Crvena zvezda face Cedevita Olimpija in the ABA League on 15 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 87% due to their 5-1 record, 93.2 points per game and 83.5 allowed, placing them third in the standings, while Cedevita Olimpija sit fifth with a 4-2 record, 85.5 points per game and 80.0 allowed. Crvena zvezda have been flawless at home, 3-0 with 97.3 points per game and 84.3 allowed, and have won four of their last five games, including a 91-80 victory over Slovan Bratislava and a 62-57 win away at Olympiacos; they suffered a 84-105 loss to Real Madrid away on 12 November. Cedevita Olimpija have won two of three road games, averaging 82.3 points and 74.0 allowed, and have also won four of five recent games, with wins over Rostock, Borac Mozzart and Tortona. In the last ten meetings Crvena zvezda lead 6-4, most recently beating Cedevita Olimpija 95-86 on 15 May 2026. The model projects a 90-76 score, 165.9 total points, a home line of -11.0 with a 58% chance of covering, an over line of 169.0 with a 42% chance of the over, and a 3% chance of overtime. The next game will decide whether Crvena zvezda can extend their home dominance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Crvena zvezda win
87.4%fair 1.14
Best odds1.15
Implied82.8%
Edge+4.5pp
Cedevita Olimpija win
12.6%fair 7.91
Best odds6.03
Implied17.2%
Edge-4.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 168.5.
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
55.7%
@ 1.50-5.3pp
Under 163.5
44.3%
@ 2.35+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 168.5 · main line
Over 168.5
43.1%
@ 1.93-6.4pp
Under 168.5
56.9%
@ 2.05+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 173.5
Over 173.5
31.2%
@ 2.37-8.1pp
Under 173.5
68.8%
@ 1.62+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.30
Bet365
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
📊 3. Team Totals
Crvena zvezda total 85.5
Over 85.5
66.1%
@ 1.42+1.2pp
Under 85.5
33.9%
@ 2.75-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.42
Crvena zvezda total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
50.3%
@ 1.85-0.1pp
Under 89.5
49.7%
@ 1.85+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.74
Crvena zvezda total 93.5
Over 93.5
34.5%
@ 2.52-2.7pp
Under 93.5
65.5%
@ 1.57+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.35
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Cedevita Olimpija total 74.5
Over 74.5
57.0%
@ 1.40-8.4pp
Under 74.5
43.0%
@ 2.85+8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.45
Cedevita Olimpija total 78.5 · main line
Over 78.5
40.8%
@ 1.85-9.6pp
Under 78.5
59.2%
@ 1.85+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.70
Under
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.74
Cedevita Olimpija total 82.5
Over 82.5
26.3%
@ 2.52-11.0pp
Under 82.5
73.7%
@ 1.57+11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.34
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Crvena zvezda's side (positive = Crvena zvezda win). Pythia's expected margin is +13.1; Crvena zvezda win by 1+ in 81% of simulations.
Spread Crvena zvezda -14
CZV -14
46.7%
@ 2.30+5.6pp
COL +14
53.3%
@ 1.61-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
CZV
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.20
COL
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.60
Spread Crvena zvezda -11 · main line
CZV -11
57.8%
@ 1.92+8.1pp
COL +11
42.2%
@ 1.90-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
CZV
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
COL
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.86
SBO
1.81
Spread Crvena zvezda -8
CZV -8
68.4%
@ 1.52+7.2pp
COL +8
31.6%
@ 2.40-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
CZV
Bet365
1.52
COL
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Crvena zvezdaCedevita Olimpija
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
W
27-18
27
18
+9
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
L
21-31
21
31
-10
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
L
20-36
20
36
-16
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
34-15
34
15
+19
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
19-15
19
15
+4
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#8
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
W
19-11
19
11
+8
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
L
20-38
20
38
-18
A12/11
Euroleague
47.3Avg total
24.5Scored
22.8Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 42.75
Last 30 (30)
23.1
23.0
46.1
+0.1
50%
70%
Last 30 at home (15)
24.6
21.8
46.4
+2.8
67%
73%
Last 30 away (15)
21.6
24.3
45.9
-2.7
33%
67%
Last 10 (10)
24.5
22.8
47.3
+1.7
70%
80%
Last 5 (5)
23.0
22.0
45.0
+1.0
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
25.0
27.0
52.0
-2.0
0%
100%
vs Similar (14)
22.4
24.9
47.3
-2.4
43%
79%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)
23.6
21.1
44.7
+2.5
60%
60%
This opponent (Cedevita Olimpija) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
CZV win
75.7%
@ 1.38+8.2pp
COL win
24.3%
@ 2.87-8.2pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
CZV
73.1%
@ 1.42+9.1pp
Draw
3.5%
@ 17.50-1.7pp
COL
23.4%
@ 2.95-7.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Crvena zvezdatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Crvena zvezda: 78.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.7 points a game
52%
29%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.7
19.9
51.4%
57.4%
39.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.0
8.2
30.4%
33.1%
24.6
🏀Free throws
19.1
14.0
73.3%
73.2%
14.0
Their opponents take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Their opponents take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of those shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Crvena zvezdatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Crvena zvezda: 73.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.3 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.7 points a game
52%
29%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
31.3
17.7
56.4%
57.4%
35.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.3
8.9
34.0%
33.1%
26.8
🏀Free throws
15.8
11.7
74.3%
73.2%
11.7
Their opponents take 57.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Their opponents take 56.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Crvena zvezda
LWWWWWWLWW
Cedevita Olimpija
WWWWLLLWLL
#3
League position
#5
+14.0
Net rating
-2.9
106.5
Offensive rating
92.3
92.5
Defensive rating
95.2
59.7%
Effective FG%
48.5%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
13.2%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.41
37.9%
3-point %
29.7%
71.3%
Assist %
49.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%
Profile
■ Crvena zvezda■ Cedevita Olimpija
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.
PythiaBasketballBETA
Crvena zvezda
Dubai
Partizan
Buducnost
Spartak Subotica
KK Bosna
Siroki Brijeg
Slovan Bratislava
Borac Mozzart
Igokea
Cluj-Napoca
Zadar
Cibona
Vienna Basket
Mega Basket
FMP Beograd
Perspektiva Ilirija
KK Krka Novo mesto
Studentski Centar