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Estonia vs Turkey Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 01 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 11:45
Final 64-84
13-25 14-21 22-19 15-19
Position#18
Record1-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game81.7
vs
Turkey 🏆
Position#2
Record3-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.3
Allowed / game68.3
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4· Xiaomi Arena
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estonia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Turkey winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Sweden
#33
W
72-71
72
71
+1
no box
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
W
74-69
74
69
+5
no box
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
65-59
65
59
+6
no box
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-78
82
78
+4
79avg 72
A21/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
86-88
86
88
-2
81avg 72
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
84-65
84
65
+19
90avg 72
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
67avg 72
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
64-98
64
98
-34
49avg 72
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
70-72
70
72
-2
67avg 72
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
89-75
89
75
+14
81avg 72
A30/08
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
11-14
15-14
29-27
19-20
17-23
21-10
17-16
17-18
24-19
9-13
15-9
19-18
19-22
19-13
25-25
25-22
17-18
21-22
23-26
22-17
16-22
20-11
26-15
19-28
24-32
21-7
11-15
12-32
17-24
15-30
20-12
21-17
21-21
19-25
9-9
23-19
31-17
23-18
12-21
151.8Avg total
76.1Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)74.381.7156.0-7.333%
Season at home (1)70.072.0142.0-2.00%
Season away (2)76.586.5163.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)76.175.7151.8+0.460%
Last 5 (5)76.478.4154.8-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)72.480.6153.0-8.328%
vs Similar (2)79.067.0146.0+12.0100%
vs Weaker (3)85.780.3166.0+5.367%
This opponent (Turkey) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTurkey
Date
Competition
Iceland
#25
W
76-75
76
75
+1
no box
H25/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
92-66
92
66
+26
84avg 79
H22/11
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
81-76
81
76
+5
71avg 79
A25/11
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
L
67-80
67
80
-13
56avg 79
H20/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
71-83
71
83
-12
66avg 79
A23/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#3
L
71-73
71
73
-2
64avg 79
A15/08
DBB Supercup
Czech Republic
#4
W
79-65
79
65
+14
70avg 79
H16/08
DBB Supercup
Latvia
#11
W
93-73
93
73
+20
97avg 79
A27/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
92-78
92
78
+14
95avg 79
H29/08
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
95-54
95
54
+41
101avg 79
H30/08
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-16
19-14
19-17
22-28
27-20
16-17
19-12
30-17
21-14
19-17
14-23
27-22
12-17
19-31
19-12
17-20
16-26
22-20
16-23
17-14
25-17
10-11
16-21
20-24
23-13
18-16
19-12
19-24
24-21
23-18
25-16
21-18
21-27
24-10
27-25
20-16
22-13
29-14
22-10
22-17
154.0Avg total
81.7Scored
72.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)93.368.3161.7+25.0100%
Season at home (2)93.566.0159.5+27.5100%
Season away (1)93.073.0166.0+20.0100%
Last 10 (10)81.772.3154.0+9.470%
Last 5 (5)86.068.6154.6+17.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)74.681.8156.3-7.211%
vs Similar (10)76.171.8147.9+4.350%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)86.972.5159.5+14.482%
This opponent (Estonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.5+1.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.5+1.5
EstoniaTurkey
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sweden
#33
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A21/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
29-56
29
56
-27
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
54-36
54
36
+18
A30/08
EuroBasket
81.0Avg total
39.1Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.040.978.9-2.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.339.077.3-0.747%-
Last 30 away (15)37.742.880.5-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)39.141.981.0-2.840%-
Last 5 (5)41.245.887.0-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)37.341.278.4-3.936%-
vs Similar (2)37.041.078.0-4.00%-
vs Weaker (3)44.738.783.3+6.067%-
This opponent (Turkey) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TurkeyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iceland
#25
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H25/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H22/11
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A25/11
EuroBasket
Italy
#9
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H20/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A23/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#3
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A15/08
DBB Supercup
Czech Republic
#4
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H16/08
DBB Supercup
Latvia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A27/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H29/08
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H30/08
EuroBasket
75.8Avg total
40.6Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.237.776.9+1.550%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.536.374.8+2.253%-
Last 30 away (13)40.039.579.5+0.546%-
Last 10 (10)40.635.275.8+5.480%-
Last 5 (5)43.832.075.8+11.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)36.744.280.9-7.611%-
vs Similar (10)38.134.973.0+3.260%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)42.234.977.1+7.373%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 75.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.419.2
52.7%
52.4%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.87.9
29.5%
33.4%23.7
🏀 Free throws19.713.6
68.9%
73.1%13.6
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Turkeytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Turkey: 81.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.221.2
57.0%
52.4%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.67.8
30.5%
33.4%23.4
🏀 Free throws19.015.3
80.5%
73.1%15.3
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/10 games with a box score before 01 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estonia
WLLLWLWWWW
Turkey
WWWWLLLWWW
#18
League position
#2
+0.5
Net rating
+13.9
103.9
Offensive rating
115.4
103.4
Defensive rating
101.5
49.1%
Effective FG%
52.4%
48.8%
Opp. effective FG%
48.3%
18.1%
Turnover %
17.1%
32.7%
Off. rebound %
36.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.30
29.5%
3-point %
30.5%
73.8%
Assist %
61.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence103.9 · 115.4Defence103.4 · 101.5Shooting49.1% · 52.4%3-point %29.5% · 30.5%Ball care18.1% · 17.1%Off. rebounds32.7% · 36.8%Free throws0.31 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Estonia   ■ Turkey
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Estonia wins
0
Turkey wins
No previous meetings.
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/25ACzech Republic89-75
29/08/25HLatvia70-72
27/08/25ASerbia64-98
24/02/25ALithuania75-82
21/02/25HNorth Macedonia84-65
24/11/24HPoland86-88
21/11/24APoland82-78
26/02/24HLithuania65-59
23/02/24ANorth Macedonia74-69
27/02/23ASweden72-71
Turkeylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/25HPortugal95-54
29/08/25HCzech Republic92-78
27/08/25ALatvia93-73
16/08/25HCzech Republic79-65
15/08/25AGermany71-73
23/02/25AIceland71-83
20/02/25HItaly67-80
25/11/24AHungary81-76
22/11/24HHungary92-66
25/02/24HIceland76-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estonia
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeL0%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%0%50%
Points / game74.370.076.5
Allowed / game81.772.086.5
Point differential-7.3-2.0-10.0
Avg total156.0142.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Turkey
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.393.593.0
Allowed / game68.366.073.0
Point differential+25.0+27.5+20.0
Avg total161.7159.5166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Greece330100%88.362.7+25.7
2 Turkey330100%93.368.3+25.0
3 Germany330100%106.082.3+23.7
4 Finland330100%95.778.0+17.7
5 Serbia330100%87.371.0+16.3
6 Poland330100%85.078.0+7.0
7 Spain32167%82.765.7+17.0
8 Lithuania32167%92.081.3+10.7
9 Italy32167%80.072.0+8.0
10 France32167%88.080.3+7.7
11 Israel32167%76.368.7+7.7
12 Slovenia31233%92.092.3-0.3
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina31233%79.082.7-3.7
14 Estonia31233%74.381.7-7.3
15 Latvia31233%75.082.3-7.3
16 Belgium31233%68.080.7-12.7
17 Portugal31233%61.775.0-13.3
18 Georgia31233%66.080.3-14.3
19 Sweden41325%83.086.0-3.0
20 Montenegro41325%73.891.5-17.8
21 Iceland3030%70.079.3-9.3
22 Czech Republic3030%67.781.0-13.3
23 Great Britain3030%69.393.7-24.3
24 Cyprus3030%60.092.7-32.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estonia1314221564
Turkey2521191984
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