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Denizli Basket vs Benfica Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 84-85
Projected total 168.3
Scheduled
Position#31
Record2-4
FormLLLLL
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game83.5
Vs
47%
53%
■ DEN 47%■ BEN 53%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.9/10
Around normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#6
Record5-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game94.3
Allowed / game83.8
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 7· Pamukkale Üniversitesi Spor Salonu
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Denizli Basket will host Benfica on 17 November 2026 in the FIBA Europe Cup, a contest where the edge is razor thin as both teams have only a single game to prove their worth. Denizli's six-game season record of 2-4, with 81.5 points scored and 83.5 allowed per game, places them 31st in the league, while Benfica's 5-1 record, 94.3 points for and 83.8 against, puts them 6th. At home Denizli has gone 1-1, averaging 79.5 points and conceding 74.5, yet their last five games have been a winless streak of five losses, including defeats to BC Prievidza, Bahcesehir Kol. and Bakken Bears. Benfica, on the other hand, has won four of their last five away games, with recent home victories over Bakken Bears, Esgueira and Absheron Lions. In the sole previous meeting, Benfica edged Denizli 96-91 on 14 October 2026. Pythia assigns a 47% chance to the home side and 53% to the visitors, naming Benfica the favourite, and projects a final score of 84-85 with a total of 168.3 points; the model sees a 5% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denizli Basket win
47.3%fair 2.11
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Benfica win
52.7%fair 1.90
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denizli BasketLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBasket
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
76-85
76
85
-9
68avg 77
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Benfica
#6
L
91-96
91
96
-5
84avg 77
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#7
L
70-75
70
75
-5
57avg 77
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#17
W
80-76
80
76
+4
77avg 77
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#1
L
76-97
76
97
-21
70avg 77
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#45
L
86-94 OT
86
94
-8
77avg 77
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Galatasaray
#5
L
74-87
74
87
-13
70avg 77
H31/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bakken Bears
#22
L
76-80
76
80
-4
no box
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Bahcesehir Kol.
#2
L
86-97
86
97
-11
no box
A08/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#23
L
73-86
73
86
-13
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-26
18-24
27-22
15-13
23-28
22-22
17-27
29-19
16-17
12-23
25-16
17-19
19-24
23-15
15-17
23-20
13-29
27-18
17-28
19-22
18-14
24-19
12-27
26-20
17-17
12-24
21-23
24-23
18-22
20-14
21-24
17-20
27-24
23-27
11-28
25-18
19-19
9-33
21-16
24-18
166.1Avg total
78.8Scored
87.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)81.583.5165.0-2.033%
Season at home (2)79.574.5154.0+5.050%
Season away (4)82.588.0170.5-5.525%
Last 10 (10)78.887.3166.1-8.510%
Last 5 (5)79.088.8167.8-9.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)77.385.1162.4-7.818%
vs Similar (9)72.874.2147.0-1.456%
vs Weaker (9)76.973.0149.9+3.967%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBenfica
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#3
L
86-93
86
93
-7
72avg 87
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#31
W
96-91
96
91
+5
87avg 87
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#6
W
92-67
92
67
+25
90avg 87
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
98-83
98
83
+15
93avg 87
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#7
W
89-72
89
72
+17
87avg 87
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
L
90-93
90
93
-3
80avg 87
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
86-72
86
72
+14
83avg 87
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
97-76
97
76
+21
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
112-78
112
78
+34
no box
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
94-79
94
79
+15
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-16
19-24
27-32
14-21
28-23
22-22
27-17
19-29
21-13
24-19
26-18
21-17
28-20
19-26
22-14
29-23
22-20
22-29
18-10
27-13
33-28
22-22
14-19
21-24
16-19
27-19
14-16
29-18
25-18
30-21
24-17
18-20
23-20
25-14
27-28
37-16
26-20
24-22
24-24
20-13
174.4Avg total
94.0Scored
80.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)94.383.8178.2+10.583%
Season at home (4)96.282.2178.5+14.0100%
Season away (2)90.587.0177.5+3.550%
Last 10 (10)94.080.4174.4+13.680%
Last 5 (5)95.879.6175.4+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)93.090.5183.5+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)92.077.6169.7+14.478%
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1251%1302%1353%1405%1457%15010%15511%16012%16512%17010%1758%1806%1854%1903%1952%2001%2050%2100%215
0%1252%1355%14510%15512%16510%1756%1853%1951%2050%215
Pythia expects about 168 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%).
Over/Under 160
Over 160
69.2%
Under 160
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
57.3%
Under 165
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
44.8%
Under 170
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Denizli Basket total 80.5
Over 80.5
61.3%
Under 80.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 84.5
Over 84.5
46.9%
Under 84.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 88.5
Over 88.5
32.9%
Under 88.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica total 76.5
Over 76.5
77.7%
Under 76.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica total 80.5
Over 80.5
64.9%
Under 80.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica total 84.5
Over 84.5
50.0%
Under 84.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-331%-301%-272%-243%-214%-185%-157%-128%-910%-69%-36%+010%+38%+67%+95%+124%+153%+182%+211%+241%+271%+30
0%-331%-273%-215%-158%-99%-310%+37%+94%+152%+211%+27
Margin from Denizli Basket's side (positive = Denizli Basket win). Pythia's expected margin is -0.9; Denizli Basket win by 1+ in 41% of simulations.
Spread Denizli Basket -3
DEN -3
39.4%
BEN +3
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
BEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Denizli Basket 0
DEN 0
47.3%
BEN 0
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
BEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Denizli Basket +3
DEN +3
55.3%
BEN -3
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
BEN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.4-3.4Q1: +5.1+5.1Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -4.1-4.1Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +4.1+4.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.4-3.4Q1: +5.1+5.1Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -4.1-4.1Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: +2.7+2.7Q4: +4.1+4.1
Denizli BasketBenfica
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denizli BasketLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Benfica
#6
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#7
L
28-40
28
40
-12
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#17
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#1
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#45
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Galatasaray
#5
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H31/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bakken Bears
#22
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Bahcesehir Kol.
#2
L
50-51
50
51
-1
A08/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#23
L
28-52
28
52
-24
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
81.5Avg total
37.6Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.339.977.2-2.633%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.036.373.3+0.750%-
Last 30 away (16)37.643.180.6-5.519%-
Last 10 (10)37.643.981.5-6.330%-
Last 5 (5)37.442.680.0-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)38.346.284.5-7.918%-
vs Similar (9)35.735.170.8+0.644%-
vs Weaker (9)37.836.774.4+1.144%-
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BenficaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#3
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A11/10
LPB
Denizli Basket
#31
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Oliveirense
#6
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H17/10
LPB
BC Prievidza
#23
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CA Queluz
#7
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A24/10
LPB
Geneva Lions
#17
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Portimonense
#11
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A31/10
LPB
Absheron Lions
#45
W
55-39
55
39
+16
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Esgueira
#12
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H07/11
LPB
Bakken Bears
#22
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
89.7Avg total
48.2Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.039.286.2+7.880%-
Last 30 at home (18)49.137.986.9+11.289%-
Last 30 away (12)43.941.285.2+2.767%-
Last 10 (10)48.241.589.7+6.790%-
Last 5 (5)50.240.690.8+9.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)49.047.596.5+1.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)46.938.785.6+8.378%-
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denizli Baskettheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denizli Basket: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.220.0
51.0%
53.4%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.28.3
35.8%
32.5%24.9
🏀 Free throws20.816.9
81.2%
72.8%16.9
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Benficatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Benfica: 90.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.025.4
52.9%
53.4%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.17.0
31.7%
32.5%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.318.2
74.9%
72.8%18.2
They take 70.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denizli Basket
LLLLLLWLLL
Benfica
WWWWLWWWWL
#31
League position
#6
-2.3
Net rating
+8.7
95.7
Offensive rating
96.7
98.0
Defensive rating
88.0
52.0%
Effective FG%
51.2%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
46.5%
15.3%
Turnover %
13.4%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.35
35.8%
3-point %
31.7%
58.3%
Assist %
54.0%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence95.7 · 96.7Defence98.0 · 88.0Shooting52.0% · 51.2%3-point %35.8% · 31.7%Ball care15.3% · 13.4%Free throws0.33 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)10% · 80%
■ Denizli Basket   ■ Benfica
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Denizli Basket wins
1
Benfica wins
DateGameScore
14/10/26Benfica v Denizli Basket96-91
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ABC Prievidza73-86
08/11/26ABahcesehir Kol.86-97
03/11/26HBakken Bears76-80
31/10/26HGalatasaray74-87
28/10/26AAbsheron Lions86-94 OT
24/10/26ATurk Telekom76-97
21/10/26AGeneva Lions80-76
18/10/26HTrabzonspor70-75
14/10/26ABenfica91-96
11/10/26AAnadolu Efes76-85
Benficalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HBakken Bears94-79
07/11/26HEsgueira112-78
04/11/26HAbsheron Lions97-76
31/10/26APortimonense86-72
28/10/26AGeneva Lions90-93
24/10/26ACA Queluz89-72
21/10/26HBC Prievidza98-83
17/10/26HOliveirense92-67
14/10/26HDenizli Basket96-91
11/10/26AFC Porto86-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denizli Basket
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %33%50%25%
Points / game81.579.582.5
Allowed / game83.574.588.0
Point differential-2.0+5.0-5.5
Avg total165.0154.0170.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %17%0%25%
Benfica
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %83%100%50%
Points / game94.396.290.5
Allowed / game83.882.287.0
Point differential+10.5+14.0+3.5
Avg total178.2178.5177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%75%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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