PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:30
Projected 114-116
Projected total 229.0
Scheduled
Position#13
Record7-5
FormLWWWL
Points / game113.2
Allowed / game112.2
Dallas Mavericks
USA
Vs
44%
56%
■ DAL 44%■ GSW 56%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.2/10
Below normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Golden State Warriors
USA
Position#10
Record8-5
FormWWWLL
Points / game116.7
Allowed / game112.4
USANBA· American Airlines Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors
02 Mar 2027
DAL v GSW
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
DAL v GSW
upcoming
23 Mar 2026
DAL131
GSW137
22 Jan 2026
DAL123
GSW115
12 Feb 2025
DAL111
GSW107
05 Apr 2024
DAL108
GSW106
13 Mar 2024
DAL109
GSW99
22 Mar 2023
DAL125
GSW127
29 Nov 2022
DAL116
GSW113
24 May 2022
DAL119
GSW109
22 May 2022
DAL100
GSW109
03 Mar 2022
DAL122
GSW113
05 Jan 2022
DAL99
GSW82
06 Feb 2021
DAL134
GSW132
04 Feb 2021
DAL116
GSW147
20 Nov 2019
DAL142
GSW94
13 Jan 2019
DAL114
GSW119
17 Nov 2018
DAL112
GSW109
03 Jan 2018
DAL122
GSW125
23 Oct 2017
DAL103
GSW133
21 Mar 2017
DAL87
GSW112
18 Mar 2016
DAL112
GSW130
30 Dec 2015
DAL114
GSW91
04 Apr 2015
DAL110
GSW123
13 Dec 2014
DAL98
GSW105
01 Apr 2014
DAL120
GSW122
27 Nov 2013
DAL103
GSW99
09 Feb 2013
DAL116
GSW91
19 Nov 2012
DAL101
GSW105
20 Apr 2012
DAL104
GSW94
20 Mar 2011
DAL101
GSW73
07 Dec 2010
DAL105
GSW100
03 Feb 2010
DAL110
GSW101
24 Nov 2009
DAL103
GSW111
25 Mar 2009
DAL128
GSW106
28 Jan 2009
DAL117
GSW93
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Dallas Mavericks host Golden State Warriors on 18 November 2026 in a matchup that the Pythia model sees as a close contest, favouring the Warriors with a 56% chance of victory against the Mavericks' 44%. The Mavericks have gone 7-5 this season, averaging 113.2 points and allowing 112.2, while the Warriors are 8-4, scoring 119.3 and conceding 111.5; the Mavericks are 5-2 at home with 115.6 points and 108.4 allowed, whereas the Warriors are 2-3 on the road, averaging 117.6 points and 120.2 allowed. In the last five games the Mavericks won three and lost two, including a 125-122 home win over Indiana and a 130-93 home victory over Brooklyn, while the Warriors won four of five, dropping a 108-115 loss to Houston but then routing New Orleans 138-87 and Orlando 126-119. Their head-to-head record is even at 5-5, with the Warriors' last meeting ending 137-131 on 23 March 2026. Pythia projects a 114-116 score, 229 total points, a 6% chance of overtime, and a 44% probability that the Mavericks will cover the home line.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dallas Mavericks win
44.1%fair 2.27
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Golden State Warriors win
55.9%fair 1.79
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
106-122
106
122
-16
79avg 104
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#16
W
113-109
113
109
+4
111avg 104
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
120-96
120
96
+24
114avg 104
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 104
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 104
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
111-112
111
112
-1
98avg 104
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
112-100
112
100
+12
104avg 104
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
130-93
130
93
+37
134avg 104
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
125-122
125
122
+3
120avg 104
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
94-133
94
133
-39
78avg 104
A13/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-32
29-36
29-24
17-30
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
18-19
35-35
21-27
26-34
26-32
25-36
29-22
31-22
26-28
31-29
32-19
23-24
33-26
33-20
34-25
30-22
26-31
30-35
34-27
35-29
26-34
26-33
17-36
25-30
224.0Avg total
112.7Scored
111.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)113.2112.2225.3+1.058%
Season at home (7)115.6108.4224.0+7.171%
Season away (5)109.8117.4227.2-7.640%
Last 10 (10)112.7111.3224.0+1.460%
Last 5 (5)114.4112.0226.4+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)115.1125.8240.8-10.721%
vs Similar ◀ (8)119.8115.5235.2+4.275%
vs Weaker (3)114.0102.7216.7+11.367%
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#12
W
134-114
134
114
+20
102avg 105
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
W
119-114
119
114
+5
93avg 105
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
W
112-95
112
95
+17
102avg 105
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
124-112
124
112
+12
88avg 105
H02/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
116-113
116
113
+3
92avg 105
H03/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#16
W
120-100
120
100
+20
126avg 105
H06/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
126-119 OT
126
119
+7
128avg 105
H08/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
138-87
138
87
+51
144avg 105
H10/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
108-115
108
115
-7
97avg 105
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
85-123
85
123
-38
69avg 105
A14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-32
32-24
40-28
34-30
30-23
34-25
29-33
26-33
15-38
38-15
32-27
27-15
29-37
34-20
29-28
32-27
19-31
32-26
42-36
23-20
26-29
27-24
38-23
29-24
31-19
26-22
20-37
33-32
35-20
37-23
40-22
26-22
20-35
31-21
28-29
29-30
14-38
19-25
27-34
25-26
227.4Avg total
118.2Scored
109.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.7112.4229.1+4.362%
Season at home (7)120.6105.3225.9+15.386%
Season away (6)112.2120.7232.8-8.533%
Last 10 (10)118.2109.2227.4+9.080%
Last 5 (5)115.4108.8224.2+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)104.2118.4222.6-14.112%
vs Similar ◀ (10)111.5115.7227.2-4.230%
vs Weaker (12)123.0114.2237.2+8.883%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%0%1801%1851%1902%1954%2005%2057%2109%21510%22010%22511%23010%2358%2407%2455%2503%2552%2601%2651%2701%2750%2800%285
0%1801%1904%2007%21010%22011%2308%2405%2502%2601%2700%280
Pythia expects about 229 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 230-234 (11%).
Over/Under 220
Over 220
68.1%
Under 220
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225
Over 225
57.7%
Under 225
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230
Over 230
46.7%
Under 230
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Dallas Mavericks total 109
Over 109
64.8%
Under 109
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dallas Mavericks total 113
Over 113
51.3%
Under 113
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dallas Mavericks total 117
Over 117
37.8%
Under 117
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Golden State Warriors total 107.5
Over 107.5
74.9%
Under 107.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Golden State Warriors total 111.5
Over 111.5
63.1%
Under 111.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Golden State Warriors total 115.5
Over 115.5
49.9%
Under 115.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-391%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-186%-157%-128%-99%-68%-35%+08%+38%+66%+95%+124%+153%+182%+211%+241%+271%+300%+33
1%-361%-303%-245%-187%-129%-65%+08%+65%+123%+181%+241%+30
Margin from Dallas Mavericks's side (positive = Dallas Mavericks win). Pythia's expected margin is -2.0; Dallas Mavericks win by 1+ in 39% of simulations.
Spread Dallas Mavericks -3
DAL -3
37.6%
GSW +3
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
DAL
No market prices yet.
GSW
No market prices yet.
Spread Dallas Mavericks 0
DAL 0
44.1%
GSW 0
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
DAL
No market prices yet.
GSW
No market prices yet.
Spread Dallas Mavericks +3
DAL +3
50.4%
GSW -3
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
DAL
No market prices yet.
GSW
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +8.5+8.5Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +2.5+2.5
-11-5+0+5+11Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +8.5+8.5Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +2.5+2.5
Dallas MavericksGolden State Warriors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#16
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
66-46
66
46
+20
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
56-66
56
66
-10
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A13/11
NBA
114.5Avg total
55.7Scored
58.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.260.9119.1-2.737%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.260.3120.5-0.140%-
Last 30 away (15)56.161.5117.6-5.333%-
Last 10 (10)55.758.8114.5-3.130%-
Last 5 (5)56.460.8117.2-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)56.263.6119.8-7.426%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)62.657.8120.4+4.962%-
vs Weaker (3)58.752.3111.0+6.333%-
This opponent (Golden State Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Golden State WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#12
W
60-56
60
56
+4
A27/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
W
64-48
64
48
+16
A29/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
63-57
63
57
+6
H02/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H03/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#16
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H06/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H08/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
72-43
72
43
+29
H10/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
33-63
33
63
-30
A14/11
NBA
108.4Avg total
55.7Scored
52.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.856.6111.4-1.830%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.554.8111.3+1.736%-
Last 30 away (16)53.258.2111.4-4.925%-
Last 10 (10)55.752.7108.4+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)53.251.2104.4+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)50.457.2107.6-6.925%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)52.456.8109.2-4.410%-
vs Weaker (12)59.756.0115.7+3.750%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 119.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.530.1
57.3%
54.0%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.413.5
37.1%
35.1%40.5
🏀 Free throws23.818.6
78.2%
77.2%18.6
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Golden State Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Golden State Warriors: 116.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers50.1 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.123.6
53.5%
54.0%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.716.7
41.0%
35.1%50.1
🏀 Free throws23.819.0
79.8%
77.2%19.0
They take 84.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dallas Mavericks
LWWWLLWWWL
Golden State Warriors
LLWWWWWWWW
#13
League position
#10
+6.0
Net rating
+3.0
112.7
Offensive rating
112.8
106.8
Defensive rating
109.8
56.6%
Effective FG%
57.4%
51.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.5%
15.4%
Turnover %
15.8%
31.0%
Off. rebound %
19.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.1%
3-point %
41.0%
63.1%
Assist %
69.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence112.7 · 112.8Defence106.8 · 109.8Shooting56.6% · 57.4%3-point %37.1% · 41.0%Ball care15.4% · 15.8%Off. rebounds31.0% · 19.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 80%
■ Dallas Mavericks   ■ Golden State Warriors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Dallas Mavericks wins
5
Golden State Warriors wins
DateGameScore
24/03/26Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors131-137 OT
23/01/26Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors123-115
25/12/25Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks126-116
23/02/25Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks126-102
13/02/25Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors111-107
16/12/24Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks133-143
13/11/24Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks120-117
06/04/24Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors108-106
03/04/24Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks104-100
14/03/24Dallas Mavericks v Golden State Warriors109-99
Dallas Maverickslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-133
10/11/26HIndiana Pacers125-122
09/11/26HBrooklyn Nets130-93
07/11/26HUtah Jazz112-100
05/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs111-112
03/11/26HSacramento Kings100-115
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109
25/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs106-122
Golden State Warriorslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs85-123
12/11/26AHouston Rockets108-115
10/11/26HNew Orleans Pelicans138-87
08/11/26HOrlando Magic126-119 OT
06/11/26HMiami Heat120-100
03/11/26HPhoenix Suns116-113
02/11/26HLos Angeles Clippers124-112
31/10/26HLos Angeles Lakers112-95
29/10/26AMinnesota Timberwolves119-114
27/10/26ADenver Nuggets134-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL58%
HomeWLWWW71%
AwayLWWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %58%71%40%
Points / game113.2115.6109.8
Allowed / game112.2108.4117.4
Point differential+1.0+7.1-7.6
Avg total225.3224.0227.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Golden State Warriors
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL62%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %62%86%33%
Points / game116.7120.6112.2
Allowed / game112.4105.3120.7
Point differential+4.3+15.3-8.5
Avg total229.1225.9232.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%57%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Minnesota Timberwolves129375%119.3105.9+13.4
7 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
8 Detroit Pistons118373%115.5107.8+7.7
9 Memphis Grizzlies128467%119.9111.8+8.1
10 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
11 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
12 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
13 Dallas Mavericks127558%113.2112.2+1.0
14 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
15 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
16 Miami Heat126650%117.2120.1-2.9
17 Cleveland Cavaliers136746%116.8115.8+1.0
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans134931%116.5125.6-9.2
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
27 Chicago Bulls112918%114.4127.7-13.4
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.