Pythia projects a 91-69 score for Bowling Green, a total of 160.5 points, a 12.5-point home line that Bowling Green covers with a 79% probability, and an over on the 157.5 total with a 57% chance, while the overtime probability is 1%. The game will end with Bowling Green's 91-point performance against Cleveland State's 69.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bowling Green winWon
96.6%fair 1.04
Best odds1.12
Implied86.7%
Edge+9.9pp
Cleveland State winLost
3.4%fair 29.40
Best odds8.00
Implied13.3%
Edge-9.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Bowling Green) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
72.7%
@ 1.43+7.7pp
Under 151
27.3%
@ 2.65-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Over 156
Over 156
61.2%
@ 1.89+10.7pp
Under 156
38.8%
@ 1.95-10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 161Actual: Over 161
Over 161
48.6%
@ 2.50+11.1pp
Under 161
51.4%
@ 1.50-11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Bowling Green total 81Actual: Bowling Green over 81
Over 81
85.5%
Under 81
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bowling Green total 85 · main lineActual: Bowling Green over 85
Over 85
74.0%
@ 1.85+23.4pp
Under 85
26.0%
@ 1.87-23.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bowling Green total 89Actual: Bowling Green over 89
Over 89
58.8%
Under 89
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State total 68Actual: Cleveland State over 68
Over 68
55.6%
Under 68
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State total 72 · main lineActual: Cleveland State over 72
Over 72
39.1%
@ 1.87-10.9pp
Under 72
60.9%
@ 1.86+10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Cleveland State total 76Actual: Cleveland State over 76
Over 76
24.5%
Under 76
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Bowling Green -15.5Actual: Bowling Green -15.5
BOWL -15.5
70.8%
@ 2.30+29.7pp
CLEV +15.5
29.2%
@ 1.64-29.7pp
Best 5 market prices
BOWL
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.12
CLEV
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Spread Bowling Green -12.5 · main lineActual: Bowling Green -12.5
BOWL -12.5
79.1%
@ 1.94+29.5pp
CLEV +12.5
20.9%
@ 2.00-29.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BOWL
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.78
CLEV
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Bowling Green -9.5Actual: Bowling Green -9.5
BOWL -9.5
85.7%
@ 1.54+25.1pp
CLEV +9.5
14.3%
@ 2.35-25.1pp
Best 5 market prices
BOWL
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
CLEV
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Bowling GreenCleveland State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Bowling GreenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#98
L
14-40
14
40
-26
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
38-19
38
19
+19
A12/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H14/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
25-30
25
30
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A21/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H25/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/03
NCAA
Georgia State
#316
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A02/11
NCAA
65.9Avg total
31.0Scored
34.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
36.4
34.1
70.5
+2.3
47%
37%
Last 30 at home (16)
37.6
34.2
71.8
+3.4
50%
31%
Last 30 away (14)
35.1
34.0
69.1
+1.1
43%
43%
Last 10 (10)
31.0
34.9
65.9
-3.9
30%
30%
Last 5 (5)
33.2
36.0
69.2
-2.8
20%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)
28.3
47.3
75.7
-19.0
0%
67%
vs Similar (3)
26.3
37.3
63.7
-11.0
0%
0%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)
37.3
32.3
69.6
+5.0
57%
35%
This opponent (Cleveland State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Bowling Green) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Bowling Green win
BOWL win
no forecast
@ 1.33
CLEV win
no forecast
@ 3.35
2nd half Spread Bowling Green -5.5 · main lineActual: Bowling Green -5.5
BOWL -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
CLEV +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Bowling Green (regulation)
BOWL
no forecast
@ 1.37
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
CLEV
no forecast
@ 3.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Bowling Green -14
75.8%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.98
-
-
+33.0pp
Won
Bowling Green -14.5
73.7%
2.13
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.10
1xBet
1.98
-
+32.8pp
Won
Bowling Green -13.5
76.5%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
BetVictor
1.88
+31.6pp
Won
Bowling Green -13
78.5%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.89
1xBet
1.85
-
+31.5pp
Won
Bowling Green -15
72.9%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Won
Bowling Green -15.5
70.8%
2.22
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.12
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
Bowling Green -12.5
79.1%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.78
+29.5pp
Won
Bowling Green -12
81.0%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.74
1xBet
1.73
-
+28.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 83.5
77.9%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 82.5
80.8%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+27.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 84.5
74.8%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+27.5pp
Won
Bowling Green -11.5
81.5%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.71
+27.1pp
Won
Bowling Green -11
83.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
Bowling Green -10
85.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Won
Bowling Green -10.5
83.7%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
-
+25.6pp
Won
Bowling Green -9.5
85.7%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Won
Bowling Green -9
87.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 85.5
71.5%
1.90
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
+23.5pp
Won
Bowling Green over 85
74.0%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Bowling Green -8.5
87.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Bowling Green -8
89.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Bowling Green -7.5
89.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Bowling Green over 81.5
83.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Bowling Green -7
90.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Bowling Green -6.5
90.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Bowling Green over 80.5
85.8%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 79.5
88.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Bowling Green -6
92.0%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Bowling Green -5.5
92.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Bowling Green -5
93.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Bowling Green -4.5
93.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Bowling Green over 78.5
89.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Bowling Green (regulation)
96.0%
1.12
Marathon Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
-
+15.1pp
Won
Bowling Green -3.5
94.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Bowling Green over 75.5
94.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Bowling Green over 76.5
93.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Bowling Green -2.5
95.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 74.5
95.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Bowling Green over 73.5
96.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Bowling Green win
96.6%
1.09
Marathon Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
+9.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 72.5
96.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Cleveland State under 77.5
79.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Cleveland State under 75.5
73.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Bowling Green +2.5
97.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Bowling Green +1.5
97.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Cleveland State under 76.5
76.3%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Over 151.5
71.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 150.5
73.2%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Cleveland State under 79.5
84.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Over 152
70.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Over 149.5
75.2%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 150
74.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Over 151
72.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Bowling Green +7.5
98.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Over 149
76.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Bowling Green +6.5
98.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Over 148.5
77.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.1%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+6.0pp
-
Over 147.5
79.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 132.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 137.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 142.5
86.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Cleveland State over 54.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 182.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Cleveland State over 55.5
91.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Cleveland State over 56.5
90.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Cleveland State over 57.5
88.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Cleveland State over 58.5
86.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 177.5
85.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Bowling Green under 102.5
87.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Cleveland State over 59.5
83.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Cleveland State over 60.5
81.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Under 172.5
77.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Lost
Bowling Green under 100.5
82.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Cleveland State over 62.5
75.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Cleveland State over 61.5
78.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Cleveland State over 63.5
72.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Bowling Green under 98.5
77.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Bowling Green under 96.5
70.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.