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Estonia vs Poland Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 24 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 86-88
25-22 17-18 21-22 23-26
Position#10
Record3-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game68.7
vs
Poland 🏆
Position#24
Record5-4
FormWWLLL
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game74.8
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4· Unibet Arena
Other2023
Meetings · Estonia v Poland
24 Nov 2024
ESTO86
POLA88
25 Feb 2022
ESTO75
POLA71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estonia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Poland winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Croatia
#12
L
70-73
70
73
-3
no box
A05/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
94-62
94
62
+32
no box
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
69-90
69
90
-21
no box
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
L
71-91
71
91
-20
no box
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
79-78
79
78
+1
no box
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
W
72-71
72
71
+1
no box
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
W
74-69
74
69
+5
67avg 70
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
65-59
65
59
+6
65avg 70
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-78
82
78
+4
79avg 70
A21/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-20
13-13
19-20
22-20
24-18
25-18
29-17
16-9
21-27
15-24
13-26
20-13
13-27
24-12
24-20
21-28
16-21
25-18
15-27
15-25
24-16
13-24
18-19
24-19
17-16
11-14
15-14
29-27
19-20
17-23
21-10
17-16
17-18
24-19
9-13
15-9
19-18
19-22
19-13
25-25
151.6Avg total
75.8Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)73.768.7142.3+5.0100%
Season at home (1)65.059.0124.0+6.0100%
Season away (2)78.073.5151.5+4.5100%
Last 10 (10)75.875.8151.6+0.060%
Last 5 (5)74.471.0145.4+3.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)73.280.0153.2-6.835%
vs Similar (3)77.075.3152.3+1.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)82.078.0160.0+4.0100%
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPoland
Date
Competition
Slovenia
#4
W
90-87
90
87
+3
no box
A14/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
54-95
54
95
-41
no box
H16/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
69-82
69
82
-13
no box
A18/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
79-64
79
64
+15
no box
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
W
87-79
87
79
+8
no box
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
87-72
87
72
+15
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
80-70
80
70
+10
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
64-83
64
83
-19
61avg 69
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
71-96
71
96
-25
58avg 69
H26/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
78-82
78
82
-4
72avg 69
H21/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-26
29-13
6-24
26-24
9-15
9-19
18-30
18-31
14-19
9-17
26-18
20-28
17-15
15-22
27-8
20-19
21-18
13-19
24-19
29-23
26-21
31-17
14-19
16-15
21-27
14-15
23-16
22-12
19-16
11-19
19-27
15-21
16-25
22-22
12-22
21-27
18-19
22-19
13-19
25-25
156.9Avg total
75.9Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)78.474.8153.2+3.756%
Season at home (5)76.877.2154.0-0.440%
Season away (4)80.571.8152.2+8.875%
Last 10 (10)75.981.0156.9-5.150%
Last 5 (5)76.080.6156.6-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)75.886.2162.0-10.524%
vs Similar (9)81.674.3155.9+7.278%
vs Weaker (4)74.869.0143.8+5.875%
This opponent (Estonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
EstoniaPoland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Croatia
#12
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A05/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A21/11
EuroBasket
76.0Avg total
37.2Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.439.376.7-1.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.538.976.4-1.540%-
Last 30 away (15)37.339.777.1-2.433%-
Last 10 (10)37.238.876.0-1.630%-
Last 5 (5)36.038.074.0-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)37.239.076.2-1.838%-
vs Similar (3)38.742.080.7-3.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)38.040.078.0-2.00%-
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Slovenia
#4
W
58-39
58
39
+19
A14/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
18-34
18
34
-16
H16/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A18/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H26/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H21/11
EuroBasket
74.8Avg total
36.5Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.439.977.2-2.530%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.138.177.1+1.050%-
Last 30 away (16)35.941.477.3-5.612%-
Last 10 (10)36.538.374.8-1.830%-
Last 5 (5)40.040.080.0+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)36.440.676.9-4.224%-
vs Similar (9)39.438.477.9+1.044%-
vs Weaker (4)37.040.077.0-3.025%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 73.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.3 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.320.7
55.4%
50.6%41.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.06.7
29.0%
32.5%20.0
🏀 Free throws19.311.7
60.3%
71.4%11.7
They take 60.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 77.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.1 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.617.6
50.8%
50.6%35.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.88.9
33.2%
32.5%26.7
🏀 Free throws21.715.8
72.8%
71.4%15.8
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 3/9 games with a box score before 24 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estonia
WWWWWLLLWL
Poland
LLLWWWWLLW
#10
League position
#24
+7.0
Net rating
+4.7
102.4
Offensive rating
104.9
95.4
Defensive rating
100.2
50.8%
Effective FG%
50.4%
44.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
18.2%
Turnover %
18.0%
30.7%
Off. rebound %
28.1%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.35
29.0%
3-point %
33.2%
72.0%
Assist %
72.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence102.4 · 104.9Defence95.4 · 100.2Shooting50.8% · 50.4%3-point %29.0% · 33.2%Ball care18.2% · 18.0%Off. rebounds30.7% · 28.1%Free throws0.32 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Estonia   ■ Poland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Estonia wins
1
Poland wins
DateGameScore
21/11/24Poland v Estonia78-82
28/02/22Poland v Estonia70-68
25/02/22Estonia v Poland75-71
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/11/24APoland82-78
26/02/24HLithuania65-59
23/02/24ANorth Macedonia74-69
27/02/23ASweden72-71
24/02/23HSlovenia79-78
14/11/22AFinland71-91
11/11/22HSweden82-87
08/09/22HGreece69-90
06/09/22HGreat Britain94-62
05/09/22ACroatia70-73
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/11/24HEstonia78-82
26/02/24HNorth Macedonia71-96
22/02/24ALithuania64-83
26/02/23ASwitzerland80-70
23/02/23HAustria87-72
13/11/22ACroatia87-79
10/11/22HSwitzerland79-64
18/09/22AGermany69-82
16/09/22HFrance54-95
14/09/22ASlovenia90-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estonia
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game73.765.078.0
Allowed / game68.759.073.5
Point differential+5.0+6.0+4.5
Avg total142.3124.0151.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Poland
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL56%
HomeLWWLL40%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %56%40%75%
Points / game78.476.880.5
Allowed / game74.877.271.8
Point differential+3.7-0.4+8.8
Avg total153.2154.0152.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%40%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Italy330100%88.371.0+17.3
2 Serbia330100%75.058.7+16.3
3 France330100%74.061.3+12.7
4 Latvia330100%72.766.3+6.3
5 Estonia330100%73.768.7+5.0
6 Croatia1311285%84.567.5+17.0
7 Portugal97278%82.871.9+10.9
8 Bulgaria139469%78.173.2+4.8
9 Lithuania32167%74.765.3+9.3
10 Montenegro32167%80.372.3+8.0
11 North Macedonia96367%74.266.9+7.3
12 Turkey32167%82.776.0+6.7
13 Belgium32167%68.362.7+5.7
14 Slovenia32167%83.078.0+5.0
15 Greece32167%72.769.7+3.0
16 Israel32167%79.077.0+2.0
17 Great Britain32167%84.385.3-1.0
18 Sweden32167%75.779.0-3.3
19 Slovakia138562%73.169.3+3.8
20 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
21 Poland95456%78.474.8+3.7
22 Denmark179853%75.872.2+3.6
23 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
24 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
25 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
26 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
27 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
28 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
29 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
30 Germany31233%73.067.0+6.0
31 Bosnia & Herzegovina31233%79.776.3+3.3
32 Spain31233%68.069.7-1.7
33 Iceland31233%72.078.7-6.7
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland41325%74.283.2-9.0
36 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
37 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
38 Cyprus151147%63.180.5-17.3
39 Ukraine3030%74.384.0-9.7
40 Hungary3030%64.381.7-17.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estonia2517212386
Poland2218222688
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