Cincinnati hosts Minnesota on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Bearcats the clear favourite, rating them 90% to win because both teams are undefeated with identical 2-0 records, yet Cincinnati's points per game of 80.0 versus Minnesota's 80.5 is matched by a stronger defensive average of 58.5 allowed per game compared with Minnesota's 56.0, and the model's 90% probability reflects this edge; the Bearcats have also won both of their home games, 81-64 over Wisc. Green Bay and 79-53 over American University, and their last five games show three wins and two losses, while the Gophers have won 76-62 over St. Thomas (Minn.) and 85-50 over North Dakota, also ending with a 3-2 record in their last five. In their head-to-head history the two teams have met once, with the most recent meeting recorded as a 78-63 win for Cincinnati. Pythia projects a 78-63 score, a total of 140.6 points, and gives Cincinnati a 76% chance to cover the -7.0 spread and a 44% chance for the over on the 143.0 total, with a 2% overtime probability. The game will hinge on whether Minnesota can keep the Bearcats' defence in check.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 80.0 | 58.5 | 138.5 | +21.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 80.0 | 58.5 | 138.5 | +21.5 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.3 | 67.1 | 143.4 | +9.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.2 | 64.4 | 136.6 | +7.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 61.8 | 74.8 | 136.6 | -13.0 | 20% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 72.4 | 67.3 | 139.8 | +5.1 | 42% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 78.2 | 65.2 | 143.4 | +13.1 | 77% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 80.5 | 56.0 | 136.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 80.5 | 56.0 | 136.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 68.5 | 65.1 | 133.6 | +3.4 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 68.4 | 65.4 | 133.8 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 67.6 | 75.5 | 143.2 | -7.9 | 31% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 69.7 | 68.9 | 138.6 | +0.9 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 72.1 | 58.3 | 130.4 | +13.8 | 70% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 67.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.1 | 30.9 | 66.0 | +4.1 | 63% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 37.7 | 28.5 | 66.2 | +9.2 | 94% | 59% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 31.6 | 34.1 | 65.7 | -2.5 | 23% | 46% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.1 | 31.7 | 67.8 | +4.4 | 80% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.0 | 28.6 | 60.6 | +3.4 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 30.4 | 32.2 | 62.6 | -1.8 | 40% | 20% |
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 33.0 | 30.6 | 63.6 | +2.4 | 58% | 42% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 38.8 | 30.8 | 69.5 | +8.0 | 77% | 77% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 67.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.1 | 30.4 | 63.4 | +2.7 | 57% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (20) | 34.7 | 29.4 | 64.1 | +5.3 | 75% | 20% |
| Last 30 away (10) | 29.8 | 32.3 | 62.1 | -2.5 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.1 | 30.0 | 63.1 | +3.1 | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.8 | 29.6 | 65.4 | +6.2 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 32.2 | 32.3 | 64.5 | -0.1 | 38% | 31% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 33.0 | 32.0 | 65.0 | +1.0 | 43% | 29% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 34.2 | 26.7 | 60.9 | +7.5 | 90% | 20% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati -9 | 70.3% | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.20 | - | - | - | +30.5pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -8 | 73.5% | 2.05 | 2.19 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.00 | - | +29.8pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -8.5 | 71.3% | 2.12 | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 2.02 | - | +29.6pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -7.5 | 74.3% | 1.93 | 2.09 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.85 | +28.4pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -7 | 76.5% | 1.91 | 1.99 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.87 | - | +28.0pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -6.5 | 77.2% | 1.81 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.75 | +26.2pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -6 | 79.3% | 1.78 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.71 | - | +26.2pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -5 | 81.9% | 1.65 | 1.68 | 1.62 | - | - | - | +24.9pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -5.5 | 79.9% | 1.71 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.72 | 1.69 | 1.68 | +24.7pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -4.5 | 82.4% | 1.58 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 1.57 | - | - | +24.0pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -4 | 84.4% | 1.54 | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | +24.0pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 69 | 73.7% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +23.7pp | Won |
| Minnesota under 69.5 | 74.5% | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.75 | - | - | - | +22.8pp | Won |
| Cincinnati -3.5 | 84.7% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +22.7pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 68.5 | 71.3% | 1.87 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.85 | +22.4pp | Won |
| Cincinnati (regulation) | 88.6% | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | - | - | +22.1pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -3 | 86.3% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +21.8pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -2.5 | 86.6% | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +21.3pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati -2 | 88.5% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +21.0pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 68 | 70.3% | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.87 | - | - | - | +20.8pp | Won |
| Minnesota under 70.5 | 77.6% | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - | +20.8pp | Won |
| Cincinnati -1.5 | 88.8% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +20.4pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 71.5 | 80.3% | 1.51 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | +19.8pp | Won |
| Cincinnati -1 | 89.9% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +19.0pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 72.5 | 82.9% | 1.42 | 1.42 | - | - | - | - | +18.9pp | Won |
| Cincinnati win | 90.0% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.30 | +18.3pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 74.5 | 87.3% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +18.0pp | Won |
| Cincinnati +1.5 | 91.1% | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati +1 | 91.0% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +16.9pp | Lost |
| Minnesota under 73.5 | 85.2% | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +16.5pp | Won |
| Cincinnati over 72.5 | 70.1% | 1.52 | 1.72 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.44 | - | +15.4pp | Lost |
| Cincinnati +2.5 | 92.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +13.6pp | Won |
| Minnesota under 75.5 | 89.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +13.0pp | Won |
| Minnesota under 77.5 | 92.2% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.13 | - | - | - | +11.4pp | Won |
| Cincinnati +7.5 | 96.6% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Minnesota under 78.5 | 93.4% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Minnesota under 79.5 | 94.5% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +7.9pp | Won |
| Under 149 | 70.3% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Under 149.5 | 71.0% | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Under 151 | 74.5% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Under 150 | 72.5% | 1.43 | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Under 150.5 | 73.0% | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Cincinnati +12.5 | 98.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +7.4pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 97.8% | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +7.2pp | - |
| Under 151.5 | 75.0% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Under 152 | 76.5% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Under 152.5 | 76.9% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Under 154.5 | 80.5% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 96.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.5pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 95.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Under 153.5 | 78.7% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 92.8% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +3.8pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 87.7% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 92.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 94.5 | 95.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Under 158.5 | 86.5% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +2.6pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 95.5 | 96.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.6pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 92.5 | 93.2% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 90.5 | 90.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 88.5 | 86.3% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -1.7pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 86.5 | 81.3% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -3.7pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 85.5 | 78.5% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | -4.6pp | Won |
| Over 123.5 | 85.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -5.0pp | Won |
| Cincinnati under 84.5 | 75.4% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -5.0pp | Won |
| Over 124.5 | 84.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -5.7pp | Lost |
| Minnesota over 51.5 | 87.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.6pp | Won |
| Minnesota over 52.5 | 84.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -6.6pp | Won |
| Over 128.5 | 77.2% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -8.9pp | Lost |
| Minnesota over 53.5 | 82.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -9.1pp | Won |
| Minnesota over 54.5 | 79.7% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -9.9pp | Won |
| Over 129.5 | 75.3% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -10.3pp | Lost |
| Minnesota over 55.5 | 76.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -12.6pp | Won |
| Minnesota +22.5 | 75.5% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -12.8pp | Won |
| Minnesota over 56.5 | 73.6% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -13.9pp | Won |
| Minnesota over 57.5 | 70.2% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -16.9pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Wisc. Green Bay | 81-64 |
| 03/11/26 | H | American University | 79-53 |
| 11/03/26 | A | UCF Knights | 65-66 OT |
| 10/03/26 | H | Utah Utes | 73-66 |
| 07/03/26 | A | TCU | 63-73 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Brigham Young | 90-68 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Oklahoma State | 91-68 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Texas Tech | 68-80 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Kansas | 84-68 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Utah Utes | 69-65 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 76-62 |
| 03/11/26 | H | North Dakota | 85-50 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Rutgers | 67-72 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Northwestern | 67-66 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Indiana | 47-77 |
| 28/02/26 | H | UCLA | 78-73 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Michigan | 67-77 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Rutgers | 80-61 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Oregon | 61-44 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Washington | 57-69 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 80.0 | 80.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 58.5 | 58.5 | - |
| Point differential | +21.5 | +21.5 | - |
| Avg total | 138.5 | 138.5 | - |
| Over 144.5 | 50% | 50% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 80.5 | 80.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 56.0 | 56.0 | - |
| Point differential | +24.5 | +24.5 | - |
| Avg total | 136.5 | 136.5 | - |
| Over 144.5 | 0% | 0% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 56.5 | +45.5 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 49.5 | +41.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 104.5 | 64.0 | +40.5 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 98.0 | 59.0 | +39.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 55.0 | +37.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 101.0 | 75.0 | +26.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 50.0 | +26.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 58.5 | +21.5 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 64.0 | +18.5 | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.5 | 85.0 | +6.5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 66.5 | 60.0 | +6.5 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.0 | 68.0 | +12.0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 79.5 | 68.5 | +11.0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.5 | +10.5 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 73.0 | +7.5 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 89.5 | 84.0 | +5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 116.0 | 57.5 | +58.5 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.5 | 60.0 | +33.5 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 50.5 | +33.0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 69.0 | +30.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 54.0 | +27.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 86.5 | 61.0 | +25.5 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.5 | 56.0 | +24.5 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 | |
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 | |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 62.5 | +19.5 | |
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 74.5 | +19.5 | |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 76.0 | +14.0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 66.0 | +8.0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.0 | 77.3 | +12.7 | |
| 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 76.5 | +4.0 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 79.0 | 77.5 | +1.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 31 | 61 | |
| 30 | 33 | 63 |
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