Notre Dame faces the Mercyhurst Lakers on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Notre Dame at 85% versus 15% for Mercyhurst, reflecting Notre Dame's 1-0 record, 74.0 points per game and 72.0 allowed, and Mercyhurst's 0-1 record, 43.0 points per game and 78.0 allowed. Notre Dame has gone 2-3 in its last five games, including a 74-72 away win over Villanova and a 69-77 loss to Boston College, while Mercyhurst has a 3-2 record in its last five, with a 43-78 loss to Marquette and a 70-79 loss to LIU Sharks. The projected score is 77-66, with a total of 143.4 points. Notre Dame is the favourite to cover the -19.5 line, but only a 24% chance of doing so, and the over on the 141.5 total has a 54% probability. The game carries a 3% chance of overtime, and Notre Dame's single win this season comes from a 74-72 victory over Villanova.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Notre Dame winWon
84.6%fair 1.18
Best odds1.02
Implied94.4%
Edge-9.7pp
Mercyhurst Lakers winLost
15.4%fair 6.51
Best odds26.00
Implied5.6%
Edge+9.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 135.5Actual: Over 135.5
Over 135.5
68.3%
@ 1.39+0.6pp
Under 135.5
31.7%
@ 3.00-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.75
Over/Under 140.5 · main lineActual: Under 140.5
Over 140.5
56.6%
@ 1.94+7.4pp
Under 140.5
43.4%
@ 2.05-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Under 145.5
Over 145.5
44.4%
@ 2.30+3.6pp
Under 145.5
55.6%
@ 1.57-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
Notre Dame total 77Actual: Notre Dame over 77
Over 77
52.2%
Under 77
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notre Dame total 81 · main lineActual: Notre Dame over 81
Over 81
35.7%
@ 1.86-14.1pp
Under 81
64.3%
@ 1.85+14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Notre Dame total 85Actual: Notre Dame under 85
Over 85
21.7%
Under 85
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 55Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers over 55
Over 55
86.5%
Under 55
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 59 · main lineActual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 59
Over 59
75.6%
@ 1.85+25.6pp
Under 59
24.4%
@ 1.85-25.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Mercyhurst Lakers total 63Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 63
Over 63
61.1%
Under 63
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Notre Dame -24.5Actual: Notre Dame -24.5
NOTR -24.5
13.0%
@ 2.72-21.4pp
MERC +24.5
87.0%
@ 1.42+21.4pp
Best 5 market prices
NOTR
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.65
MERC
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Spread Notre Dame -21.5 · main lineActual: Notre Dame -21.5
NOTR -21.5
19.1%
@ 2.12-30.9pp
MERC +21.5
80.9%
@ 1.91+30.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NOTR
Bet365
2.12
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
MERC
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
Spread Notre Dame -18.5Actual: Notre Dame -18.5
NOTR -18.5
26.9%
@ 1.75-26.8pp
MERC +18.5
73.1%
@ 2.05+26.8pp
Best 5 market prices
NOTR
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.69
MERC
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Notre DameMercyhurst Lakers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mercyhurst Lakers +19
75.2%
2.06
Pinnacle
2.27
Marathon Bet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+33.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +20
77.9%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathon Bet
2.00
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +19.5
75.9%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathon Bet
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
+32.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +21
80.4%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+31.2pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +21.5
80.9%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
+30.9pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +20.5
78.5%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+30.1pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +22
82.7%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +18
72.3%
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +18.5
73.1%
2.02
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +17.5
70.1%
2.12
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +22.5
83.1%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +23
84.8%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 59
75.6%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 59.5
73.2%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.95
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
+24.8pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 58.5
76.4%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 60
72.3%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +23.5
85.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +24
86.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +24.5
87.0%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers +25
88.5%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 55.5
84.6%
1.37
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 53.5
88.8%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 57.5
79.4%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Lost
Notre Dame under 84.5
75.9%
1.48
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 56.5
82.1%
1.36
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Notre Dame under 86.5
81.8%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Notre Dame under 83.5
72.7%
1.52
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Notre Dame under 85.5
79.0%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers over 54.5
86.8%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Notre Dame under 87.5
84.3%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Notre Dame under 90.5
90.4%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Notre Dame under 89.5
88.6%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Notre Dame under 91.5
92.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Notre Dame under 93.5
94.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Notre Dame under 95.5
96.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Notre Dame under 97.5
97.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Notre Dame under 99.5
98.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Over 134.5
70.5%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 134
72.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
72.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
76.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Over 126.5
84.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Under 161.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Under 156.5
79.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Notre Dame (regulation)
82.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Notre Dame over 69.5
79.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers under 76.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Notre Dame over 70.5
76.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Notre Dame over 71.5
72.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Notre Dame win
84.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-9.7pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers under 74.5
80.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.0pp
Won
Notre Dame -4.5
74.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers under 71.5
71.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
Mercyhurst Lakers under 72.5
74.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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