PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
On 16 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits Drake against Tarleton, with Drake the clear favourite as the Pythia model assigns an 86% chance of victory, reflecting their flawless 3-0 record and an average of 85.7 points scored against 62.7 allowed, the best in the league at position 38. Drake's home form is unblemished, 3-0 at home with the same averages, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 101-48 rout of Central College and an 81-72 win over South Dakota Coyotes. Tarleton, meanwhile, sits 3-1 overall, averaging 81.2 points and conceding 70.5, but their sole road loss came in a 90-96 defeat to San Diego Toreros and they have gone 0-1 on the road, scoring 90.0 and allowing 96.0. The teams have met once before, with Drake winning 71-64 in 2022. Pythia projects a 78-66 scoreline, a total of 144.5 points, and a 3% chance of overtime; Drake has an 86% probability of covering the home line, while the over on the total has a probability of 0%. The game will be decided by Drake's dominant offensive output and Tarleton's limited road experience.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.7 | 62.7 | 148.3 | +23.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 85.7 | 62.7 | 148.3 | +23.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 72.2 | 70.3 | 142.5 | +1.9 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.6 | 67.8 | 149.4 | +13.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 72.0 | 81.6 | 153.6 | -9.6 | 8% |
| vs Similar (12) | 74.8 | 76.3 | 151.1 | -1.6 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 82.4 | 68.0 | 150.4 | +14.4 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.2 | 70.5 | 151.8 | +10.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 78.3 | 62.0 | 140.3 | +16.3 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 90.0 | 96.0 | 186.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.2 | 74.6 | 149.8 | +0.6 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.6 | 73.2 | 153.8 | +7.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 67.5 | 82.2 | 149.8 | -14.8 | 0% |
| vs Similar (15) | 70.7 | 73.7 | 144.4 | -3.1 | 27% |
| vs Weaker (7) | 86.1 | 68.6 | 154.7 | +17.6 | 86% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.3 | 35.7 | 70.0 | -1.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.9 | 34.7 | 71.6 | +2.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 31.3 | 36.9 | 68.1 | -5.6 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.1 | 32.8 | 66.9 | +1.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 30.6 | 68.2 | +7.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 33.9 | 39.0 | 72.9 | -5.1 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 33.0 | 36.2 | 69.2 | -3.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 35.2 | 29.4 | 64.6 | +5.8 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.3 | 33.2 | 68.4 | +2.1 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 37.0 | 32.2 | 69.2 | +4.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.3 | 34.2 | 67.5 | -0.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.3 | 33.2 | 67.5 | +1.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 32.0 | 68.4 | +4.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 32.2 | 36.0 | 68.2 | -3.8 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 31.2 | 31.8 | 63.0 | -0.6 | 47% | - |
| vs Weaker (7) | 43.0 | 37.0 | 80.0 | +6.0 | 57% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | South Dakota Coyotes | 81-72 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Southern Univ. | 75-68 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Central College | 101-48 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 51-72 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Belmont | 100-79 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Southern Illinois | 67-63 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 53-75 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Valparaiso | 71-74 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Southern Illinois | 61-66 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Northern Iowa | 62-86 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Alcorn State | 73-69 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Texas Dallas | 76-57 |
| 07/11/26 | A | San Diego Toreros | 90-96 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | Cameron | 86-60 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Abilene Christian | 78-84 |
| 06/03/26 | H | UT Arlington | 60-65 |
| 01/03/26 | A | California Baptist | 67-82 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Utah Valley State | 72-79 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Utah Tech | 72-80 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Southern Utah | 78-74 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 85.7 | 85.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 62.7 | 62.7 | - |
| Point differential | +23.0 | +23.0 | - |
| Avg total | 148.3 | 148.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 33% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.2 | 78.3 | 90.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.5 | 62.0 | 96.0 |
| Point differential | +10.8 | +16.3 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 151.8 | 140.3 | 186.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 25% | 0% | 100% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 | Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 64.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 |  Belmont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 73.5 | 62.2 | +11.2 |
| 5 |  Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Indiana State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.2 | 65.8 | +14.5 |
| 8 |  Evansville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 76.0 | 76.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 |  Bradley | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 59.8 | 56.4 | +3.4 |
| 10 |  Northern Iowa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 85.2 | 86.0 | -0.8 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Utah Valley State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 75.7 | +10.3 |
| 2 |  UT Arlington | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 88.2 | 70.8 | +17.4 |
| 3 | Tarleton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 70.5 | +10.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Utah | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 96.8 | 69.6 | +27.2 |
| 5 |  Abilene Christian | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 71.0 | 83.7 | -12.7 |
| 6 |  Utah Tech | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 87.2 | -6.8 |
| 7 |  California Baptist | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.8 | 77.0 | -10.2 |
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