Bowling Green faces Niagara on 12 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the model ranking Bowling Green as the clear favourite at 97% thanks to a 2-0 record, 85.5 points per game and only 76.0 points allowed, placing them 97th in the league, while Niagara sits 390th with a 0-2 record, 56.5 points per game and 82.0 points allowed. Bowling Green's home slate shows a 1-0 record, 95.0 points scored and 79.0 allowed, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 95-79 victory over Cleveland State at home on 9 November 2026; Niagara's road performance is 0-1, 46.0 points scored and 91.0 allowed, with one win in five games, most recently a 67-73 loss to Morgan State at home on 7 November 2026. Their only prior meeting ended with Bowling Green 76-68 on 19 November 2024. The Pythia model projects a 86-63 score, 148.9 total points, and a 75% chance that Bowling Green will cover the home line of -15.5, while the over on the 147.5 total has a 53% probability; overtime is unlikely at 1%.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bowling Green winWon
97.4%fair 1.03
Best odds1.07
Implied90.6%
Edge+6.8pp
Niagara winLost
2.6%fair 38.00
Best odds10.50
Implied9.4%
Edge-6.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Bowling Green) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
63.0%
@ 1.67+5.4pp
Under 143.5
37.0%
@ 2.22-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58
Under
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
50.8%
@ 2.10+5.5pp
Under 148.5
49.2%
@ 1.83-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
Marathon Be
1.63
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
38.5%
@ 3.00+6.8pp
Under 153.5
61.5%
@ 1.36-6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.85
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
📊 3. Team Totals
Bowling Green total 77Actual: Bowling Green over 77
Over 77
82.9%
Under 77
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bowling Green total 81 · main lineActual: Bowling Green over 81
Over 81
70.2%
@ 1.88+20.6pp
Under 81
29.8%
@ 1.85-20.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Bowling Green total 85Actual: Bowling Green over 85
Over 85
54.4%
Under 85
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niagara total 62Actual: Niagara over 62
Over 62
53.2%
Under 62
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niagara total 66 · main lineActual: Niagara over 66
Over 66
36.7%
@ 1.85-13.3pp
Under 66
63.3%
@ 1.85+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Niagara total 70Actual: Niagara over 70
Over 70
22.5%
Under 70
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Bowling Green -18Actual: Niagara +18
BOWL -18
68.4%
@ 2.50+30.9pp
NIAG +18
31.6%
@ 1.50-30.9pp
Best 5 market prices
BOWL
Bet365
2.50
NIAG
Bet365
1.50
Spread Bowling Green -15 · main lineActual: Niagara +15
BOWL -15
77.3%
@ 1.94+27.7pp
NIAG +15
22.7%
@ 1.91-27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
BOWL
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
NIAG
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Spread Bowling Green -12Push
BOWL -12
84.4%
@ 1.57+25.5pp
NIAG +12
15.6%
@ 2.25-25.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BOWL
Bet365
1.57
NIAG
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Bowling GreenNiagara
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Bowling GreenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#342
W
38-19
38
19
+19
A12/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H14/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
25-30
25
30
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A21/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H25/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/03
NCAA
Georgia State
#308
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A02/11
NCAA
Cleveland State
#236
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H10/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
34.0Scored
34.6Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 68.5
Last 30 (30)
36.6
33.8
70.5
+2.8
50%
53%
Last 30 at home (17)
37.9
34.4
72.3
+3.6
53%
59%
Last 30 away (13)
34.9
33.2
68.1
+1.8
46%
46%
Last 10 (10)
34.0
34.6
68.6
-0.6
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
34.4
35.2
69.6
-0.8
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)
28.3
47.3
75.7
-19.0
0%
100%
vs Similar (3)
26.3
37.3
63.7
-11.0
0%
33%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)
37.6
32.0
69.5
+5.6
61%
48%
This opponent (Niagara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Bowling Green) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Niagara win
BOWL win
no forecast
@ 1.28
NIAG win
no forecast
@ 3.70
2nd half Spread Bowling Green -6.5 · main lineActual: Niagara +6.5
BOWL -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
NIAG +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Bowling Green (regulation)
BOWL
no forecast
@ 1.32
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
NIAG
no forecast
@ 3.70
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Bowling Green -17
71.6%
2.28
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Lost
Bowling Green -16
74.5%
2.03
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
2.00
SBO
1.93
-
+29.7pp
Lost
Bowling Green -16.5
72.4%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.10
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
Bowling Green -15.5
75.3%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
+28.2pp
Lost
Bowling Green -15
77.3%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+27.7pp
Lost
Bowling Green -14.5
77.9%
1.84
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
+25.8pp
Lost
Bowling Green -12.5
82.7%
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Bowling Green -12
84.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Push
Bowling Green -14
79.9%
1.76
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.74
-
+25.5pp
Lost
Bowling Green -11.5
84.8%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Bowling Green -13
82.3%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Bowling Green -13.5
80.4%
1.71
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Bowling Green -11
86.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 80
73.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
Bowling Green -10.5
86.7%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Bowling Green over 79.5
74.6%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Bowling Green over 80.5
71.3%
1.89
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+22.3pp
Won
Bowling Green -10
88.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Bowling Green -9.5
88.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Bowling Green over 81
70.2%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Bowling Green -9
89.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Bowling Green over 78.5
77.8%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Bowling Green -8.5
90.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Bowling Green -8
91.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Bowling Green over 77.5
80.7%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Bowling Green over 76.5
83.3%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Bowling Green -7.5
91.4%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Bowling Green -7
92.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Bowling Green over 75.5
85.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Bowling Green -6.5
92.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Bowling Green over 73.5
89.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Bowling Green over 71.5
92.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Bowling Green -4.5
94.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Bowling Green (regulation)
96.9%
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Bowling Green over 72.5
91.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Niagara under 68.5
71.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Lost
Niagara under 69.5
75.1%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Niagara under 71.5
81.0%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Niagara under 70.5
78.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Niagara under 72.5
83.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Lost
Niagara under 73.5
85.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Bowling Green win
97.4%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Pinnacle
1.06
Bet365
1.05
+6.8pp
Won
Niagara under 74.5
87.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
Bowling Green +6.5
99.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Niagara under 79.5
95.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Niagara under 76.5
91.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Niagara under 80.5
95.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Niagara under 78.5
94.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Niagara under 77.5
92.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Niagara under 75.5
89.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Over 139.5
71.9%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 140
71.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 139
73.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 126.5
91.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
77.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 171.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Bowling Green under 99.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Bowling Green under 97.5
87.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Niagara over 51.5
87.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Niagara over 52.5
84.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Under 161.5
78.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Lost
Bowling Green under 95.5
83.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Niagara over 53.5
82.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Niagara over 54.5
79.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Niagara over 55.5
76.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Niagara over 56.5
73.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Bowling Green under 93.5
77.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Niagara over 57.5
70.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Bowling Green under 91.5
71.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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