Butler faces Pittsburgh on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Butler at 78% versus Pittsburgh's 22% due to Butler's 2-1 record, 92.0 points per game and 75.0 allowed, and Pittsburgh's undefeated 3-0 record, 85.7 points per game and 64.7 allowed; the projection is 81-72 for a total of 152.2 points. Butler has gone 2-0 at home, averaging 97.5 points and conceding 62.5, while Pittsburgh has a 1-0 road record with 82.0 points and 76.0 allowed; in the last five games Butler won three and lost two, with a recent 81-100 loss to Boise State, a 99-65 win over Fairleigh Dickinson and a 96-60 win over Lafayette, whereas Pittsburgh won four of five, including 82-76 over Penn State, 80-61 over Buffalo and 95-57 over Rider. Their only prior meeting was a 68-62 Pittsburgh win in 2012. The spread is -3.0 with a 72% chance Butler covers, the total line is 157.0 with a 38% chance of the over, and the overtime probability is 4%. The game ends with Butler's 81-72 win projected.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Butler winLost
78.4%fair 1.28
Best odds1.64
Implied59.0%
Edge+19.3pp
Pittsburgh winWon
21.6%fair 4.62
Best odds2.38
Implied41.0%
Edge-19.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Butler) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
46.3%
@ 1.44-17.9pp
Under 153.5
53.7%
@ 2.62+17.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.55
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
34.6%
@ 1.90-15.7pp
Under 158.5
65.4%
@ 1.95+15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
24.3%
@ 2.40-15.0pp
Under 163.5
75.7%
@ 1.67+15.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
Under
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Butler total 77Actual: Butler under 77
Over 77
64.4%
Under 77
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Butler total 81 · main lineActual: Butler under 81
Over 81
48.2%
@ 1.85-2.1pp
Under 81
51.8%
@ 1.87+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Butler total 85Actual: Butler under 85
Over 85
32.2%
Under 85
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pittsburgh total 74Actual: Pittsburgh over 74
Over 74
40.1%
Under 74
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pittsburgh total 78 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh under 78
Over 78
25.8%
@ 1.85-24.5pp
Under 78
74.2%
@ 1.87+24.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Pittsburgh total 81.5Actual: Pittsburgh under 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Butler -6Actual: Pittsburgh +6
BUTL -6
61.2%
@ 2.25+20.1pp
PITT +6
38.8%
@ 1.57-20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Bet365
2.25
PITT
Bet365
1.57
Spread Butler -3 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh +3
BUTL -3
71.8%
@ 1.89+20.9pp
PITT +3
28.2%
@ 1.96-20.9pp
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
PITT
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
Spread Butler 0Actual: Pittsburgh 0
BUTL 0
78.4%
PITT 0
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
No market prices yet.
PITT
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ButlerPittsburgh
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Pittsburgh under 79
77.2%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 78
74.2%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 79.5
77.9%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 78.5
75.0%
1.82
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+22.4pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 77.5
71.9%
1.89
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
+22.3pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 80.5
80.6%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Butler (regulation)
76.1%
1.64
Betano
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.62
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Butler -3
71.8%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+20.9pp
Lost
Pittsburgh under 77
70.9%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Under 162
73.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Under 163
75.2%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Butler -2
75.3%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Under 162.5
73.8%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
-
+19.5pp
Won
Butler +1
79.9%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Butler -2.5
72.6%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
+19.3pp
Lost
Butler win
78.4%
1.59
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.58
+19.3pp
Lost
Butler -1
77.9%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Butler +2
82.5%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Butler +1.5
80.3%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
Butler +2.5
83.0%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
Butler -1.5
76.2%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Butler +3
84.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Butler +3.5
84.8%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Butler +4
86.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
Butler +4.5
86.8%
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Butler +5.5
88.6%
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Lost
Under 161
71.2%
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.66
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.8%
1.69
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
+15.2pp
Won
Under 163.5
75.7%
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Under 168
83.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 164.5
77.5%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Under 168.5
84.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Butler +6.5
90.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Under 165
78.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Under 165.5
79.3%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Under 164
77.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Under 167.5
82.5%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
80.9%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Under 166
80.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Under 167
82.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Under 170.5
86.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Butler +11.5
95.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
Under 175.5
91.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Butler +16.5
98.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Under 180.5
95.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Butler +21.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Butler under 91.5
86.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Butler over 74.5
72.7%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Butler under 86.5
72.4%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Butler over 69.5
86.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
Butler under 87.5
75.6%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Butler over 73.5
75.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
Butler over 71.5
81.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Lost
Butler under 90.5
84.0%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh +23.5
89.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Butler under 89.5
81.4%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Butler over 72.5
78.9%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
Butler over 70.5
84.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
Pittsburgh +18.5
80.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 60.5
86.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
84.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 61.5
83.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 62.5
81.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 63.5
78.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Over 140.5
76.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Lost
Pittsburgh over 64.5
75.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 65.5
72.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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