Benfica host Esgueira on 7 November 2026 in the LPB, and the Pythia model names Benfica the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win because of their 4-1 record, 87.4 points per game and only 75.0 allowed, plus a perfect 2-0 home record with 88.0 points scored and 69.0 allowed; Esgueira, by contrast, is 0-5 with 77.6 points per game and 95.0 allowed, and has lost all two road games with 70.0 points scored and 96.0 allowed. Benfica's last five games include a 97-76 home win over Absheron Lions, an 86-72 away win over Portimonense and a 90-93 away loss to Geneva Lions, while Esgueira's last five feature losses to CA Queluz, Oliveirense and FC Porto. In their 10 previous meetings Benfica has won every encounter, most recently 107-65 on 18 April 2026. The model projects a 102-78 score, 179.8 total points, and gives Benfica a 98% chance to win, Esgueira 2%; the 172.0 over/under line has a 69% probability of an over, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. Benfica's dominance is underscored by their 4-1 season record and 10-0 head-to-head advantage.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 87.4 | 75.0 | 162.4 | +12.4 | 80% |
| Season at home (2) | 88.0 | 69.0 | 157.0 | +19.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 87.0 | 79.0 | 166.0 | +8.0 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 90.9 | 79.9 | 170.8 | +11.0 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 92.0 | 79.2 | 171.2 | +12.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (2) | 93.0 | 90.5 | 183.5 | +2.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (27) | 92.4 | 78.3 | 170.7 | +14.1 | 78% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 77.6 | 95.0 | 172.6 | -17.4 | 0% |
| Season at home (3) | 82.7 | 94.3 | 177.0 | -11.7 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 70.0 | 96.0 | 166.0 | -26.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.6 | 95.4 | 172.0 | -18.8 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.6 | 95.0 | 172.6 | -17.4 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 79.1 | 90.7 | 169.8 | -11.6 | 26% |
| vs Similar (7) | 87.7 | 91.7 | 179.4 | -4.0 | 29% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 92.0 | 95.2 | 187.2 | -3.2 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 86.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 47.5 | 40.0 | 87.5 | +7.5 | 77% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 49.9 | 38.2 | 88.1 | +11.6 | 88% | 47% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 44.4 | 42.2 | 86.6 | +2.2 | 62% | 38% |
| Last 10 (10) | 46.0 | 41.6 | 87.6 | +4.4 | 80% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 48.8 | 44.4 | 93.2 | +4.4 | 80% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (2) | 49.0 | 47.5 | 96.5 | +1.5 | 100% | 100% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (27) | 47.5 | 39.5 | 87.0 | +8.0 | 74% | 41% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 86.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.1 | 47.5 | 87.6 | -7.4 | 17% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 42.4 | 47.6 | 90.0 | -5.1 | 31% | 75% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.4 | 47.4 | 84.9 | -10.0 | 0% | 43% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.2 | 49.2 | 86.4 | -12.0 | 10% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 47.4 | 85.0 | -9.8 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 39.3 | 47.7 | 87.0 | -8.5 | 16% | 63% |
| vs Similar (7) | 41.3 | 47.6 | 88.9 | -6.3 | 14% | 57% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 42.0 | 46.2 | 88.2 | -4.2 | 25% | 50% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 170 | 74.0% | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.64 | - | - | - | +23.2pp | Won |
| Over 169.5 | 74.6% | 1.71 | 1.78 | 1.74 | 1.61 | - | - | +22.3pp | Won |
| Over 169 | 76.1% | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.57 | - | - | - | +22.1pp | Won |
| Over 168 | 78.0% | 1.59 | 1.66 | 1.53 | - | - | - | +22.1pp | Won |
| Over 168.5 | 76.5% | 1.64 | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.55 | - | - | +22.0pp | Won |
| Over 167 | 79.8% | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | - | +21.9pp | Won |
| Over 167.5 | 78.4% | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | +21.7pp | Won |
| Over 166.5 | 80.2% | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | +21.4pp | Won |
| Over 171 | 71.9% | 1.78 | 1.86 | 1.70 | - | - | - | +20.7pp | Won |
| Over 171.5 | 70.4% | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 1.67 | +20.4pp | Won |
| Over 170.5 | 72.5% | 1.74 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 1.61 | - | +20.4pp | Won |
| Over 164.5 | 83.5% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +20.2pp | Won |
| Over 165.5 | 81.9% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +20.1pp | Won |
| Esgueira over 72.5 | 70.8% | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 1.63 | - | +19.8pp | Won |
| Over 163.5 | 85.0% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +19.5pp | Won |
| Esgueira over 71.5 | 74.2% | 1.63 | 1.72 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +19.3pp | Won |
| Esgueira over 69.5 | 80.3% | 1.47 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.38 | - | - | +19.0pp | Won |
| Esgueira over 70.5 | 77.3% | 1.52 | 1.60 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +18.8pp | Won |
| Benfica over 92.5 | 83.6% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +17.3pp | Won |
| Esgueira over 68.5 | 82.9% | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +17.2pp | Won |
| Over 160.5 | 88.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +17.0pp | Won |
| Esgueira over 67.5 | 85.3% | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Won |
| Benfica over 90.5 | 88.1% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Won |
| Benfica over 94.5 | 78.1% | 1.45 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.35 | - | - | +15.9pp | Won |
| Benfica over 88.5 | 91.6% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +15.4pp | Won |
| Benfica over 96.5 | 71.7% | 1.57 | 1.67 | 1.48 | - | - | - | +14.8pp | Won |
| Benfica over 95.5 | 75.0% | 1.49 | 1.57 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +14.8pp | Won |
| Over 155.5 | 93.8% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Won |
| Benfica over 93.5 | 80.9% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +14.1pp | Won |
| Benfica over 86.5 | 94.3% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Won |
| Benfica over 84.5 | 96.2% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +11.2pp | Won |
| Over 150.5 | 96.8% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +10.1pp | Won |
| Benfica over 82.5 | 97.6% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +10.1pp | Won |
| Benfica over 80.5 | 98.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Benfica over 78.5 | 99.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Won |
| Over 145.5 | 98.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Benfica over 76.5 | 99.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Won |
| Benfica win | 97.7% | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| Benfica -6.5 | 93.6% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Benfica -10.5 | 88.2% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +1.6pp | Won |
| Benfica -15.5 | 77.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| Esgueira under 91.5 | 91.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -1.1pp | Won |
| Esgueira under 89.5 | 87.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -3.6pp | Won |
| Esgueira under 87.5 | 83.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -6.3pp | Won |
| Under 195.5 | 83.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -6.6pp | Won |
| Esgueira under 85.5 | 77.6% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -9.6pp | Won |
| Under 190.5 | 74.1% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -12.5pp | Won |
| Esgueira under 83.5 | 71.2% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -12.6pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 48.0 | 25.4 | 51.1% | 50.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 22.1 | 7.0 | 31.9% | 21.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 24.3 | 18.2 | 71.1% | 18.2 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 33.7 | 16.0 | 51.1% | 32.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.5 | 9.8 | 31.9% | 29.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.4 | 13.1 | 71.1% | 13.1 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | Esgueira v Benfica | 65-107 |
| 03/01/26 | Benfica v Esgueira | 81-72 |
| 07/03/25 | Benfica v Esgueira | 100-65 |
| 09/11/24 | Esgueira v Benfica | 85-93 |
| 14/02/24 | Benfica v Esgueira | 77-53 |
| 03/02/24 | Esgueira v Benfica | 64-100 |
| 07/10/23 | Benfica v Esgueira | 110-70 |
| 18/02/23 | Esgueira v Benfica | 61-93 |
| 30/11/22 | Benfica v Esgueira | 95-82 |
| 13/03/21 | Esgueira v Benfica | 77-92 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/26 | H | Absheron Lions | 97-76 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Portimonense | 86-72 |
| 28/10/26 | A | Geneva Lions | 90-93 |
| 24/10/26 | A | CA Queluz | 89-72 |
| 21/10/26 | H | BC Prievidza | 98-83 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Oliveirense | 92-67 |
| 14/10/26 | H | Denizli Basket | 96-91 |
| 11/10/26 | A | FC Porto | 86-93 |
| 07/10/26 | A | Bakken Bears | 91-81 |
| 03/10/26 | H | Sporting CP | 84-71 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/26 | H | CA Queluz | 93-104 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Oliveirense | 80-104 |
| 16/10/26 | H | FC Porto | 91-95 |
| 10/10/26 | A | Sporting CP | 60-88 |
| 03/10/26 | H | CD Povoa | 64-84 |
| 14/05/26 | H | Sporting CP | 73-85 |
| 10/05/26 | A | Sporting CP | 67-109 |
| 25/04/26 | A | FC Porto | 86-85 |
| 18/04/26 | H | Benfica | 65-107 |
| 11/04/26 | A | Vitoria | 87-93 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 80% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LWW | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Points / game | 87.4 | 88.0 | 87.0 |
| Allowed / game | 75.0 | 69.0 | 79.0 |
| Point differential | +12.4 | +19.0 | +8.0 |
| Avg total | 162.4 | 157.0 | 166.0 |
| Over 170.5 | 20% | 0% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 0% |
| Home | LLL | 0% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.6 | 82.7 | 70.0 |
| Allowed / game | 95.0 | 94.3 | 96.0 |
| Point differential | -17.4 | -11.7 | -26.0 |
| Avg total | 172.6 | 177.0 | 166.0 |
| Over 170.5 | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 87.4 | 75.0 | +12.4 | |
| 2 | Braga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 91.4 | 79.2 | +12.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 81.8 | 74.0 | +7.8 | |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 93.4 | 86.0 | +7.4 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.8 | 90.8 | +3.0 | |
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 74.4 | 71.8 | +2.6 | |
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 89.0 | 93.8 | -4.8 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 80.0 | 81.0 | -1.0 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.6 | 80.6 | -7.0 | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 86.2 | 89.2 | -3.0 | |
| 11 | Portimonense | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 76.0 | 88.6 | -12.6 |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 77.6 | 95.0 | -17.4 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 25 | 27 | 37 | 112 | |
| 20 | 14 | 28 | 16 | 78 |
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