PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Estonia vs Portugal Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 03 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 11:45
Final 65-68
14-14 18-13 13-20 20-21
Position#18
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game71.8
Allowed / game82.2
vs
Position#17
Record1-3
FormLWLLL
Points / game61.8
Allowed / game75.8
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· Xiaomi Arena
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estonia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Portugal winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
North Macedonia
#15
W
74-69
74
69
+5
no box
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
65-59
65
59
+6
no box
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-78
82
78
+4
79avg 70
A21/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
86-88
86
88
-2
81avg 70
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
84-65
84
65
+19
90avg 70
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
67avg 70
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
64-98
64
98
-34
49avg 70
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
70-72
70
72
-2
67avg 70
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
89-75
89
75
+14
81avg 70
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
64-84
64
84
-20
54avg 70
H01/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-20
17-23
21-10
17-16
17-18
24-19
9-13
15-9
19-18
19-22
19-13
25-25
25-22
17-18
21-22
23-26
22-17
16-22
20-11
26-15
19-28
24-32
21-7
11-15
12-32
17-24
15-30
20-12
21-17
21-21
19-25
9-9
23-19
31-17
23-18
12-21
13-25
14-21
22-19
15-19
152.3Avg total
75.3Scored
77.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)71.882.2154.0-10.525%
Season at home (2)67.078.0145.0-11.00%
Season away (2)76.586.5163.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)75.377.0152.3-1.750%
Last 5 (5)72.482.2154.6-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)72.780.6153.3-8.028%
vs Similar (2)79.067.0146.0+12.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)85.780.3166.0+5.367%
This opponent (Portugal) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPortugal
Date
Competition
Israel
#5
L
70-72
70
72
-2
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
W
79-77
79
77
+2
no box
A25/02
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
W
82-74
82
74
+8
78avg 62
H22/11
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
L
82-83
82
83
-1
73avg 62
A25/11
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
L
78-84
78
84
-6
69avg 62
A21/02
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
L
60-88
60
88
-28
42avg 62
H24/02
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
62-50
62
50
+12
54avg 62
A27/08
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
69-80
69
80
-11
56avg 62
H29/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
54-95
54
95
-41
41avg 62
A30/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
62-78
62
78
-16
51avg 62
H01/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
17-19
17-18
17-16
26-16
21-16
15-27
17-18
22-10
27-14
15-24
18-26
17-24
32-20
19-22
14-17
18-18
14-29
21-18
25-19
17-24
15-17
18-30
10-17
13-10
19-19
13-11
17-10
19-23
14-20
16-21
20-16
13-22
14-29
10-22
17-22
21-23
7-27
15-15
19-13
147.9Avg total
69.8Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)61.875.8137.5-14.025%
Season at home (2)65.579.0144.5-13.50%
Season away (2)58.072.5130.5-14.550%
Last 10 (10)69.878.1147.9-8.330%
Last 5 (5)61.478.2139.6-16.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)64.278.9143.1-14.720%
vs Similar (6)80.380.2160.5+0.233%
vs Weaker (14)78.467.6146.0+10.779%
This opponent (Estonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -4.9-4.9Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +0.0+0.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -4.9-4.9Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +0.0+0.0
EstoniaPortugal
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Macedonia
#15
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A21/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
29-56
29
56
-27
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
54-36
54
36
+18
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
27-46
27
46
-19
H01/09
EuroBasket
82.5Avg total
39.0Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.041.179.1-3.137%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.339.377.6-1.147%-
Last 30 away (15)37.742.880.5-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)39.043.582.5-4.540%-
Last 5 (5)39.047.286.2-8.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)37.341.478.6-4.136%-
vs Similar (2)37.041.078.0-4.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (3)44.738.783.3+6.067%-
This opponent (Portugal) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Israel
#5
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H22/02
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A25/02
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
W
49-24
49
24
+25
H22/11
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#11
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A25/11
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A21/02
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H24/02
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A27/08
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H29/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
27-51
27
51
-24
A30/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
28-50
28
50
-22
H01/09
EuroBasket
76.4Avg total
36.5Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.337.676.9+1.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.637.376.9+2.353%-
Last 30 away (15)39.137.876.9+1.360%-
Last 10 (10)36.539.976.4-3.440%-
Last 5 (5)30.442.873.2-12.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)33.138.771.8-5.640%-
vs Similar (6)41.741.383.0+0.333%-
vs Weaker (14)42.835.177.9+7.679%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.818.4
51.4%
52.4%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.3
30.7%
33.4%24.9
🏀 Free throws18.712.8
68.4%
73.1%12.8
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Portugaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Portugal: 68.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.817.8
44.7%
52.4%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.77.5
27.1%
33.4%22.5
🏀 Free throws15.810.7
67.7%
73.1%10.7
They take 67.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estonia
LWLLLWLWWW
Portugal
LLLWLLLWWL
#18
League position
#17
-2.1
Net rating
-11.6
102.5
Offensive rating
93.5
104.6
Defensive rating
105.1
49.1%
Effective FG%
43.0%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
18.2%
Turnover %
19.8%
31.6%
Off. rebound %
34.8%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.23
30.7%
3-point %
27.1%
73.8%
Assist %
66.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence102.5 · 93.5Defence104.6 · 105.1Shooting49.1% · 43.0%3-point %30.7% · 27.1%Ball care18.2% · 19.8%Off. rebounds31.6% · 34.8%Free throws0.30 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Estonia   ■ Portugal
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Estonia wins
0
Portugal wins
No previous meetings.
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/09/25HTurkey64-84
30/08/25ACzech Republic89-75
29/08/25HLatvia70-72
27/08/25ASerbia64-98
24/02/25ALithuania75-82
21/02/25HNorth Macedonia84-65
24/11/24HPoland86-88
21/11/24APoland82-78
26/02/24HLithuania65-59
23/02/24ANorth Macedonia74-69
Portugallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/09/25HLatvia62-78
30/08/25ATurkey54-95
29/08/25HSerbia69-80
27/08/25ACzech Republic62-50
24/02/25HUkraine60-88
21/02/25AIsrael78-84
25/11/24ASlovenia82-83
22/11/24HSlovenia82-74
25/02/24AUkraine79-77
22/02/24HIsrael70-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estonia
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLL0%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%0%50%
Points / game71.867.076.5
Allowed / game82.278.086.5
Point differential-10.5-11.0-10.0
Avg total154.0145.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Portugal
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLL25%
HomeLL0%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%0%50%
Points / game61.865.558.0
Allowed / game75.879.072.5
Point differential-14.0-13.5-14.5
Avg total137.5144.5130.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany440100%109.576.0+33.5
2 Turkey440100%91.067.2+23.8
3 Serbia440100%86.068.2+17.8
4 Greece43175%85.567.0+18.5
5 Finland43175%91.278.8+12.5
6 Lithuania43175%89.280.5+8.8
7 France43175%86.879.2+7.5
8 Italy43175%76.869.8+7.0
9 Israel43175%80.273.8+6.5
10 Poland43175%82.879.2+3.5
11 Spain42250%77.866.0+11.8
12 Slovenia42250%90.889.0+1.8
13 Latvia42250%75.877.2-1.5
14 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%79.281.2-2.0
15 Georgia42250%72.875.5-2.8
16 Sweden41325%83.086.0-3.0
17 Belgium41325%73.283.5-10.2
18 Estonia41325%71.882.2-10.5
19 Portugal41325%61.875.8-14.0
20 Montenegro51420%75.691.0-15.4
21 Great Britain51420%70.896.8-26.0
22 Iceland4040%72.281.2-9.0
23 Czech Republic4040%65.881.2-15.5
24 Cyprus4040%60.292.8-32.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estonia1418132065
Portugal1413202168
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.