Chemnitz will host Tofas in a EuroCup clash on 18 November 2026, a contest that feels almost evenly matched as the margins are razor-thin. Chemnitz enters with a 4-3 record, averaging 87.9 points and conceding 85.4, while Tofas boasts a 6-1 record, 91.7 points for and 82.9 against; both teams sit in the middle of the table, Chemnitz 13th and Tofas 6th. At home, Chemnitz is 3-1, scoring 93.5 and allowing 85.0, yet their last five games yielded only two wins, including a 90-112 loss to Basket Napoli. On the road, Tofas is 3-1, 94.0 for and 86.8 against, and their recent five outings produced four victories, highlighted by wins over Trento, Anadolu Efes and Neptunas. Historically, Tofas has won both previous meetings, the most recent being an 82-69 triumph on 29 September. Pythia rates Chemnitz as the slight favourite with a 51% chance of victory versus 49% for Tofas, projecting a 85-85 tie and a total of 170.3 points; the home line of 3.5 gives a 61% probability of covering, while the over on 175.5 carries a 37% chance. The game carries a 5% overtime probability, and the final score will hinge on whether Chemnitz can turn their recent home slump into a decisive edge.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chemnitz win
51.2%fair 1.95
Best odds2.18
Implied42.5%
Edge+8.7pp
Tofas win
48.8%fair 2.05
Best odds1.62
Implied57.5%
Edge-8.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Chemnitz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 170 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 175.5.
Over/Under 170.5
Over 170.5
48.6%
@ 1.50-12.7pp
Under 170.5
51.4%
@ 2.37+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 175.5 · main line
Over 175.5
37.0%
@ 1.86-13.3pp
Under 175.5
63.0%
@ 1.88+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 180.5
Over 180.5
26.6%
@ 2.35-12.7pp
Under 180.5
73.4%
@ 1.52+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Chemnitz total 82
Over 82
62.2%
Under 82
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chemnitz total 86 · main line
Over 86
47.2%
@ 1.70-3.4pp
Under 86
52.8%
@ 1.74+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Under
1xBet
1.74
Chemnitz total 90
Over 90
32.6%
Under 90
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tofas total 85.5
Over 85.5
47.6%
@ 1.45-14.8pp
Under 85.5
52.4%
@ 2.40+14.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Tofas total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
33.1%
@ 1.82-16.5pp
Under 89.5
66.9%
@ 1.80+16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.70
Tofas total 93.5
Over 93.5
20.9%
@ 2.42-16.1pp
Under 93.5
79.1%
@ 1.44+16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.38
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Chemnitz's side (positive = Chemnitz win). Pythia's expected margin is +0.4; Chemnitz win by 1+ in 44% of simulations.
Spread Chemnitz +0.5
CHE +0.5
51.2%
TOF -0.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
CHE
No market prices yet.
TOF
No market prices yet.
Spread Chemnitz +3.5 · main line
CHE +3.5
60.8%
@ 1.86+10.6pp
TOF -3.5
39.2%
@ 1.88-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
CHE
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.83
TOF
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Spread Chemnitz +6.5
CHE +6.5
70.5%
@ 1.60+11.2pp
TOF -6.5
29.5%
@ 2.27-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
CHE
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.45
TOF
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.18
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
ChemnitzTofas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ChemnitzLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Neptunas
#26
W
31-15
31
15
+16
H07/10
Eurocup
Bayern
#1
W
25-21
25
21
+4
H10/10
BBL
Trento
#27
W
19-17
19
17
+2
A13/10
Eurocup
Slask Wroclaw
#31
L
20-21
20
21
-1
H21/10
Eurocup
Wurzburg
#9
L
17-27
17
27
-10
A26/10
BBL
JL Bourg
#24
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H28/10
Eurocup
Ludwigsburg
#7
L
18-23
18
23
-5
H31/10
BBL
Buducnost
#10
L
22-23
22
23
-1
A03/11
Eurocup
Vechta
#13
L
24-27
24
27
-3
A07/11
BBL
Basket Napoli
#2
L
22-24
22
24
-2
H11/11
Eurocup
44.0Avg total
22.3Scored
21.7Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)
20.7
20.8
41.5
-0.1
37%
33%
Last 30 at home (14)
21.8
19.8
41.6
+2.0
50%
36%
Last 30 away (16)
19.7
21.7
41.4
-2.0
25%
31%
Last 10 (10)
22.3
21.7
44.0
+0.6
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
22.2
23.2
45.4
-1.0
20%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)
20.6
21.1
41.7
-0.5
40%
50%
vs Similar (10)
20.0
21.4
41.4
-1.4
30%
30%
vs Weaker (10)
21.4
19.9
41.3
+1.5
40%
20%
This opponent (Tofas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Chemnitz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
CHE win
49.8%
@ 2.12+5.3pp
TOF win
50.2%
@ 1.70-5.3pp
2nd half Spread Chemnitz +1.5 · main line
CHE +1.5
55.9%
@ 1.87+5.8pp
TOF -1.5
44.1%
@ 1.87-5.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 85.5 · main line
Over
44.7%
@ 1.85-6.0pp
Under
55.3%
@ 1.90+6.0pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
CHE
47.8%
@ 2.15+5.1pp
Draw
4.2%
@ 18.50-0.8pp
TOF
48.1%
@ 1.75-4.3pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 61.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Chemnitztheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Chemnitz: 83.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.0
22.6
55.1%
54.0%
45.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.6
7.8
31.7%
34.0%
23.4
🏀Free throws
20.1
14.7
73.1%
75.6%
14.7
Their opponents take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Tofastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Tofas: 81.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
34.9
16.9
48.4%
54.0%
33.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.5
10.2
37.1%
34.0%
30.6
🏀Free throws
23.4
17.0
72.6%
75.6%
17.0
Their opponents take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Chemnitztheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Chemnitz: 81.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.3
20.7
55.5%
54.0%
41.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.7
8.9
33.4%
34.0%
26.7
🏀Free throws
19.1
13.6
71.4%
75.6%
13.6
Their opponents take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Tofastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Tofas: 86.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.5 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.7 points a game
49%
32%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.0
18.8
52.1%
54.0%
37.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.6
11.2
37.8%
34.0%
33.6
🏀Free throws
20.4
15.3
74.9%
75.6%
15.3
Their opponents take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Chemnitz
LLLWWLWWLW
Tofas
WWWWLWLLWW
#13
League position
#6
+4.0
Net rating
-1.4
94.5
Offensive rating
92.8
90.5
Defensive rating
94.2
52.0%
Effective FG%
52.7%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
16.6%
Turnover %
17.6%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.32
31.7%
3-point %
29.2%
60.4%
Assist %
59.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%
Profile
■ Chemnitz■ Tofas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 32 teams: scroll the table.
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