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Canisius vs Mercyhurst Lakers Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 20 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Projected 72-68
Projected total 139.8
Scheduled
Position#237
Record2-2
FormLLLWW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game81.5
Vs
64%
36%
■ CANI 64%■ MERC 36%
Pythia win probability
Position#317
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game61.2
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Canisius v Mercyhurst Lakers
20 Nov 2026
CANI v MERC
upcoming
12 Nov 2025
CANI58
MERC55
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Canisius host Mercyhurst Lakers in the NCAA. Pythia makes Canisius the favourite at 64% and projects 72-68, about 140 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Canisius are 2-2 this season (77.2 scored, 81.5 allowed a game), form LLLWW; Mercyhurst Lakers are 1-3 this season (61.2 scored, 70.8 allowed a game), form LLLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canisius win
64.4%fair 1.55
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Mercyhurst Lakers win
35.6%fair 2.81
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:36 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CanisiusUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
L
63-69
63
69
-6
H14/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
L
65-69
65
69
-4
H15/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
72-66
72
66
+6
A21/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
47-68
47
68
-21
A22/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
67-62
67
62
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
L
63-67
63
67
-4
H01/03
NCAA
Penn State
#179
L
57-97
57
97
-40
A03/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#100
L
49-88
49
88
-39
H08/11
NCAA
Hiram
#509
W
117-60
117
60
+57
H09/11
NCAA
Brown
#334
W
86-81
86
81
+5
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
24-34
39-35
27-37
38-32
40-30
32-36
24-20
23-48
29-32
38-30
30-29
33-38
26-47
31-50
14-43
35-45
57-19
60-41
44-30
42-51
141.3Avg total
68.6Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.281.5158.8-4.250%
Season at home (2)83.074.0157.0+9.050%
Season away (2)71.589.0160.5-17.550%
Last 10 (10)68.672.7141.3-4.140%
Last 5 (5)74.478.6153.0-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)61.275.6136.8-14.315%
vs Similar (8)67.063.0130.0+4.062%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)72.066.0138.0+6.0100%
This opponent (Mercyhurst Lakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mercyhurst LakersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LIU Sharks
#59
W
91-83
91
83
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
75-72 OT
75
72
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
70-61
70
61
+9
H05/03
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H07/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#146
L
43-78
43
78
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Notre Dame
#37
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Shenango
#449
W
89-50
89
50
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Penn State
#179
L
57-72
57
72
-15
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
45-45
46-38
30-34
48-46
30-30
32-32
35-28
35-33
23-19
33-32
40-42
30-37
14-36
29-42
23-38
33-45
44-25
45-25
29-33
28-39
139.4Avg total
68.5Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)61.270.8132.0-9.525%
Season at home (1)89.050.0139.0+39.0100%
Season away (3)52.077.7129.7-25.70%
Last 10 (10)68.570.9139.4-2.450%
Last 5 (5)63.072.4135.4-9.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)52.077.7129.7-25.70%
vs Similar (16)67.867.6135.4+0.250%
vs Weaker (10)74.968.6143.5+6.360%
This opponent (Canisius) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147
Over 147
32.2%
Under 147
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
22.2%
Under 152
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
14.3%
Under 157
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Canisius total 82
Over 82
15.3%
Under 82
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Canisius total 86
Over 86
7.8%
Under 86
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Canisius total 90
Over 90
3.5%
Under 90
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 62
Over 62
71.9%
Under 62
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 66
Over 66
56.9%
Under 66
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 70
Over 70
40.9%
Under 70
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Canisius -3
CANI -3
55.8%
MERC +3
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
CANI
No market prices yet.
MERC
No market prices yet.
Spread Canisius 0
CANI 0
64.4%
MERC 0
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
CANI
No market prices yet.
MERC
No market prices yet.
Spread Canisius +3
CANI +3
72.7%
MERC -3
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
CANI
No market prices yet.
MERC
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.6-0.61st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: -3.5-3.52nd half: -1.0-1.0
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.6-0.61st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: -3.5-3.52nd half: -1.0-1.0
CanisiusMercyhurst Lakers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
CanisiusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
L
24-34
24
34
-10
H14/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H15/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A21/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
W
24-20
24
20
+4
A22/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H01/03
NCAA
Penn State
#179
L
26-47
26
47
-21
A03/11
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#100
L
14-43
14
43
-29
H08/11
NCAA
Hiram
#509
W
57-19
57
19
+38
H09/11
NCAA
Brown
#334
W
44-30
44
30
+14
A13/11
NCAA
63.6Avg total
31.5Scored
32.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.432.863.2-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.633.163.7-2.533%-
Last 30 away (15)30.332.562.7-2.233%-
Last 10 (10)31.532.163.6-0.650%-
Last 5 (5)34.233.667.8+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)28.435.063.4-6.625%-
vs Similar (8)31.129.260.4+1.938%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)40.030.070.0+10.0100%-
This opponent (Mercyhurst Lakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mercyhurst LakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LIU Sharks
#59
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A28/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H05/03
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
23-19
23
19
+4
H07/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#146
L
14-36
14
36
-22
A03/11
NCAA
Notre Dame
#37
L
23-38
23
38
-15
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Shenango
#449
W
44-25
44
25
+19
H07/11
NCAA
Penn State
#179
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A12/11
NCAA
64.3Avg total
31.3Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.331.163.3+1.247%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.127.663.8+8.579%-
Last 30 away (16)28.934.162.9-5.219%-
Last 10 (10)31.333.064.3-1.730%-
Last 5 (5)30.034.864.8-4.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)22.035.757.7-13.70%-
vs Similar (16)30.631.662.2-1.138%-
vs Weaker (10)36.929.466.3+7.570%-
This opponent (Canisius) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Canisius wins
1
Mercyhurst Lakers wins
DateGameScore
13/11/25Canisius v Mercyhurst Lakers58-55
14/11/24Mercyhurst Lakers v Canisius62-52
Canisiuslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26ABrown86-81
09/11/26HHiram117-60
08/11/26HSt. Bonaventure49-88
03/11/26APenn State57-97
01/03/26HQuinnipiac63-67
28/02/26HMerrimack Warriors67-62
22/02/26AMount St. Mary's47-68
21/02/26ARider72-66
15/02/26HManhattan65-69
14/02/26HIona63-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26APenn State57-72
07/11/26HPenn State-Shenango89-50
06/11/26ANotre Dame56-83
03/11/26AMarquette43-78
10/03/26ALIU Sharks70-79
07/03/26HStonehill56-51
05/03/26HFairleigh Dickinson70-61
28/02/26AStonehill75-72 OT
27/02/26ACentral Connecticut State78-80
21/02/26HLIU Sharks91-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canisius
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game77.283.071.5
Allowed / game81.574.089.0
Point differential-4.2+9.0-17.5
Avg total158.8157.0160.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mercyhurst Lakers
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%100%0%
Points / game61.289.052.0
Allowed / game70.850.077.7
Point differential-9.5+39.0-25.7
Avg total132.0139.0129.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
6 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
7 Quinnipiac52340%68.274.8-6.6
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Central Connecticut State53260%66.876.6-9.8
2 Le Moyne42250%76.072.5+3.5
3 Chicago State52340%68.078.8-10.8
4 Fairleigh Dickinson52340%68.285.0-16.8
5 New Haven Chargers31233%58.370.0-11.7
6 Wagner41325%66.273.2-7.0
7 Mercyhurst Lakers41325%61.270.8-9.5
8 Stonehill41325%59.875.5-15.8
9 LIU Sharks5050%60.875.0-14.2
10 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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