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FC Porto vs CD Povoa Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Projected 84-75
Projected total 159.6
Scheduled
Position#2
Record6-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game91.6
Allowed / game81.6
FC Porto
Portugal
Vs
79%
21%
■ POR 79%■ CD P 21%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.9/10
Around normal
3.4/10
Below normal
CD Povoa
Portugal
Position#7
Record4-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game75.3
PortugalLPBRound 8· Pavilhão Dragão Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · FC Porto v CD Povoa
22 Nov 2026
POR v CD P
upcoming
19 Jan 2025
POR82
CD P60
26 Oct 2024
POR76
CD P64
05 Jan 2024
POR97
CD P81
07 Jan 2023
POR99
CD P69
14 Jan 2022
POR82
CD P55
12 Jan 2021
POR86
CD P61
Sections
Game preview & prediction
FC Porto host CD Povoa in the LPB. Pythia makes FC Porto the favourite at 79% and projects 84-75, about 160 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. FC Porto are 6-1 this season (91.6 scored, 81.6 allowed a game), form WLLWW; CD Povoa are 4-3 this season (75.0 scored, 75.3 allowed a game), form LLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Porto win
79.3%fair 1.26
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
CD Povoa win
20.7%fair 4.84
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FC PortoPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPorto
Date
Competition
CA Queluz
#8
W
110-93
110
93
+17
107avg 81
A02/10
LPB
Bonn
#14
L
74-78
74
78
-4
65avg 81
A07/10
Champions League
Benfica
#1
W
93-86
93
86
+7
80avg 81
H11/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
95-91
95
91
+4
91avg 81
A16/10
LPB
Bnei Herzliya
#47
W
86-74
86
74
+12
81avg 81
A21/10
Champions League
CAB Madeira
#10
W
93-82
93
82
+11
90avg 81
H25/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
76-78
76
78
-2
66avg 81
A31/10
LPB
Joventut Badalona
#2
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
H03/11
Champions League
Braga
#6
W
81-76
81
76
+5
no box
H08/11
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
93-65
93
65
+28
no box
A13/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-20
28-23
29-28
27-22
16-25
16-18
16-19
26-16
16-26
24-19
32-27
21-14
25-27
24-19
22-14
24-31
22-16
25-13
16-27
23-18
26-15
22-20
18-21
27-26
12-23
24-15
20-17
20-23
17-14
6-26
16-11
25-30
20-21
29-29
15-13
17-13
23-16
26-10
23-17
21-22
166.9Avg total
86.5Scored
80.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)91.681.6173.1+10.086%
Season at home (3)89.081.3170.3+7.7100%
Season away (4)93.581.8175.2+11.875%
Last 10 (10)86.580.4166.9+6.170%
Last 5 (5)81.476.4157.8+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)82.079.8161.8+2.262%
vs Similar (7)81.978.6160.4+3.371%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)91.678.3169.9+13.387%
This opponent (CD Povoa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CD PovoaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPovoa
Date
Competition
CAB Madeira
#2
L
72-90
72
90
-18
59avg 70
A24/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
W
78-61
78
61
+17
71avg 70
H30/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
W
90-72
90
72
+18
77avg 70
H31/05
Proliga
Esgueira
#12
W
84-64
84
64
+20
76avg 70
A03/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
73-69
73
69
+4
55avg 70
H10/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
69-78
69
78
-9
48avg 70
A17/10
LPB
Braga
#6
L
71-80
71
80
-9
56avg 70
H25/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
75-68
75
68
+7
63avg 70
A01/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
84-74
84
74
+10
no box
H07/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
no box
A14/11
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
20-28
19-18
18-23
26-26
22-11
17-17
13-7
30-13
18-18
21-27
21-14
16-25
25-7
17-20
26-12
21-20
18-12
19-20
15-17
12-17
17-20
23-25
17-16
22-20
14-23
14-19
21-18
12-18
16-21
23-14
24-15
19-15
19-14
23-15
23-30
19-25
15-17
13-29
22-23
151.5Avg total
76.5Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)75.075.3150.3-0.357%
Season at home (3)76.074.3150.3+1.767%
Season away (4)74.276.0150.2-1.850%
Last 10 (10)76.575.0151.5+1.560%
Last 5 (5)73.678.8152.4-5.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)69.784.0153.7-14.30%
vs Similar (1)73.069.0142.0+4.0100%
vs Weaker (26)81.071.4152.3+9.681%
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 161
Over 161
45.9%
Under 161
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
33.9%
Under 166
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
23.6%
Under 171
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

FC Porto total 81
Over 81
64.0%
Under 81
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto total 85
Over 85
47.7%
Under 85
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Porto total 89
Over 89
31.8%
Under 89
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CD Povoa total 77.5
Over 77.5
40.3%
Under 77.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CD Povoa total 81.5
Over 81.5
26.5%
Under 81.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CD Povoa total 85.5
Over 85.5
15.8%
Under 85.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread FC Porto -3
POR -3
73.0%
CD P +3
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
POR
No market prices yet.
CD P
No market prices yet.
Spread FC Porto 0
POR 0
79.3%
CD P 0
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
POR
No market prices yet.
CD P
No market prices yet.
Spread FC Porto +3
POR +3
85.3%
CD P -3
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
POR
No market prices yet.
CD P
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.5+2.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.5+2.5
FC PortoCD Povoa
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FC PortoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CA Queluz
#8
W
54-43
54
43
+11
A02/10
LPB
Bonn
#14
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A07/10
Champions League
Benfica
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H11/10
LPB
Esgueira
#12
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A16/10
LPB
Bnei Herzliya
#47
W
47-29
47
29
+18
A21/10
Champions League
CAB Madeira
#10
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H25/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A31/10
LPB
Joventut Badalona
#2
L
23-40
23
40
-17
H03/11
Champions League
Braga
#6
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H08/11
LPB
Vitoria
#9
W
49-26
49
26
+23
A13/11
LPB
82.2Avg total
42.7Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.640.685.2+4.063%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.939.484.3+5.573%-
Last 30 away (15)44.341.886.1+2.553%-
Last 10 (10)42.739.582.2+3.250%-
Last 5 (5)41.037.878.8+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)36.942.179.0-5.225%-
vs Similar (7)45.444.990.3+0.643%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)48.337.886.1+10.593%-
This opponent (CD Povoa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CD PovoaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CAB Madeira
#2
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A24/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
W
48-37
48
37
+11
H30/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
W
48-31
48
31
+17
H31/05
Proliga
Esgueira
#12
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A03/10
LPB
CAB Madeira
#10
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H10/10
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A17/10
LPB
Braga
#6
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H25/10
LPB
Vitoria
#9
L
28-39
28
39
-11
A01/11
LPB
Portimonense
#11
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H07/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#5
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A14/11
LPB
74.7Avg total
37.6Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.537.477.0+2.150%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.836.279.1+6.675%-
Last 30 away (14)35.838.874.6-3.021%-
Last 10 (10)37.637.174.7+0.550%-
Last 5 (5)33.038.071.0-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)33.040.773.7-7.70%-
vs Similar (1)39.032.071.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker (26)40.337.377.6+3.054%-
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
FC Portotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

FC Porto: 86.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.118.4
49.6%
51.1%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.5
36.5%
31.9%34.5
🏀 Free throws20.014.8
74.0%
71.1%14.8
They take 68.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
CD Povoatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

CD Povoa: 74.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.319.8
49.1%
51.1%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.76.8
25.5%
31.9%20.4
🏀 Free throws22.914.2
62.0%
71.1%14.2
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
FC Porto
WWLLWWWWLW
CD Povoa
LWWLLWWWWL
#2
League position
#7
+6.5
Net rating
+2.7
95.9
Offensive rating
82.9
89.5
Defensive rating
80.2
52.0%
Effective FG%
44.8%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
44.3%
14.8%
Turnover %
14.2%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.34
36.5%
3-point %
25.5%
60.2%
Assist %
50.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence95.9 · 82.9Defence89.5 · 80.2Shooting52.0% · 44.8%3-point %36.5% · 25.5%Ball care14.8% · 14.2%Free throws0.29 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ FC Porto   ■ CD Povoa
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
FC Porto wins
0
CD Povoa wins
DateGameScore
19/01/25FC Porto v CD Povoa82-60
11/01/25CD Povoa v FC Porto53-93
26/10/24FC Porto v CD Povoa76-64
05/01/24FC Porto v CD Povoa97-81
23/09/23CD Povoa v FC Porto76-91
07/01/23FC Porto v CD Povoa99-69
22/10/22CD Povoa v FC Porto66-75
14/01/22FC Porto v CD Povoa82-55
29/10/21CD Povoa v FC Porto60-67
12/01/21FC Porto v CD Povoa86-61
FC Portolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AVitoria93-65
08/11/26HBraga81-76
03/11/26HJoventut Badalona64-81
31/10/26AOvarense76-78
25/10/26HCAB Madeira93-82
21/10/26ABnei Herzliya86-74
16/10/26AEsgueira95-91
11/10/26HBenfica93-86
07/10/26ABonn74-78
02/10/26ACA Queluz110-93
CD Povoalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASporting CP69-94
07/11/26HPortimonense84-74
01/11/26AVitoria75-68
25/10/26HBraga71-80
17/10/26AOvarense69-78
10/10/26HCAB Madeira73-69
03/10/26AEsgueira84-64
31/05/26HCAB Madeira90-72
30/05/26HCAB Madeira78-61
24/05/26ACAB Madeira72-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

FC Porto
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW86%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %86%100%75%
Points / game91.689.093.5
Allowed / game81.681.381.8
Point differential+10.0+7.7+11.8
Avg total173.1170.3175.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
CD Povoa
LPB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL57%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%67%50%
Points / game75.076.074.2
Allowed / game75.374.376.0
Point differential-0.3+1.7-1.8
Avg total150.3150.3150.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica76186%88.373.6+14.7
2 FC Porto76186%91.681.6+10.0
3 Ovarense76186%84.476.9+7.6
4 Oliveirense64267%92.290.0+2.2
5 Sporting CP74357%83.674.6+9.0
6 Braga74357%88.181.1+7.0
7 CD Povoa74357%75.075.3-0.3
8 CA Queluz63350%87.891.7-3.8
9 Vitoria72529%68.783.9-15.1
10 CAB Madeira71614%82.786.4-3.7
11 Portimonense71614%78.789.0-10.3
12 Esgueira7070%80.397.7-17.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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