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Poland vs Estonia Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 21 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 78-82
18-19 22-19 13-19 25-25
Position#24
Record5-3
FormWWWLL
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game73.9
vs
Estonia 🏆
Position#10
Record2-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game69.5
Allowed / game64.0
EuropeEuroBasketRound 3· Hala Mistrzow
Other2023
Meetings · Poland v Estonia
21 Nov 2024
POLA78
ESTO82
28 Feb 2022
POLA70
ESTO68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Poland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Estonia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPoland
Date
Competition
Ukraine
#13
W
94-86
94
86
+8
no box
A11/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#4
W
90-87
90
87
+3
no box
A14/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
54-95
54
95
-41
no box
H16/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
69-82
69
82
-13
no box
A18/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
79-64
79
64
+15
no box
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
W
87-79
87
79
+8
no box
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
87-72
87
72
+15
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
80-70
80
70
+10
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
64-83
64
83
-19
61avg 69
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
71-96
71
96
-25
58avg 69
H26/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
18-24
27-22
25-19
29-26
29-13
6-24
26-24
9-15
9-19
18-30
18-31
14-19
9-17
26-18
20-28
17-15
15-22
27-8
20-19
21-18
13-19
24-19
29-23
26-21
31-17
14-19
16-15
21-27
14-15
23-16
22-12
19-16
11-19
19-27
15-21
16-25
22-22
12-22
21-27
158.9Avg total
77.5Scored
81.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)78.573.9152.4+4.662%
Season at home (4)76.576.0152.5+0.550%
Season away (4)80.571.8152.2+8.875%
Last 10 (10)77.581.4158.9-3.960%
Last 5 (5)77.880.0157.8-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)75.686.5162.1-10.925%
vs Similar (10)82.573.0155.5+9.580%
vs Weaker (4)74.869.0143.8+5.875%
This opponent (Estonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Ukraine
#13
L
73-74
73
74
-1
no box
H03/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
L
70-73
70
73
-3
no box
A05/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
94-62
94
62
+32
no box
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
69-90
69
90
-21
no box
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
L
71-91
71
91
-20
no box
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
79-78
79
78
+1
no box
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
W
72-71
72
71
+1
no box
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
W
74-69
74
69
+5
67avg 66
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
65-59
65
59
+6
65avg 66
H26/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
14-18
26-23
12-18
16-20
13-13
19-20
22-20
24-18
25-18
29-17
16-9
21-27
15-24
13-26
20-13
13-27
24-12
24-20
21-28
16-21
25-18
15-27
15-25
24-16
13-24
18-19
24-19
17-16
11-14
15-14
29-27
19-20
17-23
21-10
17-16
17-18
24-19
9-13
15-9
150.3Avg total
74.9Scored
75.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)69.564.0133.5+5.5100%
Season at home (1)65.059.0124.0+6.0100%
Season away (1)74.069.0143.0+5.0100%
Last 10 (10)74.975.4150.3-0.550%
Last 5 (5)72.273.6145.8-1.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (27)72.980.4153.3-7.533%
vs Similar (3)77.075.3152.3+1.767%
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +0.7+0.7
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +0.7+0.7
PolandEstonia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ukraine
#13
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A11/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#4
W
58-39
58
39
+19
A14/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
18-34
18
34
-16
H16/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A18/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H26/02
EuroBasket
75.7Avg total
36.7Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.539.476.9-1.930%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.038.177.1+0.946%-
Last 30 away (17)36.440.476.8-4.018%-
Last 10 (10)36.739.075.7-2.320%-
Last 5 (5)38.839.878.6-1.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)36.140.876.9-4.619%-
vs Similar (10)40.037.077.0+3.050%-
vs Weaker (4)37.040.077.0-3.025%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ukraine
#13
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H03/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A05/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H26/02
EuroBasket
75.0Avg total
36.9Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.139.576.6-2.437%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.538.976.4-1.540%-
Last 30 away (15)36.740.176.8-3.333%-
Last 10 (10)36.938.175.0-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)36.637.874.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (27)36.939.276.1-2.337%-
vs Similar (3)38.742.080.7-3.333%-
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 77.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.5 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.517.8
51.4%
50.6%35.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.2
34.3%
32.5%27.8
🏀 Free throws20.114.2
70.8%
71.4%14.2
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 68.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.520.0
51.9%
50.6%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.06.0
27.3%
32.5%18.0
🏀 Free throws20.010.5
52.5%
71.4%10.5
They take 60.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/2 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Poland
LLWWWWLLWW
Estonia
WWWWLLLWLL
#24
League position
#10
+5.9
Net rating
+7.9
104.9
Offensive rating
98.3
99.0
Defensive rating
90.4
51.4%
Effective FG%
47.9%
49.5%
Opp. effective FG%
46.3%
18.6%
Turnover %
20.2%
27.5%
Off. rebound %
37.3%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.33
34.3%
3-point %
27.3%
72.2%
Assist %
73.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence104.9 · 98.3Defence99.0 · 90.4Shooting51.4% · 47.9%3-point %34.3% · 27.3%Ball care18.6% · 20.2%Off. rebounds27.5% · 37.3%Free throws0.33 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Poland   ■ Estonia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Poland wins
1
Estonia wins
DateGameScore
28/02/22Poland v Estonia70-68
25/02/22Estonia v Poland75-71
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/24HNorth Macedonia71-96
22/02/24ALithuania64-83
26/02/23ASwitzerland80-70
23/02/23HAustria87-72
13/11/22ACroatia87-79
10/11/22HSwitzerland79-64
18/09/22AGermany69-82
16/09/22HFrance54-95
14/09/22ASlovenia90-87
11/09/22AUkraine94-86
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/24HLithuania65-59
23/02/24ANorth Macedonia74-69
27/02/23ASweden72-71
24/02/23HSlovenia79-78
14/11/22AFinland71-91
11/11/22HSweden82-87
08/09/22HGreece69-90
06/09/22HGreat Britain94-62
05/09/22ACroatia70-73
03/09/22HUkraine73-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Poland
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game78.576.580.5
Allowed / game73.976.071.8
Point differential+4.6+0.5+8.8
Avg total152.4152.5152.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Estonia
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game69.565.074.0
Allowed / game64.059.069.0
Point differential+5.5+6.0+5.0
Avg total133.5124.0143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia220100%76.562.0+14.5
2 Italy220100%85.071.0+14.0
3 Slovenia220100%87.576.0+11.5
4 France220100%73.562.5+11.0
5 Belgium220100%66.556.5+10.0
6 Latvia220100%71.563.5+8.0
7 Estonia220100%69.564.0+5.5
8 Greece220100%73.068.0+5.0
9 Croatia1210283%84.166.8+17.3
10 Portugal86275%82.971.6+11.2
11 North Macedonia86275%75.165.0+10.1
12 Bulgaria129375%79.472.2+7.2
13 Slovakia128467%73.268.8+4.4
14 Poland85362%78.573.9+4.6
15 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
16 Denmark169756%77.272.2+5.1
17 Bosnia & Herzegovina21150%81.570.0+11.5
18 Germany21150%73.564.0+9.5
19 Lithuania21150%71.064.5+6.5
20 Iceland21150%72.570.5+2.0
21 Montenegro21150%78.077.5+0.5
22 Czech Republic21150%77.077.0+0.0
23 Great Britain21150%90.092.0-2.0
24 Turkey21150%78.081.0-3.0
25 Israel21150%75.579.0-3.5
26 Sweden21150%77.082.5-5.5
27 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
28 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
29 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
30 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
31 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
32 Georgia31233%74.078.0-4.0
33 Finland31233%77.784.0-6.3
34 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
35 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
36 Cyprus141137%63.480.9-17.4
37 Netherlands2020%83.086.0-3.0
38 Spain2020%64.068.5-4.5
39 Ukraine2020%75.083.0-8.0
40 Hungary2020%63.576.5-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Poland1822132578
Estonia1919192582
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