Penn State faces Pittsburgh on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model naming Penn State the favourite and predicting a decisive 81-74 win. Penn State has played two games this season, winning both, scoring 97.0 points per game and allowing 75.0, while Pittsburgh has also won both of its games, averaging 87.5 points and conceding 59.0, and sits 84th and 59th respectively in the league. Penn State's home record is 2-0, and its last five games include two wins and three losses, with recent victories over Chattanooga Mocs 97-93 and Canisius 97-57, and a loss to Northwestern 66-76. Pittsburgh's last five games show four wins and one loss, with recent wins over Buffalo 80-61 and Rider 95-57, and a loss to NC State 88-98. In the only prior meeting, Pittsburgh beat Penn State 80-46 on 21 December 2025. Pythia gives Penn State a 73% chance to win, Pittsburgh 27%, projects a total of 154.6 points with a 2.5-point spread favouring Penn State and a 78% probability that Penn State covers; the over line of 154.0 has a 51% chance, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Penn State can maintain its early-season scoring edge against Pittsburgh's defensive efficiency.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Penn State winLost
73.1%fair 1.37
Best odds2.26
Implied42.6%
Edge+30.5pp
Pittsburgh winWon
26.9%fair 3.72
Best odds1.71
Implied57.4%
Edge-30.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
63.0%
@ 1.41-2.7pp
Under 149
37.0%
@ 2.70+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Over 154
Over 154
50.7%
@ 1.89+0.5pp
Under 154
49.3%
@ 1.99-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Under
Bet365
1.99
SBO
1.96
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
38.5%
@ 2.40-0.3pp
Under 159
61.5%
@ 1.52+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Penn State total 71.5Actual: Penn State over 71.5
Over 71.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
Under 71.5
no forecast
@ 3.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.65
Penn State total 76 · main linePush
Over 76
68.8%
@ 1.87+19.1pp
Under 76
31.2%
@ 1.85-19.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Penn State total 80Actual: Penn State under 80
Over 80
53.2%
Under 80
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pittsburgh total 74Actual: Pittsburgh over 74
Over 74
48.6%
Under 74
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pittsburgh total 78 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh over 78
Over 78
33.2%
@ 1.85-16.8pp
Under 78
66.8%
@ 1.85+16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pittsburgh total 81.5Actual: Pittsburgh over 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Penn State -0.5Actual: Pittsburgh +0.5
PENN -0.5
73.1%
PITT +0.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
PENN
No market prices yet.
PITT
No market prices yet.
Spread Penn State +2.5 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh -2.5
PENN +2.5
78.5%
@ 1.95+29.1pp
PITT -2.5
21.5%
@ 1.96-29.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
PITT
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Penn State +5.5Actual: Pittsburgh -5.5
PENN +5.5
85.3%
@ 1.54+24.4pp
PITT -5.5
14.7%
@ 2.40-24.4pp
Best 5 market prices
PENN
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
PITT
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Penn StatePittsburgh
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Penn State +1
74.8%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
+31.7pp
Lost
Penn State -1
72.4%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.16
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Lost
Penn State +2
77.8%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Penn State +1.5
75.3%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.00
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.90
+30.9pp
Lost
Penn State win
73.1%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.20
WilliamHill
2.20
Bet365
2.19
BetVictor
2.15
+30.5pp
Lost
Penn State (regulation)
70.6%
2.22
Betano
2.25
Marathon Bet
2.24
1xBet
2.16
-
-
+30.2pp
Lost
Penn State -1.5
70.7%
2.23
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Penn State +2.5
78.5%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+29.1pp
Lost
Penn State +3
80.3%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Penn State +3.5
80.7%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.71
+26.8pp
Lost
Penn State +4
82.7%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Penn State +5
84.9%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Lost
Penn State +4.5
83.1%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+25.2pp
Lost
Penn State +5.5
85.3%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Penn State +6
86.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Push
Penn State +6.5
87.2%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Penn State +7
88.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Penn State +7.5
88.9%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Penn State +8
90.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Penn State +8.5
90.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Penn State +9
91.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Penn State +9.5
91.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Penn State +10
92.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Penn State +10.5
92.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Penn State over 72.5
79.3%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Penn State over 74.5
73.3%
1.61
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.57
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 79.5
71.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.65
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Penn State +12.5
94.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Penn State over 73.5
76.4%
1.53
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Pittsburgh under 80.5
74.5%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Lost
Penn State +17.5
97.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Penn State +22.5
99.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9pp
-
Under 179.5
93.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 129.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 174.5
88.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Over 134.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Penn State under 95.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Under 169.5
81.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Pittsburgh +22.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Under 164.5
73.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Penn State under 93.5
89.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 59.5
91.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 61.5
88.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 144.5
72.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Penn State under 91.5
85.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 63.5
84.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Pittsburgh +17.5
82.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Penn State under 89.5
80.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 65.5
78.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Penn State under 87.5
74.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Penn State under 86.5
71.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Pittsburgh over 67.5
72.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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